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The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted on February 1-6. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP) and Frontier were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted on February 12-14, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
18-25/5/06 |
11-15/8/06 |
20-24/11/06 |
12-14/2/07 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,022 |
1,015 |
1,012 |
1,013 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
62.0% |
55.2% |
58.8% |
63.5% |
-- |
| Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 1.6 |
+/- 1.8 |
+/-1.6 |
+/-2.0 |
-- |
| Finding /Sampling error* |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Sampling error |
Recognition rate |
-- |
| Civic Party |
52.2 [3] |
49.4 [2] |
51.9 [2] |
51.5[1] |
+/-1.6 |
71.5% |
-0.4 |
| HKCTU |
52.6 [2] |
49.1 [3] |
51.5 [4] |
51.4[2] |
+/-1.4 |
75.5% |
-0.1 |
| FTU |
54.2 [1] |
53.2 [1] |
53.2 [1] |
51.3[3] |
+/-1.4 |
80.7% |
-1.9 |
| DP |
47.4 [7] |
45.2 [7] |
48.4 [8] |
50.0[4] |
+/-1.4 |
89.2% |
+1.6 |
| ADPL |
50.5 [5] |
49.1 [4] |
50.0 [5] |
49.3[5] |
+/-1.2 |
67.5% |
-0.7 |
| DAB |
51.1 [4] |
49.1 [5] |
49.2 [6] |
48.3[6] |
+/-1.4 |
85.1% |
-0.9 |
| LP |
50.2 [6] |
48.9 [6] |
49.1 [7] |
48.0[7] |
+/-1.4 |
81.1% |
-1.1 |
| Frontier |
46.6 [8] |
43.2 [8] |
47.3 [9] |
45.5[8] |
+/-1.6 |
73.3% |
-1.8 |
| HKASPDMC |
44.8 [9] |
40.6 [9] |
-- |
44.5[9] |
+/-1.6 |
73.7% |
-- |
| AFA |
37.6 [10] |
33.1 [10] |
36.9 [10] |
34.7[10] |
+/-1.6 |
76.2% |
-2.2 |
| NWS |
51.6 [**] |
48.6 [**] |
51.6 [3] |
50.4[**] |
+/-1.6 |
59.7% |
-1.2 |
| LSD |
-- |
-- |
-- |
45.0[**] |
+/-2.0 |
41.2% |
-- |
|
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting figures of the top 10.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings, which may need to be determined by the next decimal place of the ratings.
Findings obtained in mid-February showed that, the best-known political group was Civic Party (CP) which attained 51.5 marks. Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU), The Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Democratic Party (DP) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy, People's Livelihood (ADPL) ranked 2nd to 5th, achieving 51.4, 51.3, 50.0 and 49.3 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 6th to 10th ranks fell to Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance In Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China (HKASPDMC) and April Fifth Action (AFA), with respective scores of 48.3, 48.0, 45.5, 44.5 and 34.7 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 50.7 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS) and League of Social Democrats (LSD) obtained a support rating of 50.4 and 45.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
18-25/5/06 |
11-15/8/06 |
20-24/11/06 |
12-14/2/07 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating* |
Overall ranking** |
| FTU |
54.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
51.3 |
4 |
53.0 |
1 |
| CP |
52.2 |
49.4 |
51.9 |
51.5 |
4 |
51.3 |
2 |
| HKCTU |
52.6 |
49.1 |
51.5 |
51.4 |
4 |
51.1 |
3 |
| ADPL |
50.5 |
49.1 |
50.0 |
49.3 |
4 |
49.7 |
4 |
| DAB |
51.1 |
49.1 |
49.2 |
48.3 |
4 |
49.4 |
5 |
| LP |
50.2 |
48.9 |
49.1 |
48.0 |
4 |
49.0 |
6 |
| DP |
47.4 |
45.2 |
48.4 |
50.0 |
4 |
47.8 |
7 |
| Frontier |
46.6 |
43.2 |
47.3 |
45.5 |
4 |
45.6 |
8 |
| AFA |
37.6 |
33.1 |
36.9 |
34.7 |
4 |
35.6 |
9 |
| HKASPDMC |
44.8 |
40.6 |
^ |
44.5 |
3 |
43.3 |
10 |
| NWS |
^ |
^ |
51.6 |
^ |
1 |
51.6 |
11 |
|
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* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top 9 political groups were all listed for four times. FTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 53.0 marks. CP and HKCTU ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 51.3 and 51.1 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 4th to 9th ranks fell to
ADPL, DAB, LP, DP, Frontier and AFA with respective scores of 49.7, 49.4, 49.0, 47.8, 45.6 and 35.6. HKASPDMC was listed for three times, attaining 43.3 marks and ranked 10th. NWS was listed for one time and ranked 11th.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Other than the Democratic Party, the popularity ratings of all political groups covered by our latest survey have dropped, compared to three months ago.
AFA, FTU and Frontier registered the most significant drops. In terms of relative ranking, probably due to the effect of CE election, CP now tops the list. FTU which has topped the list since May last year now drops to the third position. HKCTU climbs two positions to become the second, while DP jumps four positions to become the fourth. NWS and HKASPDMC continue to compete with each other near the borderline of recognition, NWS fails to cross the line this time. The relative positions of the other political groups have remained the same as those three months ago, including
ADPL, DAB, LP and AFA. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only include groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they have not been included in our final list."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be tomorrow, February 28, 2007, between 1pm to 2pm, when the findings of our third survey on CE election will be released. Then on March 1, 2007, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the Budget instant poll. On March 6, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, we will release the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. The above schedule does not include our release of CE election forum instant polls or election rolling polls, which will be announced by the sponsors directly.
It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert
Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.
About HKUPOP
Rating and ranking political groups
The rating and ranking of local political groups were among the earliest surveys conducted by HKUPOP. Our first exercise was conducted in July 1991, shortly after our establishment in June 1991. Today, we release again, so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development.
Elsewhere in the world, it is very natural to monitor the performance of political parties by means of public opinion polling. However, here in Hong Kong, political parties were not, and are not, legal entities. People use vague definitions, and the so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, it would be rather difficult to define political parties in a scientific or legal way. There are apparently three ways to solve this problem. First, let it be defined by the organizations themselves, meaning that those and only those who claimed themselves to be political parties would be treated as political parties. Second, let it be defined by the people, that those considered by the general public as parties would be treated as parties. Third, to avoid the problem by adopting the wider definition of political groups, instead of political parties, when conducting studies.
The surveys on political groups started by HKUPOP basically combine the second and third methods mentioned above. We first screen out the best known political groups recognized by the public, then rate each of them, and then rank them. We first branded our findings as "top 5 political groups" and then as "top 10 political groups" in order to keep pace with Hong Kong's political development. Herewith the details of such surveys:
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Between July 1991 and November 1992, our surveys of political groups were conducted on an ad hoc basis. However, we have only consolidated our research design, which comprises separate naming and rating surveys in two stages, from November 1992 onwards.
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In the naming stage, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "Please name up to a certain number of political groups that you are most familiar with." and multiple responses are allowed. In the rating stage, the question used is "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to a certain group, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate this group?"
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Starting from March 1993, the surveys were conducted once every two months but in November 2000, its frequency was changed to once every three months. It has remained unchanged since then.
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Since June 1999, the branding "top 5 political groups" was also changed to "top 10 political groups" which is still being used today.
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Regarding sample size, between July 1991 and April 2000, the sample size of all naming and rating surveys was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
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Our first findings of our political group surveys were published in the East Week, which was a magazine on political and economic affairs then. We later published our findings by fax. Then in 1996, HKUPOP published our newsletter POP Express, which naturally carried our findings on this topic. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, we switched to an on-line mode of release after November that year, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.
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