HKU POP SITE releases second round of survey on Chief Executive electionBack

Press Release on February 16, 2007

Background

In 1996, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted many rounds of surveys on the Chief Executive election, most of which were conducted after Tung Chee-hwa formally announced his intention to stand for the election. During the 2005 CE by-election, because a number of well-known political figures had declared their intention to stand, POP therefore also started our CE election polling routine. Between the end of January and early February this year, both Alan Leong and Donald Tsang embarked on their CE election campaigns, POP therefore switched on our CE election series accordingly. In our first round of survey, respondents were asked to rate the suitability of Leong and Tsang, as well as to vote hypothetically. The results have already been released some time ago.
POP today releases via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the second round of survey on CE election. Same as in the first round, this survey requested respondents to rate the suitability of the candidates to the post of CE, with 0 indicating absolutely not suitable, 100 indicating absolutely suitable and 50 indicating half-half. Respondents were also asked to vote on the two candidates hypothetically. In-depth demographic analyses are also presented, along with corresponding figures.

As of today, Leong and Tsang have already official registered for the CE election. Their nominations added together have in effect eliminated the possibility of a third candidate. POP therefore would speed up our planning of various election surveys, including feature surveys, rolling surveys and post-election surveys. We welcome sponsorship from the media and research institutes, on condition that POP's independence and autonomy would not be affected.

Latest Figures

As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the population census. The contact information of the studies are tabulated as follows:

	1996 Survey		2005 Survey		2007 Survey
Date of survey	8/10/96	23-24/10/96	1-3/6/05	1-3/6/05	2-7/2/07	12-14/2/07
Sample base	521	526	1,015	1,015	1,011	1,013
Overall response rate	43.9%	46.5%	65.6%	65.6%	63.6%	63.5%
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-4%	+/-4%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	Please refer to the relevant frequency tables

Ratings of the two candidates in terms of their suitability to be Chief Executive are summarized below:

		Donald Tsang				Alan Leong
	Sample base	Rating	Error*	Recognition rate	Latest change	Rating	Error*	Recognition rate	Latest change
All respondents	1,013	68.2	+/-1.3	97.2%	-0.5	44.6	+/-1.5	90.6%	+0.3
Political inclination – self-defined:
Pro-democracy	264	65.0	+/-2.6	98.5%	+3.4	55.0	+/-2.5	93.9%	-0.8
Pro-China	71	77.3	+/-4.4	97.1%	-1.9	30.3	+/-5.8	94.1%	-1.2
Moderate	369	68.9	+/-1.9	98.8%	+0.4	43.2	+/-2.2	95.5%	+1.0
No preference	259	67.5	+/-2.7	95.0%	-4.8	40.4	+/-3.0	83.6%	+1.9
Gender
Male	475	67.2	+/-1.9	98.2%	+0.4	44.3	+/-2.2	92.9%	+0.6
Female	538	69.0	+/-1.7	96.3%	-1.4	45.0	+/-1.9	88.6%	+0.2
Age
18-29	194	66.4	+/-2.5	97.9%	+0.5	47.9	+/-2.6	94.1%	+0.5
30-49	443	68.5	+/-1.8	98.6%	+1.3	44.9	+/-2.1	94.0%	+1.6
50 or above	362	68.9	+/-2.5	94.9%	-3.2	42.6	+/-2.9	84.6%	-1.0
Education Attainment
Primary or below	165	71.3	+/-3.6	89.2%	-5.3	42.9	+/-4.3	77.3%	+0.5
Secondary	555	68.8	+/-1.7	98.5%	+0.7	44.3	+/-2.0	91.7%	+1.0
Tertiary or above	281	65.6	+/-2.2	99.3%	+0.9	46.5	+/-2.4	96.1%	-0.7
Occupation
Executives and professionals	214	66.1	+/-2.4	99.5%	+2.1	44.5	+/-3.0	95.6%	-1.5
Clerical and service workers	225	68.2	+/-2.5	97.6%	+0.7	46.7	+/-2.8	93.2%	+2.1
Production workers	117	69.7	+/-4.0	98.2%	+2.7	42.4	+/-4.4	91.6%	+0.9
Students	70	68.0	+/-3.5	98.3%	+1.6	49.6	+/-4.3	94.3%	+2.2
Housewives	187	69.7	+/-3.0	97.4%	-2.2	44.7	+/-3.4	86.4%	+0.5
Class the family belonged to – self-defined:
Middle or above	403	68.3	+/-1.9	98.7%	--	44.6	+/-2.2	95.3%	+0.2
Lower-middle or grassroots	551	68.1	+/-1.7	96.9%	-0.1	45.3	+/-2.0	89.1%	+0.7

Results of the hypothetical voting on the two candidates are summarized below:

		Donald Tsang			Alan Leong			Uncertain**
	Sample base	Percentage	Error*	Latest change	Percentage	Error*	Latest change	Percentage	Error*	Latest change
All respondents	1,013	72.9%	+/-3%	-0.5%	15.8%	+/-2%	-2.3%	11.3%	+/-2%	+2.8%
Political inclination – self-defined:
Pro-democracy	264	58.0%	+/-6%	+5.6%	35.6%	+/-6%	-3.8%	6.4%	+/-3%	-1.7%
Pro-China	71	91.5%	+/-6%	+4.0%	2.8%	+/-4%	-3.5%	5.6%	+/-6%	-0.7%
Moderate	369	79.5%	+/-4%	+0.1%	11.5%	+/-3%	-1.5%	9.0%	+/-3%	+1.4%
No preference	259	73.7%	+/-5%	-6.0%	6.8%	+/-3%	-2.8%	19.5%	+/-5%	+8.8%
Gender
Male	475	69.8%	+/-4%	-0.3%	20.5%	+/-4%	-0.6%	9.7%	+/-3%	+0.9%
Female	538	75.8%	+/-4%	-0.5%	11.6%	+/-3%	-3.8%	12.6%	+/-3%	+4.3%
Age
18-29	194	74.6%	+/-6%	-0.7%	14.5%	+/-5%	-2.0%	10.9%	+/-4%	+2.7%
30-49	443	76.0%	+/-4%	+1.9%	14.9%	+/-3%	-4.6%	9.0%	+/-3%	+2.6%
50 or above	362	68.3%	+/-5%	-3.6%	17.4%	+/-4%	+0.3%	14.3%	+/-4%	+3.3%
Education Attainment
Primary or below	165	73.4%	+/-7%	-2.3%	9.7%	+/-5%	-3.3%	16.9%	+/-6%	+5.6%
Secondary	555	74.3%	+/-4%	-1.0%	16.1%	+/-3%	-0.6%	9.6%	+/-3%	+1.6%
Tertiary or above	281	70.7%	+/-5%	+2.0%	18.2%	+/-5%	-6.2%	11.1%	+/-4%	+4.2%
Occupation
Executives and professionals	214	70.4%	+/-6%	+1.3%	18.8%	+/-5%	-5.4%	10.8%	+/-4%	+4.0%
Clerical and service workers	225	72.0%	+/-6%	-4.4%	17.8%	+/-5%	+1.9%	10.2%	+/-4%	+2.5%
Production workers	117	72.6%	+/-8%	+3.0%	17.1%	+/-7%	-1.5%	10.3%	+/-6%	-1.5%
Students	70	83.1%	+/-9%	+2.8%	8.5%	+/-7%	-4.7%	8.5%	+/-7%	+1.9%
Housewives	187	74.6%	+/-6%	+1.3%	12.7%	+/-5%	-5.5%	12.7%	+/-5%	+4.2%
Class the family belonged to – self-defined:
Middle or above	403	73.4%	+/-4%	-4.6%	14.9%	+/-4%	-0.2%	11.7%	+/-3%	+4.8%
Lower-middle or grassroots	551	72.2%	+/-4%	+2.3%	17.4%	+/-3%	-3.8%	10.4%	+/-3%	+1.5%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** "Uncertain" refers to those who answered "neither of them /abstention" and "don't know/hard to say" in the survey.

Our latest survey shows that Donald Tsang's suitability rating was 68.2 marks, while his recognition rate was 97%. Alan Leong scored 44.6 marks with a recognition rate of 91%. As for the hypothetical voting, 73% supported Donald Tsang as the Chief Executive while 16% supported Leong. 11% were counted as blank votes.

Commentary

Basing on the results of the survey, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis:

(1) In terms of overall figures, Donald Tsang is still way ahead of Alan Leong both in terms of suitability rating and hypothetical voting, and among all demographic groups. The overall figures have not changed much since the last survey.

(2) Among the eye-catching group of self-proclaimed pro-democratic camp supporters, Tsang's support has significantly increased. He is now 10 points ahead of Leong in terms of suitability rating, and 22 percentage points ahead in terms of support rate. Among those with no political alignment, however, Tsang's edge has been reduced.

(3) In terms of support rate, Leong is still relatively stronger (or less weak) among the more educated and professionals, but their absolute figures have dropped since the last survey.

Robert Chung also observed, "About a week after Donald Tsang and Alan Leong began their election campaigns, the overall popularity of the two candidates has not changed much. However, Leong's support among the more educated and professionals, and Tsang's support among the politically non-aligned, seem to have dropped, as some supporters have become 'uncertain'."

News About POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. As next Tuesday is a public holiday, POP Site will release our survey result on February 21, 2007, Wednesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures of people's trust in the HKSAR Government as well as the Beijing Central Government and people's confidence in future will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.