HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal OfficialsBack

| Special Announcement | Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive / Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Over the last week, other than enhancing the content of the "Opinion Daily" and "POP Poll" feature pages in the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk), the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has also added a special "Collection of Findings for Ratings of Political Figures" under our "POP Resources" at our POP Site. The Collection comprises ratings of "Top Ten Legislative Councillors" and "Top Ten Political Figures" conducted by POP since 1994, listed according to names in order to facilitate readers' making reference to scientific rating figures collected by POP in the past. Just like our "Opinion Daily" and "POP Poll" feature pages, this Collection will be constantly enhanced in the future, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

POP SITE today releases on schedule the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of ratings +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. 
^ The polling cycle for this item is different from the rest. The last survey was conducted in late August and the positive and negative figures were 62% and 5% back then.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

* The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
^ This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of hypothetical support ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 64.3 marks, and 65% supported him as the Chief Executive. By using a 5-point scale, 51% of the respondents thought Tsang was doing a good job as the CE, as contrast to only 10% who held the opposite view. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 53.9, 60.8 and 65.4 marks, and 32%, 63% and 66% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 72%. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan followed behind in the 2nd rank who attained 59%. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, obtaining supporting rates of 54%, 47% and 42% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, occupied the 6th to 8th places, achieving 36%, 34% and 33% accordingly. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung, Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung ranked the 9th to 11th, as they gained 29%, 28% and 26% vote of confidence from the public respectively. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Stephen Ip and Sarah Liao scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "As the campaign for CE election begins, the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang have significantly increased. Both his support rating and approval rate now stand close to those registered in early September last year. As for the principal officials, compared to two months ago, the approval rate of FS Henry Tang, the disapproval rate of Michael Suen as Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands, and the disapproval rate of Joseph Wong as Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology, have all increased significantly, while the approval rates of other officials have not changed much. Mapped to the popularity benchmarks proposed by POP (please refer to the supplementary section of our press release on October 10, 2006), Ambrose Lee's performance can be labeled as 'ideal', since his approval rate is more than 66%. Wong Yan-lung, Donald Tsang, Henry Tang, Stephen Ip and Sarah Liao can be labeled as 'successful' with support rates exceeding 50%. The combined support and disapproval rates of Denise Yue and Rafael Hui do not reach 50%, their performance can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. The performances of all other officials range between 'successful' and 'depressing', and can be labeled as just 'mediocre". No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. It should be noted, however, that during our survey period, controversies surrounding academic freedom in the Hong Kong Institute of Education have not yet been widely reported. Their effects on the popularity of Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li are yet to be seen."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, we will release the findings of our CE election survey tomorrow, February 9, 2007, Friday, between 1pm to 2pm. Then, on February 13 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, we will release the latest findings of top 5 members of the Executive Council.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Popularity surveys of CE and principal officials

In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of top leaders and principal officials is the crux of all opinion polls. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys in our press releases of October 31, 2006, January 16 and 31, 2007. Today, we release an updated version with some editing, so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development.

(1) Development of CE's popularity survey

• From its establishment to the handover of Hong Kong, POP has continually conducted surveys to measure the popularity rating of Governor Chris Patten. After the handover when Tung Chee-hwa became the first Chief Executive in 1997, we began our popularity survey of CE Tung Chee-hwa. After Tung resigned and Donald Tsang succeeded, POP has begun to measure Tsang's popularity. The frequency of our surveys was at least once every month during the Patten era. It was then increased to three times per month when Tung became CE, until the end of 1997. From January 1998 onwards, it was reduced to twice every month.
  
  

• The question wordings used in "popularity of Governor or CE" survey are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Governor/ the Chief Executive XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Executive XXX?" and "If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for XXX?".
  
  

• Before April 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500. After that, it was increased to at least 1,000.

(2) Development of CE's popularity (performance) survey

• The frequency of our surveys was once every two months since August 2002. From February 2004 onwards, it was reduced to once every six months.
  
  

• The question wordings used in "CE popularity (performance)" survey are: "Do you think XXX is doing a good or bad job as CE?".
  
  

• Regarding the sample size, ever since the beginning, the sample size of surveys has been set at slightly over 1,000.

(3) Development of the survey for Secretaries of Departments:

• For the rating survey of the Secretaries of Departments, in between January to November 2001, the survey was conducted at an irregular basis. From January 2002 onwards, the survey is conducted once every month. For the support rates of the Secretaries based on people's hypothetical vote of confidence, it was surveyed once every three months from September 2002 to December 2003. Then it was changed to once every two months from February 2004 to December 2005. From January 2006 onwards, the survey is conducted once every month.
  
  

• The wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to Chief Secretary for Administration XXX/Financial Secretary YYY/Secretary for Justice ZZZ, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX/YYY/ZZZ?". For the support rates of Secretaries, the wordings are "If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of XXX/YYY/ZZZ as the Chief Secretary for Administration/Financial Secretary/Secretary for Justice tomorrow, how would you vote?"
  
  

• Regarding the sample size, ever since the beginning, the sample size of surveys has been set at slightly over 1,000. 

(4) Development of the survey for Directors of Bureaux:

• For the rating survey of the Directors of Bureaux, in between June 2002 to December 2005, the frequency was once every month. From January 2006 onwards, the survey is conducted once every two months. For the support rates of Directors of Bureaux, the frequency was once every three months from September 2002 to December 2003. Then from February 2004 onwards, the survey is conducted once every two months.
  
  

• Similar to the popularity survey of the Secretaries of Departments, that of the Directors of Bureaux also includes the questions of rating and hypothetical voting. The wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?" and "If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of XXX as YYYYYY tomorrow, how would you vote?" However, the two questions are asked in different surveys separately.
  
  

• Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to December 2005, the sample size of the surveys was set at slightly over 1,000. However, from 2006 onwards, this series of questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, and the sample size for each question also varies.

All the findings from our surveys on "popularity of principal officials" have been released online through our HKU POP Site.

| Special Announcement | Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive / Popularity of Principal Officials) |