HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal OfficialsBack

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| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive / Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Other than publishing a regular press release on the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system as scheduled via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk), the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today also opens a new feature page in the POP Site called "Opinion Daily", which gives the daily figures of CE's popularity according to separate polling days. This feature will continue to be enhanced, so that more research items would be included across longer time spans. Although these daily figures are prone to much bigger sampling errors, they are nevertheless very useful in analyzing people's instant reactions to important events. Moreover, since our "Opinion Daily" allows users to pick their own items for synchronized daily analysis, everybody can now make their own judgment based on their own analysis.

However, because the sampling errors of our daily poll figures are much bigger than usual, we at POP believe it is also time that we help journalists and the general public understand these concepts better. In the past, many commentators and academic researchers alike gave us pressure because they did not quite understand the concept of sampling error. We take this opportunity of launching our "Opinion Daily" to explain the meaning of different sampling errors more clearly in our webpage and press releases. We take this to be our small contribution to society in the area of civic education.

Finally, starting today, the Chief Editor of our POP Site will share his concise views with readers, via "Editor's Casual Remarks" in the homepage, from time to time in a relaxed and casual manner.

POP SITE today releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey: 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. From now on, POP will list out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of ratings +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

* The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
^ This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of hypothetical support ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 60.4 marks, and 60% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 54.9, 57.4 and 64.4 marks, and 35%, 55% and 67% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 62.8 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip followed behind in the 2nd rank, scoring 59.2 marks. Both Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao captured the 3rd place with 57.8 marks. The 5th to 7th ranks went to Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma and Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong, scoring 54.5, 52.9 and 52.1 marks respectively. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen occupied the 8th to 10th ranks, scoring 50.8, 50.7 and 49.9 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam occupied the 11th place, with a popularity rating of 47.1 marks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that both support rate and support rating of CE Donald Tsang has gone back to the 60% and 60 marks level, after their drops to record low in mid-December. His duty visit to Beijing and his recent question-and-answer session in Legco seem to have done him good. Regarding the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the popularity ratings of all three Secretaries have dropped along with CE's. However, such drops are slight, and their support rates have also not changed much. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to two months ago, their popularity ratings have mostly dropped, especially for Stephen Lam and Arthur Li. It should also be noted that although Michael Suen's popularity rating has dropped within sampling errors, his rating is now below 50. In terms of relative ranking, compared to two months ago, all changes among the Directors of Bureaux are only within two places up or down, and could be considered as nominal. Finally, it should be noted that our polling cycles for CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux are all different, so comparisons should best be made using synchronized figures."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be January 23, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest results of subjective freedom indicators will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Popularity survey of principal officials under the accountability system

In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of their principal officials is the crux of all opinion polls. Although the accountability system of the HKSAR Government was established in July 2002, HKUPOP has measured the ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments since January 2001, and then for all the Directors of Bureaux since June 2002. In September 2002, we also started to conduct surveys on the support rate of all principal officials, and to measure and release the popularity of our principal officials as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. First of all, we look at the development of the survey for Secretaries of Departments. 

• For the rating survey of the Secretaries of Departments, in between January to November 2001, the frequency of the survey was conducted at an irregular basis. From January 2002 onwards, the survey is conducted once every month. For the support rates of the Secretaries based on people's hypothetical vote of confidence, the survey was conducted once every three months from September 2002 to December 2003. Then it was changed to once every two months from February 2004 to December 2005. From January 2006 onwards, the survey is conducted once every month.
  
  

• The wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to Chief Secretary for Administration XXX/Financial Secretary YYY/Secretary for Justice ZZZ, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX/YYY/ZZZ?". For the support rates of Secretaries, the wordings are "If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of XXX/YYY/ZZZ as the Chief Secretary for Administration/Financial Secretary/Secretary for Justice tomorrow, how would you vote?"
  
  

• Regarding the sample size, ever since the beginning, the sample size of surveys has been set at slightly over 1,000. 

The development of the survey for Directors of Bureaux is as follows:

• For the rating survey of the Directors of Bureaux, in between June 2002 to December 2005, the frequency was once every month. From January 2006 onwards, the survey is conducted once every two months. For the support rates of Directors of Bureaux, the frequency was once every three months from September 2002 to December 2003. Then from February 2004 onwards, the survey is conducted once every two months.
  
  

• Similar to the popularity survey of the Secretaries of Departments, that of the Directors of Bureaux also includes the questions of rating and hypothetical voting. The wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?" and "If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of XXX as YYYYYY tomorrow, how would you vote?" However, the two questions are asked in different surveys separately.
  
  

• Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to December 2005, the sample size of the surveys has been set at slightly over 1,000. However, from 2006 onwards, this series of questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, and the sample size for each question also varies.

All the findings from our surveys on "popularity of principal officials" have been released online through our HKU POP Site.

| Special Announcement | Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive / Popularity of Principal Officials) |