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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
The survey conducted in mid-December showed that 51% of the respondents were most concerned with social problems, 42% with economic problems, while 5% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over social, economic and political problems were 7.21, 7.14 and 5.71 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, social and political conditions were 46%, 43% and 29% in respective order. Regarding people's appraisal of Hong Kong's development, 72%, 55% and 43% respectively considered our economic, social and political conditions have improved in the last 3 years, while 42%, 35% and 32% respectively believed they would become better in 3 years' time.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our survey conducted in mid-December last year, whether in terms of absolute ratings or relative percentages, people are still most concerned with social problems, then economic problems, then political problems. Such figures have basically remained unchanged over the past six months. However, in terms of satisfaction, people's satisfaction rates with the current political, economic and social conditions have all dropped significantly over the last six months, but they are still better than those registered one year ago. Such wild fluctuations are indicative of the main problem facing Donald Tsang's government, namely, insufficient consolidation of public support at its root leads to consecutive waves of challenges at the top. Looking ahead, about 30% to 40% of the people believed that Hong Kong's political, economic and social conditions would become better three years from now. This still represents positive optimism, but the figures have dropped significantly compared to six months ago – another warning signal."
Since the figures in this release come from the last tracking survey conducted by HKUPOP in 2006, Robert Chung added, "For most of the regular findings released by POP through our POP Site, we have included half-yearly averages which are also good for macroscopic reviews. Our figures on people's appraisal of society's current conditions are no exceptions, and some items also include yearly average figures. However, because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly figures rather than yearly figures."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be January 16, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will step up our effort in promoting general civic education, and enhance our POP Site accordingly. Please note that because our next regular release will be using survey findings collected in 2007, there will be significant enhancement to the figures we release in our POP Site.
About HKUPOP
Mapping people's appraisal of society's current conditions
People's appraisal of their society's current condition is always an important indicator of a society's development. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we began to conduct regular surveys on people's appraisal of Hong Kong society's current conditions. The surveys not only investigate the problem people are most concerned with, but also include people's satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions as well as their appraisal, expectation and level of concern for the above three aspects. The following is about the development of the related surveys.
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Since December 1992, HKU POP began our regular surveys on "people's appraisal of society's current conditions". The questions in the initial surveys covered people's most concerned problem, their satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions as well as their appraisal and expectation. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Hong Kong is currently facing various problems. What kind of problems are you most concerned with?", "Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong?", "Do you think the political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong has become better or worse in the last three years?" and "Do you think the political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong will become better or worse in three years' time?"
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In 2005, under people's most concerned problem, we added questions on people's level of concern for political, economic and social problems. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Please use a scale of 0-10 to rate your level of concern for the political/economic/social problems in Hong Kong, with 10 indicating extremely concerned, 5 being half-half and 0 indicating extremely not concerned."
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Regarding the frequency, "people's most concerned problem" and "satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions" were first surveyed once every two months. Their frequencies were changed to once every three months since December 2000 and then to once every six months since June 2006. For the "appraisal and expectation on the political, economic and social conditions", the frequency of this sub-indicator survey was changed from once every two months at the beginning to once every three months since February 1997. From February 1998 onwards, it is reviewed once every half a year. When it comes to "people's level of concern for political, economic and social problems", it was first surveyed once every three months since March 2005. Starting from June 2006, it is examined once every six months to cope with the changing social conditions.
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Regarding the sample size, on or before April 2000, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. Since June 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000.
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The findings from our "people's appraisal of society's current conditions" surveys conducted by 2000 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.
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