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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in mid-December showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 59.4 marks, and 56% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 34% were satisfied, whereas 19% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
25-29/10/05 |
13-17/3/06 |
19-21/6/06 |
14-20/9/06 |
18-20/12/06 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,017 |
1,010 |
1,012 |
1,013 |
1,016 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
63.5% |
59.4% |
58.2% |
58.4% |
64.1% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate** |
70% |
65% |
66% |
58% |
58% |
-- |
| Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate** |
6% |
9% |
8% |
11% |
12% |
+1% |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate** |
50% |
54% |
55% |
46% |
46% |
-- |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate** |
15% |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
+2% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate** |
50% |
51% |
51% |
49% |
42% |
-7% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate** |
15% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
21% |
+4% |
| Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate** |
42% |
40% |
35% |
35% |
28% |
-7% |
| Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate** |
22% |
26% |
29% |
30% |
35% |
+5% |
| Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate** |
35% |
38% |
38% |
30% |
25% |
-5% |
| Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate** |
24% |
21% |
26% |
28% |
34% |
+6% |
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the support rate of CE Donald Tsang falls below 60% again, while his support rating also falls below 60 marks. These figures are again record lows since he became CE, the last time being after he presented his policy address in mid-October. As for people's satisfaction with the SAR government, it has also dropped for four consecutive months, to a level registered between April and May in 2005. If we look at the five sub-indicators of government performance, we can see a significant drop over the last three months in people's satisfaction with the government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom, and in developing democracy. Meanwhile, people's appraisal of the government's performance in improving people's livelihood and in developing democracy have both turned negative. It thus follows that the popularity pressure now faced by the CE and his government might have stemmed from a variety of sources and events, including disputes over the demolition of Star Ferry Pier, incidents of food poisoning, the handling of mainland pregnant women, the trial of Ching Cheong, the pace of democratic development, and so on."
Since the figures in this release come from the last tracking survey conducted by HKUPOP in 2006, Robert Chung added, "For most of the regular findings released by POP through our POP Site, we have included half-yearly averages which are also good for year-end reviews. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly figures rather than yearly figures."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 29, 2006, Friday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures of the 2006 year-end and 2007 forecast survey will be released. Then on January 2, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest popularity figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the PLA Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments
One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of these surveys, we have explained it in our press releases of August 22, November 28 and December 14, 2006. Today, we supplement our introduction with the historical development of our sub-indicators of government performance, in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.
(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments
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Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.
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Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?" Surveys were conducted once a month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.
(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government
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In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.
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Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?"
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Also from July 1997, we began to survey people's satisfaction with the government's performance in five policy areas using the following questions: "Are you satisfied with the performance of the HKSAR Government in maintaining economic prosperity / improving people's livelihood / developing democracy / protecting human rights and freedom / handling of its relation with the Central Government?" The frequency of these sub-indicator surveys, however, was gradually thinned down from once every month at the beginning, to once every two months between July 2000 and May 2003, and then to once every three months since July 2003, in order to match the changing social conditions.
Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.
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