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Results obtained in early-December revealed that, 80% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 9% showed support. Meanwhile, 53% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 34% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 56% opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 26% supported it. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 49% gave a positive view while 35% gave a negative answer.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, and to Taiwan's rejoining the United Nations, have both remained stable in the past 3 months. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who consider 'one country, two systems' to be applicable to Taiwan has dropped slightly, while people's confidence in cross-strait reunification has dropped significantly by 6 percentage points. In between our last two rounds of surveys, Taiwan has experienced the peak of the 'anti-Chen' campaign, as well as the recent mayor elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung. However, in terms of Hong Kong people's sentiment, their net effect is just barely noticeable. For the effect of the mayor elections, please refer to the supplementary section of this release for details."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 21, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest findings of people opinions towards ethnic identity will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our press release a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which is usually based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "Focus Analysis of POP Findings".
Focus Analysis of POP Findings
The effect of mayor elections in Taiwan
The mayor elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung were held on December 9, 2006, while we were conducting this tracking poll. POP can, therefore, make use of this opportunity to study the effect of the elections by comparing the two sub-samples of respondents captured before and after the elections.
Our analysis shows that although there are changes in different figures, they are all within sampling errors. We thus conclude that "in terms of Hong Kong people's sentiment, their net effect is just barely noticeable." One should note, however, that the pre-election figures are based on 619 respondents, while the post-election figures are based on 392 respondents. Had our samples increased, and thus the accuracy of the figures, other results might also have become significant. We just cannot tell. Results of our related analysis are as follows:
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Pre-elections |
Post-elections |
Significancelevel |
| Sub-sample=619 |
Sub-sample=392 |
| Taiwan independence: Opposition rate |
81% (base=501) |
79% (base=304) |
0.566 |
| Taiwan independence: Support rate |
9% (base=54) |
11% (base=41) |
| Confidence in cross-strait reunification |
55% (base=339) |
51% (base=198) |
0.507 |
| No-confidence in cross-strait reunification |
33% (base=205) |
36% (base=141) |
| Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate |
58% (base=356) |
54% (base=206) |
0.376 |
| Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate |
26% (base=161) |
27% (base=101) |
| Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to Taiwan |
49% (base=305) |
47% (base=184) |
0.657 |
| Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to Taiwan |
35% (base=217) |
35% (base=135) |
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