|
* The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Figures on the latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
1-4/8 |
3-6/10 |
30/11-6/12 |
Latest
Change(percentage)* |
| Total sample size |
1,010^ |
1,022^ |
1,010^ |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
56.0% |
61.3% |
59.8% |
-- |
| Sample base for each question/percentage of answer |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee |
597 |
69% |
552 |
68% |
588 |
70% |
+2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee |
597 |
4% |
552 |
4% |
588 |
3% |
-1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip |
573 |
51% |
549 |
47% |
531 |
57% |
+10% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip |
573 |
8% |
549 |
10% |
531 |
7% |
-3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao |
543 |
55% |
539 |
51% |
579 |
55% |
+4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao |
543 |
19% |
539 |
20% |
579 |
20% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue |
560 |
46% |
548 |
44% |
582 |
45% |
+1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue |
560 |
3% |
548 |
4% |
582 |
4% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow |
589 |
48% |
563 |
44% |
549 |
42% |
-2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow |
589 |
16% |
563 |
18% |
549 |
24% |
+6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma |
544 |
37% |
543 |
35% |
581 |
37% |
+2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma |
544 |
21% |
543 |
23% |
581 |
21% |
-2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li |
623 |
36% |
554 |
37% |
538 |
34% |
-3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li |
623 |
32% |
554 |
33% |
538 |
33% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho |
516 |
31% |
560 |
31% |
549 |
34% |
+3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho |
516 |
31% |
560 |
29% |
549 |
26% |
-3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong |
529 |
30% |
543 |
30% |
553 |
32% |
+2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong |
529 |
23% |
543 |
15% |
553 |
16% |
+1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen |
556 |
30% |
572 |
25% |
540 |
28% |
+3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen |
556 |
34% |
572 |
37% |
540 |
30% |
-7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam |
535 |
29% |
519 |
24% |
541 |
25% |
+1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam |
535 |
25% |
519 |
29% |
541 |
29% |
-- |
|
|
* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the survey period of popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
^ Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 62.0 marks, and 63% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 55.3, 58.1 and 64.5 marks, and 35%, 54% and 65% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 70%. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan followed behind in the 2nd rank who attained 57%. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to, Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, obtaining supporting rates of 55%, 45% and 42% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping occupied the 6th to 8th places, achieving 37%, 34% and 34% accordingly. Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung ranked the 9th to 11th, as they gained 32%, 28% and 25% vote of confidence from the public respectively. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Stephen Ip and Sarah Liao scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
|
|
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that after the government announced to stop the consultation on GST on December 5, the rating of FS Henry Tang registered a significant increase while those for CE and the other two Secretaries of Departments showed no immediate change (please refer to the supplementary section of this release for details). As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to two months ago, the most significant change is the sharp increase of 10 percentage points in Stephen Ip's support rate, probably due to recent continuous drops in our unemployment rate. However, in terms of the relative rankings of the Directors of Bureaux over the last two months, there are very little changes, all within two places up or down. In terms of popularity benchmarks (please refer to the supplementary section of our press release on October 10, 2006), Ambrose Lee with support rate above 66% can be labeled as 'ideal'. Wong Yan-lung, Donald Tsang, Stephen Ip, Henry Tang and Sarah Liao can be labeled as 'successful' with support rates exceeding 50%. The combined support and disapproval rates of Denise Yue, Joseph Wong and Rafael Hui do not reach 50%, their performance can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. The performances of all other officials range between 'successful' and 'depressing', and can be labeled as just 'mediocre". No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 14, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2 pm, when the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released. Then, on December 19, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, we will release the latest results of people's opinions on Taiwan issues.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "Focus Analysis of POP Findings".
Focus Analysis of POP Findings
The effect of government's halt to GST on popularity figures
On December 5, 2006, the SAR Government announced to stop the consultation on the Goods and Service Tax (GST), when we were conducting our first tracking poll for December. POP can, therefore, make use of this opportunity to study the effect of government's move by comparing the two sub-samples of respondents captured before and after the government's announcement.
Based on our popularity ratings of CE and the three Secretaries of Departments alone, the halt to GST consultation has a positive instant effect on FS Henry Tang's popularity. Before the announcement, Tang's rating was 57.4. Afterwards, the figure sharply increased to 59.5 and the change was statistically quite significant. As for CE and other Secretaries of Departments, the changes were not as significant.
One should note, however, that for Henry Tang's pre-announcement rating was based on 626 respondents, while his post-announcement rating was based on 350 respondents. Had our samples increased, and thus the accuracy of the figures, the change in other officials' ratings might also have become significant. Of course, the above changes only reflect the instant reaction of the general public. The mid-term and long-term effects of the measure, as well as the extent to which it would affect other officials and even the whole government, remains to be seen.
Results of our related analysis are as follows:
| |
Pre-announcement |
Post-announcement |
Significance level |
| Donald Tsang's rating |
62.2（base=636） |
61.7（base=355） |
0.726 |
| Rafael Hui's rating |
55.5（base=516） |
54.8（base=305） |
0.542 |
| Henry Tang's rating |
57.4（base=626） |
59.5（base=350） |
0.095 |
| Y.L. Wong's rating |
64.0（base=519） |
65.5（base=287） |
0.187 |
|
