HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political groupsBack

Press Release on November 30, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. To facilitate better understanding of our "Top 10" series, we have included the following two pieces of supplementary information: (1) The ratings of political groups being dropped in the final stage of the rating exercise due to their relatively low recognition rates, provided that they still attain 50% recognition rate; (2) Overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over an extended period of time, which is set at past 12 calendar months for surveys on "Top 10 Political Groups". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
6-10/11/06 (First stage naming survey)	1,013	57.8%	+/- 3%
20-24/11/06 (Second stage rating survey)	1,012	58.8%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted on November 6-10. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP) and The Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted on November 20-24, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

Date of survey	9-14/2	18-25/5	11-15/8	20-24/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,012	1,022	1,015	1,012	--
Overall response rate	61.0%	62.0%	55.2%	58.8%	--
Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 1.8	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.8	+/-1.6	--
FTU	52.5 [2]	54.2 [1]	53.2 [1]	53.2 [1]	--
Civic Party	Not yet established	52.2 [3]	49.4 [2]	51.9 [2]	+2.5
NWS	51.1 [**]	51.6 [**]	48.6 [**]	51.6 [3]	+3
HKCTU	51.7 [3]	52.6 [2]	49.1 [3]	51.5 [4]	+2.4
ADPL	49.6 [4]	50.5 [5]	49.1 [4]	50.0 [5]	+0.9
DAB	49.5 [5]	51.1 [4]	49.1 [5]	49.2 [6]	+0.1
LP	48.9 [6]	50.2 [6]	48.9 [6]	49.1 [7]	+0.2
DP	46.9 [7]	47.4 [7]	45.2 [7]	48.4 [8]	+3.2
Frontier	45.1 [8]	46.6 [8]	43.2 [8]	47.3 [9]	+4.1
AFA	35.6 [10]	37.6 [10]	33.1 [10]	36.9 [10]	+3.8
CF	--	45.5 [**]	--	46.3 []**	--
HKPA	--	--	--	43.0 []**	--
HKASPDMC	43.9 [9]	44.8 [9]	40.6 [9]	--	--
CHRF	47.7 [**]	--	43.4 [**]	--	--
Article 45 Concern Group	53.8 [1]	--	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings, which may need to be determined by the next decimal place of the ratings.

Findings obtained in late-November showed that, the best-known political group was Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) which attained 53.2 marks. Civic Party (CP), Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy, People's Livelihood (ADPL) and ranked 2nd to 5th, achieving 51.9, 51.6, 51.5 and 50.0 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 6th to 10th ranks fell to Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Democratic Party (DP), Frontier and April Fifth Action (AFA), with respective scores of 49.2, 49.1, 48.4, 47.3 and 36.9 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 51.6 marks. For this latest survey, Civil Force (CF) and The Hong Kong Progressive Alliance (HKPA) obtained a support rating of 46.3 and 43.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	9-14/2	18-25/5	11-15/8	20-24/11	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
FTU	52.5	54.2	53.2	53.2	4	53.3	1
HKCTU	51.7	52.6	49.1	51.5	4	51.2	2
ADPL	49.6	50.5	49.1	50.0	4	49.8	3
DAB	49.5	51.1	49.1	49.2	4	49.7	4
LP	48.9	50.2	48.9	49.1	4	49.3	5
DP	46.9	47.4	45.2	48.4	4	47.0	6
Frontier	45.1	46.6	43.2	47.3	4	45.5	7
AFA	35.6	37.6	33.1	36.9	4	35.8	8
CP	--	52.2	49.4	51.9	3	51.2	9
HKASPDMC	43.9	44.8	40.6	--	3	43.1	10
A45 Concern Group	53.8	--	--	--	1	53.8	11
NWS	--	--	--	51.6	1	51.6	12

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top 8 political groups were all listed for four times. FTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 53.3 marks. HKCTU and ADPL ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 51.2 and 49.8 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 4th to 8th ranks fell to DAB, LP, DP, Frontier and AFA, with respective scores of 49.7, 49.3, 47.0, 45.5 and 35.8. CP and HKASPDMC were both listed for three times, attaining 51.2 and 43.1 marks and ranked 9th and 10th. A45 Concern Group and NWS were both listed for one time, ranked 11th and 12th respectively.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "In our latest survey, the ratings of almost all political groups have increased. FTU continues to top the list, but its lead has somewhat decreased. The popularity of the Civic Party is still lower than that of its predecessor, the Article 45 Concern Group, but it has clinked firm to the second place. Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre always falls outside the borderline of recognition, but it manages to get into list this time to occupy the third place. As for the remaining seven political groups on the list this time, their relative rankings are exactly the same as those in the last survey, meaning that their popularity structure has been fairly stable. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only include groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they have not been included in our final list."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 5, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when our survey on people's feeling towards different governments and peoples will be released for the first time.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".

FAQs of Opinion Research

Q: Political parties are not legally defined in Hong Kong, how does HKUPOP define an organization as a political party?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of June 6, 2006.

Q: Would HKUPOP consider including think tanks and political forums into the survey?
A: Political parties are not legally entities in Hong Kong, it may not be easy to distinguish political forums from political parties. Likewise, it may not be easy to distinguish think tanks from political forums or interest groups. We will therefore continue our current practice of using the widest definition adopted by the people themselves, in order to measure the popularity rating of different political groups.