Press Release on November 14, 2006
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| Latest Figures | Commentary
| News about POP | FAQs of Opinion Research
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| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive
/ Popularity of Principal Officials)
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| Latest Figures |
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE"
(http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
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| Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages* |
| 6-10/11/06 |
1,013 |
57.8% |
+/- 3% |
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
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As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sampling errors and sample size for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
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Sample
size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling
error for percentages*（maximum value） |
Sample
size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling
error for percentages*（maximum value） |
| 1,300 |
+/-
2.8 % |
1,350 |
+/-
2.7 % |
| 1,200 |
+/-
2.9 % |
1,250 |
+/-
2.8 % |
| 1,100 |
+/-
3.0 % |
1,150 |
+/-
3.0 % |
| 1,000 |
+/-
3.2 % |
1,050 |
+/-
3.1 % |
| 900 |
+/-
3.3 % |
950 |
+/-
3.2 % |
| 800 |
+/-
3.5 % |
850 |
+/-
3.4 % |
| 700 |
+/-
3.8 % |
750 |
+/-
3.7 % |
| 600 |
+/-
4.1 % |
650 |
+/-
3.9 % |
| 500 |
+/-
4.5 % |
550 |
+/-
4.3 % |
| 400 |
+/-
5.0 % |
450 |
+/-
4.7 % |
* Based on 95% confidence interval.
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Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
14-20/9 |
3-6/10 |
11/10 |
23-27/10 |
6-10/11 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,013 |
1,022 |
1,027 |
1,010 |
1,013 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
58.4% |
61.3% |
60.7% |
59.9% |
57.8% |
-- |
Sampling error of ratings
(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-1.0 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.1 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
-- |
Sampling error of percentages
(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Rating of CE Donald Tsang |
63.6 |
62.9 |
59.8 |
59.7 |
62.3 |
+2.6 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
63% |
64% |
56% |
61% |
65% |
+4% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
14% |
16% |
21% |
19% |
17% |
-2% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
4-7/7 |
1-4/8 |
1-7/9 |
3-6/10 |
6-10/11 |
Latest change* |
| Sample base |
1,015 |
1,010 |
1,007 |
1,022 |
1,013 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
55.9% |
56.0% |
57.5% |
61.3% |
57.8% |
-- |
Sampling error of ratings
(at 95% confidence level)** |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.4 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
-- |
Sampling error of
percentages
(at 95% confidence level)** |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Ratings of CS Rafael Hui |
55.8 |
55.6 |
56.2 |
54.9 |
55.3 |
+0.4 |
| Vote of confidence in Rafael Hui |
37% |
33% |
36% |
34% |
33% |
-1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Rafael Hui |
11% |
12% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
+1% |
| Ratings of FS Henry Tang |
63.9 |
56.5 |
57.7 |
56.7 |
56.5 |
-0.2 |
| Vote of confidence in Henry Tang |
69% |
50% |
52% |
52% |
53% |
+1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Henry Tang |
7% |
18% |
17% |
17% |
16% |
-1% |
| Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong |
65.3 |
65.7 |
64.3 |
64.2 |
65.3 |
+1.1 |
| Vote of confidence in Y.L.Wong |
64% |
63% |
64.3 |
64% |
66% |
+2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Y.L.Wong |
3% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
-1% |
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* The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
4-7/7 |
1-7/9 |
6-10/11 |
Latest change** |
| Sample base |
1,015* |
1,007* |
1,013* |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
55.9% |
57.5% |
57.8% |
-- |
| Sample base for each question/rating |
Base |
Rating |
Base |
Rating |
Base |
Rating |
-- |
| Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee |
753 |
64.4 |
571 |
63.0 |
591 |
63.3 |
+0.3 |
| Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue |
501 |
59.1 |
568 |
57.6 |
547 |
59.0 |
+1.4 |
| Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip |
592 |
59.6 |
523 |
57.3 |
516 |
58.5 |
+1.2 |
| Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao |
359 |
57.1 |
568 |
58.2 |
576 |
57.5 |
-0.7 |
| Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow |
445 |
56.7 |
581 |
56.2 |
611 |
55.5 |
-0.7 |
| Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong |
631 |
53.7 |
614 |
53.1 |
593 |
53.1 |
-- |
| Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li |
611 |
51.2 |
570 |
50.7 |
593 |
52.8 |
+2.1 |
| Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma |
417 |
52.7 |
519 |
51.4 |
522 |
52.4 |
+1.0 |
| Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen |
627 |
49.2 |
540 |
50.2 |
529 |
51.3 |
+1.1 |
| Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho |
536 |
51.4 |
566 |
51.1 |
483 |
51.1 |
-- |
| Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam |
516 |
45.8 |
530 |
48.3 |
526 |
49.4 |
+1.1 |
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* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of hypothetical support ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 62.3 marks, and 65% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 55.3,56.5 and 65.3 marks, and 33%,53% and 66% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 63.3 marks. Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip followed behind in the 2nd and 3rd ranks, scoring 59.0 and 58.5 marks respectively. The 4th to 7th ranks went to Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow, Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li, scoring 57.5, 55.5, 53.1 and 52.8 marks respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho occupied the 8th to 10th ranks, scoring 52.4, 51.3 and 51.1 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam occupied the 11th place, with a popularity rating of 49.4 marks.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has rebounded, after it stabilized in late October. Both his support rating and support now stand above 60, and the negative effect of his policy address seems to have gone. Meanwhile, Tsang's open attitude toward competitions in the forthcoming CE election could also earn him marks. As for the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system, their popularity has not changed much over the last month, both in terms of support ratings and support rates. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to two months ago, only Arthur Li's support rating registered a significant increase, all other changes are within sampling errors. In terms of relative ranking, all changes are also within two places up or down, and could be considered as nominal. Among all principal officials, Wong Yan-lung and Ambrose Lee's ratings have remained above 60 for a long time, while that of Stephen Lam has remained under 50 for a long time. It should be noted, however, that our polling cycles for CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux are all different, so comparisons should best be made using synchronized figures."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be November 21, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest ratings of top 5 non-official members of Executive Council will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: There are a number of column articles recently, on the functions of polls and public opinion. Does HKUPOP have any comment?
A: We notice that there are at least five newspaper column articles recently on the above-mentioned topic, written separately by Timothy Wong, Jasper Tsang and Audrey Eu, between November 4 and 13. Because those articles contain no criticism on the professional standards and ethics of HKUPOP, we do not see the need to respond to them. We actually welcome more experts and scholars to join the discussion. We also hope during such discussions, attention would also be drawn to the lack of professional standards for public opinion research in Hong Kong. As a result, the media and the research organizations often neglect the distinction between professional and unprofessional polls in their dissemination and reporting. What is more, quite a number of those who criticizes opinion polls themselves produce or encourage sub-standard polls, like IVR polls and casual street polls, and refuse to disclose methodological details of such polls. As a matter of fact, with the proliferation of the internet these days, it is so easy to search and find professional standards for opinion polling around the world. A quick glance through them would easily show us the responsibility of the media and the researchers, as well as the functions and limitations of instant and tracking polls. HKUPOP hereby recommends the following websites to the reader, in order to enrich the discussion -
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|
| Latest Figures | Commentary
| News about POP | FAQs of Opinion Research
|
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive
/ Popularity of Principal Officials)
|
|
