HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

Press Release on November 2, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors. To facilitate better understanding of our "Top 10" series, since November 2005 we have included the following two pieces of supplementary information in our releases: (1) The ratings of Legislative Councillors dropped in the final stage of the rating exercise due to their relatively low recognition rates, provided that they still attain 50% recognition rate; (2) Overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over an extended period of time, which is set at past 12 calendar months for surveys on "Top 10 Legislative Councillors". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2005. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
3-6/10/06 (First stage naming survey)	1,022	61.3%	+/- 3%
23-27/10/06 (Second stage rating survey)	1,010	59.9%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-October. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Martin Lee, Leung Kwok-hung, Audrey Eu, Emily Lau and Lee Cheuk-yan were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late-October, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	9-13/11/05	16-20/1/06	18-21/4/06	14-21/7/06	23-27/10/06	Latest change
Sample base	1,016	1,011	1,015	1,006	1,010	--
Overall response rate	64.1%	61.0%	59.5%	57.1%	59.9%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.8	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.8	+/-1.6	--
Rita Fan	65.1 [1]	62.0 [1]	65.4 [1]	62.6 [1]	63.5 [1]	+0.9
Audrey Eu	61.8 [2]	57.4 [**]	57.6 [2]	58.0 [2]	57.0 [2]	-1.0
Selina Chow	57.5 [3]	54.6 [2]	56.4 [3]	57.5 [3]	55.9 [3]	-1.6
Albert Ho	--	--	--	--	53.9 [4]	--
James Tien	55.5 [4]	51.3 [4]	55.6 [4]	52.5 [4]	53.3 [5]	+0.8
Lee Cheuk-yan	54.5 [5]	52.3 [3]	54.3 [5]	52.4 [5]	52.3 [6]	-0.1
Jasper Tsang	49.7 [7]	48.9 [5]	50.9 [6]	48.3 [6]	49.1 [7]	+0.8
Emily Lau	48.9 [8]	43.3 [9]	48.2 [7]	43.7 [8]	48.7 [8]	+5.0
Martin Lee	51.0 [6]	46.6 [6]	48.2 [8]	44.6 [7]	46.4 [9]	+1.8
Leung Kwok-hung	35.1 [10]	30.8 [10]	33.4 [10]	29.4 [10]	30.6 [10]	+1.2
Alan Leong	--	--	--	--	58.5 [**]	--
Lee Wing-tat	51.0 [**]	45.9 [7]	51.5 [**]	48.7 [**]	50.7 [**]	+2.0
Albert Cheng	46.4 [9]	44.1 [8]	44.5 [9]	42.7 [9]	--	--
Tam Yiu-chung	--	--	--	51.9 [**]	--	--
Ma Lik	50.3 [**]	48.8 [**]	51.0 [**]	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of the survey are shown but not counted.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings within the top 10.

The latest survey conducted in late-October showed that Rita Fan was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 63.5 marks. Audrey Eu followed behind with 57.0 marks. Selina Chow, Albert Ho and James Tien occupied the 3rd to 5th ranks, with 55.9, 53.9 and 53.3 marks correspondingly. Lee Cheuk-yan, Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau and Martin Lee ranked 6th to 9th, scoring 52.3, 49.1, 48.7 and 46.4 marks respectively. The 10th rank fell to Leung Kwok-hung who scored 30.6 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 56.7 marks, while that for the top 10 was 51.1 marks. For this latest survey, Alan Leong and Lee Wing-tat obtained support ratings of 58.5 and 50.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	16-20/1/06	18-21/4/06	14-21/7/06	23-27/10/06	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Rita Fan	62.0	65.4	62.6	63.5	4	63.4	1
Selina Chow	54.6	56.4	57.5	55.9	4	56.1	2
James Tien	51.3	55.6	52.5	53.3	4	53.2	3
Lee Cheuk-yan	52.3	54.3	52.4	52.3	4	52.8	4
Jasper Tsang	48.9	50.9	48.3	49.1	4	49.3	5
Martin Lee	46.6	48.2	44.6	46.4	4	46.4	6
Emily Lau	43.3	48.2	43.7	48.7	4	46.0	7
Leung Kwok-hung	30.8	33.4	29.4	30.6	4	31.0	8
Audrey Eu	--	57.6	58.0	57.0	3	57.5	9
Albert Cheng	44.1	44.5	42.7	--	3	43.8	10
Albert Ho	--	--	--	53.9	1	53.9	11
Lee Wing-tat	45.9	--	--	--	1	45.9	12

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that eight Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Rita Fan in the top rank achieving an average rating of 63.4 marks, Selina Chow ranking 2nd attaining 56.1 marks, James Tien and Lee Cheuk-yan who ranked 3rd and 4th with respective scores of 53.2 and 52.8 marks, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee, Emily Lau and Leung Kwok-hung at the 5th to 8th ranks, attaining 49.3, 46.4, 46.0 and 31.0 marks correspondingly. Audrey Eu and Albert Cheng were both listed for three times, they occupied the 9th and 10th ranks. Albert Ho and Lee Wing-tat were both listed for one time, they occupied the 11th and 12th ranks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the rankings of Legco members in the Top 10 list have not changed much. Albert Cheng, who ranked 9th in the last survey, has dropped out of the list due to relatively low recognition rate, while Albert Ho, who was never on the list before, has leaped through the recognition threshold to become 4th. The rankings of all others have changed marginally within two places, while those of the top three have not changed at all. Rita Fan continues to top the list, followed by Audrey Eu and then Selina Chow. All three are females representing different political forces. This itself reflects the diversity of Hong Kong society. One interesting finding of this survey is that although Alan Leong cannot make it to the Top 10 due to his relative low recognition rate, his support rating is in fact higher than that of Audrey Eu who is in the 2nd place. Shall Leong one day enter the Top 10 after reaching the recognition threshold, he may well become one of the top three. It should be noted that this list of 'Top 10 Legislative Councillors' includes only those who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'Top 10' list by design."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be November 7, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released. Then on November 9, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest figures of people's appraisal of local news media.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors survey

The Legislative Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Legislative Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since 1992. In our survey, we first screen out the best-known legislative councillors recognized by the public, then rate each of them, and then rank them. The development of this survey series is as follows:

Starting from October 1992, the surveys are conducted once every three months, without any change.

Our research design comprises separate naming and rating surveys in two stages. In the naming stage, in between 1992 and 1993, the wordings used in the questionnaire were "Please name up to 5 Legislative Councillors that you are most familiar with." From 1994 onwards, the wordings used in the questionnaire become "Please name up to 10 Legislative Councillors that you are most familiar with." In the rating stage, since the beginning, the question used is "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?"

Regarding sample size, from the beginning to March 2000, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, the sample size was increased to at least 1,000.

Our first findings of our political group surveys were published in the East Week, which was a magazine on political and economic affairs then. We later published our findings by fax. Then in 1996, HKUPOP published our newsletter POP Express, which naturally carried our findings on this topic. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, we switched to an on-line mode of release since then, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.