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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in late October showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 59.7 marks, and 61% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 41% were satisfied, whereas 17% were dissatisfied.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that while people's satisfaction with the SAR Government has remained almost unchanged over the last month, their dissatisfaction rate has significantly increased. On the whole, the government's popularity now is roughly the same as that in mid-2005, when Donald Tsang became CE. As for Tsang's own popularity, after going down upon the delivery of the policy address, his popularity has somewhat stabilized. His support rate now goes back to 61%, while his support rating remains close to 60 marks. The CE has obviously missed the opportunity to boost his popularity with the policy address. Assuming no crisis or sudden event is going to set in, his next opportunity to boost his popularity would probably be his own re-election. From CH Tung's re-election in 2002, we know that the lack of competition for any CE election would only weaken the mandate of a candidate. Whoever wins would have a hard time to revitalize his or her own popularity."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be November 2, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest rating of the top 10 legislative councilors will be released. Then on November 7, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems".
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
CE's popularity survey
In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of their supreme leaders is the crux of all opinion polls. Soon after the establishment of HKUPOP, we immediately measured the popularity of our top leader as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. We began our "Governor rating surveys" in April 1992, which became "Chief Executive rating surveys" after the handover. The development of this survey is as follows:
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From its establishment to the handover of Hong Kong, HKUPOP continually conducted surveys to measure the popularity ratings of Governor Chris Patten. After the handover in 1997, when Tung Chee-hwa became the first Chief Executive, we began our popularity survey of CE Tung Chee-hwa. After Tung resigned and Donald Tsang took over, we began our popularity survey of CE Donald Tsang. The frequency of our surveys was at least once per month during the period of Governor Chris Patten. It was then changed to three times per month when Tung became CE, until the end of 1997. From January 1998 onwards, the survey is conducted twice every month.
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The wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to Governor/Chief Executive XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate Governor/Chief Executive
XXX?"
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Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. Since April 17, 2000, the sample size was increased to at least 1000.
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The findings from our surveys on "popularity ratings of Governor/Chief Executive" conducted on or before December 1999 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings of January 2000 onward are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.
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