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In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, findings of the instant poll and follow-up survey are summarized below:
| Date of follow-up survey (FU survey) |
23-24/10/06 |
| Sample base |
507 |
| Overall response rate |
61.8% |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 4% |
| Date of instant poll |
11/10/06 |
| Sample base |
1,027 |
| Overall response rate |
60.7% |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 3% |
| How satisfied are you with Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's Policy Address?** |
| FU survey |
Satisfied |
26% |
Half-half |
41% |
Dissatisfied |
23% |
DK/HS |
10% |
Total |
100% |
| Instant poll^ |
Satisfied |
30% |
Half-half |
37% |
Dissatisfied |
22% |
DK/HS |
11% |
Total |
100% |
| FU survey |
Satisfied |
29% |
Half-half |
46% |
Dissatisfied |
25% |
-- |
-- |
Total |
100% |
| Instant poll^^ |
Satisfied |
34% |
Half-half |
42% |
Dissatisfied |
25% |
-- |
-- |
Total |
100% |
| It is proposed that most resources would be allocated to subsidizing drivers to change to use environmental-friendly vehicles in today's Policy Address, as well as to kindergartens and parents, do you agree or disagree with these measures? |
| FU survey |
Agree |
56% |
Half-half |
17% |
Disagree |
22% |
DK/HS |
6% |
Total |
100% |
| Instant poll# |
Agree |
67% |
Half-half |
14% |
Disagree |
14% |
DK/HS |
5% |
Total |
100% |
| The Chief Executive mentioned that he would not set a statutory minimum wage through legislative means at the moment, but would encourage the cleansing and guarding services sectors to join the "Wage Protection Movement". If the Movement fails to yield satisfactory results in two years' time, he will set out to prepare for the introduction of legislation for a minimum wage in these two sectors. Do you agree or disagree with these measures? |
| FU survey |
Agree |
55% |
Half-half |
7% |
Disagree |
33% |
DK/HS |
5% |
Total |
100% |
| Instant poll# |
Agree |
54% |
Half-half |
9% |
Disagree |
34% |
DK/HS |
4% |
Total |
100% |
| The Policy Address did not mention the Goods and Services Tax (GST) at all. Do you agree or disagree with this approach? |
| FU survey |
Agree |
45% |
Half-half |
7% |
Disagree |
43% |
DK/HS |
5% |
Total |
100% |
| Instant poll# |
Agree |
51% |
Half-half |
11% |
Disagree |
32% |
DK/HS |
6% |
Total |
100% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ Excluding respondents who had not heard of the policy address, the sub-sample size of this question is thus 445 only, with sampling errors increasing to +/- 5% accordingly.
^^ Excluding respondents who said they would not answer because they had not heard of or did not know the content of the policy address, the sub-sample size of this question is thus 397 only. Because of the smaller sample size, the sampling error has increased accordingly.
# The sub-sample size of these questions is 530-582, sampling errors increase to +/- 4% accordingly.
The follow-up survey suggested that, two weeks after the announcement of the Policy Address, 26% of the respondents were satisfied with the contents of the address, 41% said "half-half", and 23% were dissatisfied. With regard to what were mentioned by CE Donald Tsang in his Policy Address, namely subsidizing drivers to change to use environmental-friendly vehicles as well as to kindergartens and parents, encouraging the cleansing and guarding services sectors to join the "Wage Protection Movement", and not mentioning the Goods and Services Tax (GST) at all in the Policy Address, a respective of 56%, 55% and 45% of the respondents agreed with Donald Tsang's measures or approach, while 22%, 33% and 43% respectively disagreed.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "People's satisfaction with the policy addresses usually drops after some public debates, this year is no exception. Our instant poll conducted on the day of the policy address shows that only 30% of those who have heard the address were satisfied. It goes up to 34% if we eliminate those without any opinion. Now, about two weeks later, people's general satisfaction rate is 26%, and if we eliminate those without any opinion, it goes up to 29%. That means there is a drop of about 5 percentage points in satisfaction rate between instant and matured opinions. As for the three specific policies covered in our surveys, other than that on minimum wages, the other two have both registered significant drops in support rate. Although our latest survey on CE's popularity is still going on, the results of this follow-up survey seem to indicate that this year's policy address has not given Donald Tsang any popularity gain."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be October 31, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released. Then on November 2, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest rating of the top 10 legislative councilors.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
The development of Policy Address follow-up surveys
In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the Policy Address and the Budget Speech are delivered. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. Since the establishment of HKSAR, we began our first Policy Address follow-up survey in October 1997, and our operation has not changed much since then. By "follow-up survey", we mean a survey which is conducted after several weeks when the Policy Address is announced, in order to gauge people's more matured reaction. The development of our Policy Address follow-up surveys is as follows:
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Our follow-up surveys mainly repeat questions from the instant poll that asked for people's overall appraisal of the Address, and tackle the ad hoc questions designed to match the content of this year's Policy Address. As an example, the questions of instant poll 2006 are:
- How satisfied are you with Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's Policy Address?
- Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your degree of satisfaction of the policy address delivered by Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen today, with 0 indicating very dissatisfied, 100 indicating very satisfied and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate his first Policy Address?
- Has your confidence in the future of Hong Kong increased or decreased after Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen issued his second Policy Address?
- It is proposed that most resources would be allocated to subsidizing drivers to change to use environmental-friendly vehicles in today's Policy Address, as well as to kindergartens and parents, do you agree or disagree with these measures?
- The Chief Executive mentioned that he would not set a statutory minimum wage through legislative means at the moment, but would encourage the cleansing and guarding services sectors to join the "Wage Protection Movement". If the Movement fails to yield satisfactory results in two years' time, he will set out to prepare for the introduction of legislation for a minimum wage in these two sectors. Do you agree or disagree with these measures?
- The Policy Address did not mention the Goods and Services Tax (GST) at all. Do you agree or disagree with this approach?
- This year, the theme of CE's Policy Address is "Proactive Pragmatic Always People First". Do you think this theme concurs with the current needs of the society?
- Donald Tsang says that no matter who becomes the next CE, he/she needs to face three challenges, including sustainable economic development, constitutional development, and development of a harmonious society. If Donald Tsang continues to be the next CE, do you think he can tackle the problem of sustainable economic development/constitutional development/development of a harmonious society well?
As for the follow-up survey, it only includes the above-mentioned Questions 1, 4-6 in the instant poll.
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Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to January 2005, it was set at slightly over 1,000. From October 2005 onwards, the sample size has been set at slightly over 500.
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The findings from our Policy Address instant surveys conducted on or before November 2000 have been published in our newsletter POP Express, and they are available in our POP Site in various formats.
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