Press Release on October 12, 2006
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| Latest Figures | Commentary
| News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (People's
Instant Reaction to the Second Policy Address of Donald Tsang Yam-kuen/Popularity
of Chief Executive)
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| Latest Figures |
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE"
(http://hkupop.pori.hk)
the findings of an instant survey on people's reactions towards the Policy Address, including the latest rating of the CE, and people's satisfaction with his policy direction. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
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| Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages* |
| 11/10/06 |
1,027 |
60.7% |
+/- 3% |
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
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In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. With respect to people's instant reactions towards the contents of Donald Tsang's second Policy Address, findings are summarized below:
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| Date of survey |
11/10/06 |
| Sample base |
1,027 |
| Sub-sample size |
530-582 |
| Overall response rate |
60.7% |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-4% |
| This year, the theme of CE's Policy Address is "Proactive Pragmatic Always People First". Do you think this theme concurs with
the current needs of the society? |
| Yes |
71% |
Half-half |
10% |
No |
14% |
Don't know / Hard to say |
6% |
Total |
100% |
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It is proposed that most resources would be allocated to subsidizing drivers to change to use environmental-friendly vehicles in today's Policy Address, as well as to kindergartens and parents, do you agree or disagree with these measures?
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| Yes |
67% |
Half-half |
14% |
No |
14% |
Don't know / Hard to say |
5% |
Total |
100% |
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The Chief Executive mentioned that he would not set a statutory minimum wage through legislative means at the moment, but would encourage the cleansing and guarding services sectors to join the "Wage Protection Movement". If the Movement fails to yield satisfactory results in two years' time, he will set out to prepare for the introduction of legislation for a minimum wage in these two sectors. Do you agree or disagree with these measures?
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| Yes |
54% |
Half-half |
9% |
No |
34% |
Don't know / Hard to say |
4% |
Total |
100% |
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The Policy Address did not mention the Goods and Services Tax (GST) at all. Do you agree or disagree with this approach?
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| Yes |
51% |
Half-half |
11% |
No |
32% |
Don't know / Hard to say |
6% |
Total |
100% |
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Donald Tsang says that no matter who becomes the next CE, he/she needs to face three challenges, including sustainable economic development, constitutional development, and development of a harmonious society. If Donald Tsang continues to be the next CE, do you think he can tackle the problem of sustainable economic development/constitutional development/development of a harmonious society well?
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Sustainable economic development |
Constitutional development |
Development of a harmonious society |
| Can |
44% |
Can |
22% |
Can |
40% |
| Cannot |
24% |
Cannot |
53% |
Cannot |
30% |
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
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The instant survey suggested that 71% of the respondents perceived the theme of this year's Policy Address "Proactive Pragmatic Always People First" to be in line with the current needs of society, 14% thought the opposite. With regard to the proposal that most resources would be allocated to subsidizing drivers to change to use environmental-friendly vehicles, as well as to kindergartens and parents, a respective of 67% and 14% of the respondents agreed and disagreed with these measures. Meanwhile, the Chief Executive mentioned that he would not set a statutory minimum wage through legislative means at the moment, but would encourage the cleansing and guarding services sectors to join the "Wage Protection Movement", and if the Movement failed to yield satisfactory results in two years' time, he would set out to prepare for the introduction of legislation for a minimum wage in these two sectors. For this, 54% agreed with these measures whereas 34% disagreed. Since the Policy Address did not mention the Goods and Services Tax (GST) at all, 51% agreed with this approach, but 32% disagreed. Finally, Donald Tsang said that no matter who became the next CE, he/she needed to face three challenges, including sustainable economic development, constitutional development, and development of a harmonious society. If Donald Tsang continues to be the next CE, a respective of 44%, 22% and 40% of the respondents thought he could tackle the problem of sustainable economic development, constitutional development and development of a harmonious society well, whereas 24%, 53% and 30% of the respondents thought Donald Tsang could not tackle these problems in corresponding order.
In terms of people's overall rating of the Policy Address, as well as the change of their confidence towards Hong Kong's future, the figures are summarized below:
| Date
of survey |
Sub-sample base# |
Overall response rate |
Sampling error of rating* |
Sampling error of %* |
Appraisal of Policy Address: Satisfaction rate** |
Appraisal of Policy Address: Half-half |
Appraisal
of Policy Address: Dissatisfaction rate** |
Satisfaction rating of Policy Address |
| 11/10/06^ |
445 |
60.7% |
+/-
2.0 |
+/- 5% |
30% |
37% |
22% |
55.8 |
| 12/10/05 |
377 |
66.1% |
+/- 1.9 |
+/- 5% |
48% |
33% |
9% |
66.4 |
| 12/1/05 |
391 |
66.5% |
+/- 2.4 |
+/- 5% |
38% |
30% |
20% |
56.3 |
| 7/1/04 |
381 |
67.5% |
+/- 2.4 |
+/- 5% |
25% |
26% |
33% |
49.3 |
| 8/1/03^^ |
377 |
67.3% |
+/- 2.6 |
+/- 5% |
22% |
29% |
27% |
51.6 |
| 10/10/01 |
433 |
66.0% |
+/- 2.2 |
+/- 5% |
29% |
33% |
27% |
56.7 |
| 11/10/00 |
262 |
69.7% |
+/- 2.8 |
+/- 6% |
25% |
28% |
31% |
55.2 |
| 6/10/99 |
236 |
54.5% |
+/- 2.8 |
+/- 6% |
31% |
30% |
25% |
57.3 |
| 7/10/98 |
508 |
56.5% |
-- |
+/- 4% |
22% |
35% |
35% |
-- |
| 8/10/97 |
534 |
62.9% |
-- |
+/- 4% |
45% |
30% |
14% |
-- |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Excluding respondents who said they would not answer because they had not heard of or did not know the content of the policy address. Because of the smaller sample size, the sampling error has increased accordingly.
^ This row of figures is slightly different from the original release, which eliminated the 「don't know」 answers.
^^ The 2003 Policy Address instant poll was conducted for two days. Only figures registered in the first day of fieldwork are listed in this table for direct comparison and analysis. Aggregate results are available in our 「HKU POP SITE」.
| Date of survey |
Sub-sample base# |
Overall response rate |
Sampling error of %* |
Effect of the Policy Address onone's confidence
in HK's future |
| Increased |
Unchanged |
Decreased
|
Don't
know
/ Hard to Say |
| 11/10/06 |
431 |
60.7% |
+/- 5% |
25% |
51% |
16% |
8% |
| 12/10/05 |
476 |
66.1% |
+/- 5% |
54% |
33% |
5% |
8% |
| 12/1/05 |
658 |
66.5% |
+/- 4% |
34% |
41% |
12% |
14% |
| 7/1/04 |
602 |
67.5% |
+/- 4% |
32% |
40% |
16% |
12% |
| 8/1/03^ |
513 |
67.3% |
+/- 4% |
25% |
40% |
22% |
14% |
| 10/10/01 |
591 |
66.0% |
+/- 4% |
22% |
50% |
21% |
7% |
| 11/10/00 |
292 |
69.7% |
+/- 6% |
22% |
40% |
15% |
22% |
| 6/10/99 |
233 |
54.5% |
+/- 6% |
40% |
36% |
16% |
8% |
| 7/10/98 |
505 |
56.5% |
+/- 4% |
21% |
52% |
22% |
5% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Excluding respondents who said they would not answer because they had not heard of the policy address. Because of the smaller sample size, the sampling error has increased accordingly.
^ The 2003 Policy Address instant poll was conducted for two days. Only figures registered in the first day of fieldwork are listed in this table for direct comparison and analysis. Aggregate results are available in our "HKU POP SITE".
Results showed that, among sub-sample of respondents who had heard of the Policy Address, 30% were satisfied with it, 37% opted for 「half-half」 and 22% were dissatisfied, while the average rating registered for the Policy Address was 55.8 marks. Besides, excluding those who said they would not answer because they did not know the content of the policy address, 25% said their confidence in the future of Hong Kong had increased, 51% opted for 「no change」, whilst 16% said their confidence had dropped.
Recent figures on Donald Tsang's popularity are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
21-23/8 |
1-7/9 |
14-20/9 |
3-6/10 |
11/10 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,019 |
1,007 |
1,013 |
1,022 |
1,027 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
57.7% |
57.5% |
58.4% |
61.3% |
60.7% |
-- |
Sampling error of
ratings
(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.0 |
+/-1.0 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.1 |
-- |
Sampling error of
percentages
(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Rating of CE Donald Tsang |
65.2 |
64.3 |
63.6 |
62.9 |
59.8 |
-3.1 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
64% |
69% |
63% |
64% |
56% |
-8% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
12% |
11% |
14% |
16% |
21% |
+5% |
| Satisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction** |
53% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
36% |
-17% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction** |
8% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
14% |
+6% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycles for these items are different from the rest. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
The install poll conducted last night showed that, after
CE Donald Tsang announced his Policy Address, his latest rating registered
was 59.8 marks, and 56% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, 36%
were satisfied with his policy direction, whereas 14% were dissatisfied.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「People's instant reaction to Donald Tsang's second Policy Address is much less positive than that of last year. Neglecting those who have not yet heard of the Address, only 30% are satisfied with it, down 18 percentage points^. The average score given by these respondents is 55.8 marks, also down for more than 10 marks. However, in terms of the Address' general theme, main focuses, as well as the way minimum wage and GST are handled, between 50% to 70% of the general public approved. Probably because the Address is "pragmatic" but not "proactive" enough, very few people said their confidence in the future of Hong Kong was boosted, while the popularity of Tsang himself continues to drop. His support rate now falls below 60% and his support rating below 60 marks, both being record low since he became CE. It seems that he has to work much harder in striking a balance between "pragmatic" and "proactive", and elaborating the three challenges he depicted for the next CE.」
^ The figures quoted in the original release are slightly different, because 「don't know」 answers were dropped.
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be October 17, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures of people's appraisal of local news media will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
The development and operation of Policy Address instant surveys
HKUPOP was established in 1991, we began our first Policy Address instant survey in October 1992, and our operation has not changed much since then. By "instant survey", we mean a survey which begins on the same day when the Policy Address is announced, in order to gauge the immediate reaction of the people. The development of our Policy Address instant surveys is as follows:
- Our instant surveys comprise a set of core questions asked every year for repeated measurement, plus another set of ad hoc questions designed to match the content of each year's Policy Address. Core questions include CE's popularity, people's overall appraisal of the Address, and its effect on people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong.
- Regarding the sample size, since 1992, it is always set at slightly over 1,000.
- If case we have media sponsorship, our results would be released immediately, even on a real time basis. Otherwise, we generally announce the findings online through our website on the following day. The findings from our Policy Address instant surveys conducted on or before November 2000 have been published in our newsletter POP Express, and they are available in our POP Site in various formats.
Herewith an outline of our operation for the Policy Address instant survey of 2006:
- After the HKSAR government announced the date of Policy Address, we started our planning for the instant survey.
- About one month ago, we began to keep track of news about the Policy Address, in order to lay the ground work of questionnaire design.
- About one week ago, we began our manpower deployment and internal preparation.
- On the day CE announces the address, we monitored the media and the Internet, including the entire address and CE's subsequent press conferences, and then drafted the questionnaire.
- Our random telephone interviews began at 6 p.m. on that day, involving nearly 40 interviewers and staffs. The interviews finished at 11 p.m., after collecting more than 1,000 samples.
- Data verification and quantitative analyses followed immediately, together with the drafting of the press release.
- On the following day, the survey findings were verified again, while our POP Site was re-designed. Our press release was compiled, proofread, and then released for public consumption.
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| Latest Figures | Commentary
| News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (People's
Instant Reaction to the Second Policy Address of Donald Tsang Yam-kuen/Popularity
of Chief Executive)
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|
