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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings, which may need to be determined by the next decimal place of the ratings.
According to our survey conducted in mid-September, when asked to name unaided one issue that CE Donald Tsang should focus on in his second Policy Address to be announced this Wednesday, 40% of the respondents wished he would take "economic development" as his first priority, while 15% chose "labour and employment". Besides, 9% chose "social welfare", while "education", "political development" and "medical policy" took up 6%, 5% and 4% respectively, and 15% of the respondents failed to give a specific answer.
In order to further study people's expectations, another survey was conducted in early October whereby respondents were asked to evaluate each of the 5 top priority items individually, on a 5-point scale, on the degree of necessity that each item should be tackled in the Policy Address. The main results are summarized below together with those of last year. Please refer to the "HKU POP SITE" for more details:
| Date of survey |
3-6/10/05 |
3-6/10/06 |
Latest Change |
| Sample base |
1,010 |
1,022 |
-- |
| Sub-sample base |
527 |
513-515 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
64.2% |
61.3% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level) * |
+/- 4% |
+/- 4% |
-- |
| Considered labour and employment issues are "very
pressing" to be tackled |
68% |
62% |
-6% |
| Considered labour and employment issues are "quite
pressing" to be tackled |
25% |
25% |
-- |
| Considered labour and employment issues are "very
pressing" and "quite pressing" to be tackled** |
93% |
88% |
-5% |
| Considered education issues are "very
pressing" to be tackled |
57% |
57% |
-- |
| Considered education issues are "quite
pressing" to be tackled |
29% |
29% |
-- |
| Considered education issues are "very
pressing" and "quite pressing" to be tackled** |
87% |
86% |
-1% |
| Considered economic development issues are "very
pressing" to be tackled |
61% |
50% |
-11% |
| Considered economic development issues are "quite
pressing" to be tackled |
28% |
33% |
+5% |
| Considered economic development issues are "very
pressing" and "quite pressing" to be tackled** |
89% |
84% |
-5% |
| Considered social welfare issues are "very
pressing" to be tackled |
53% |
43% |
-10% |
| Considered social welfare issues are "quite
pressing" to be tackled |
29% |
34% |
+5% |
| Considered social welfare issues are "very
pressing" and "quite pressing" to be tackled** |
82% |
77% |
-5% |
| Considered political development issues are "very
pressing" to be tackled |
26% |
26% |
-- |
| Considered political development issues are "quite
pressing" to be tackled |
37% |
32% |
-5% |
| Considered political development issues are "very
pressing" and "quite pressing" to be tackled** |
64% |
59% |
-5% |
| Considered medical policy issues are "very
pressing" to be tackled*** |
59% |
-- |
-- |
| Considered medical policy issues are "quite
pressing" to be tackled *** |
27% |
-- |
-- |
| Considered medical policy issues are "very
pressing" and "quite pressing" to be tackled*** |
86% |
-- |
-- |
|
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Percentages in this column may not be equal to the sum of percentages shown in the columns of "very pressing" and "quite pressing" due to the round-off problem.
*** In 2005, it was not possible to differentiate the 5th position in the first stage, so 6 items were used in the second stage.
When asked to evaluate each item individually, labour and employment issues topped the list, as 88% of the respondents said CE Donald Tsang needed to tackle this in the coming Policy Address. Education, economic development, social welfare and political development issues followed, as 86%, 84%, 77% and 59% thought they need to be tackled in the Policy Address correspondingly.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, explained, "Exactly one year ago, we began to use a two-stage design to study people's expectation of the upcoming Policy Address, because we wanted to study both the relative and absolute importance of different policy items. In relative terms, economic development and labour-employment issues have undoubtedly topped the list in recent years. However, upon in-depth analysis, education is also rated by over 85% of the respondents as a pressing policy area, including almost 60% said it is "very pressing". These figures are even higher than those for economic development. Social welfare and political development, which rank 4th and 5th, also capture 77% and 59% "pressing". Compared to last year's survey, the urgency of economic development, social welfare and labour-employment has significantly decreased, that of political development has slightly decreased, while that of education has remained practically unchanged."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be October 10, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released. Since CE Donald Tsang will announce his second Policy Address on October 11, Wednesday, we will release people's instant reactions towards the Policy Address the next day (October 12, Thursday) between 1pm to 2 pm.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
People's expectations of CE's policy address survey
Right after the handover of Hong Kong in 1997, HKUPOP began to measures people's expectation of CE's Policy Address, as an enhancement to HKUPOP's survey series on Policy Addresses. At first, the survey had only one stage, it was expanded into two in September 2005, while retaining the basic concept and design. The development of our survey on "people's expectation of CE's Policy Address" is as follows:
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After the handover of Hong Kong and before the first CE Tung Chee-hwa delivered his first Policy Address, HKUPOP conducted and released our first survey on people's expectation of CE's policy address. In September 2005, before the new CE Donald Tsang CE presented his first Policy Address, our survey was split into two stages. From the beginning up to now, all surveys are released shortly before the CE delivered his Policy Address.
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During Tung Chee-hwa's time, the survey consisted of only one stage, the wordings used in the questionnaire were "CE will announce his X policy address. Which issue do you think he should tackle first?" Since 2005, the survey was split into two stages. In stage one, the same question is used, and the top 5 to 6 policy areas are screened out for stage two survey, whereby respondents were asked to evaluate each of the top priority items individually, on a 5-point scale, on the degree of urgency that each item should be tackled in the Policy Address. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "CE Donald Tsang will announce his X policy address. How pressing do you think he should tackle such-and-such problem?" Interviewers then probed respondents' sense of urgency for each item with answers ranging from "very pressing", "quite pressing", "half-half", "not quite pressing" to "not pressing at all".
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Regarding sample size, from the beginning to September 1999, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. After October 2000, the sample size was increased to at least 1000. For the two-staged surveys since 2005, the sample size was at least 1,000 for stage one and 500 for stage two.
-
The findings from our surveys on "people's expectation of CE's Policy Address" conducted between 1997 and 2000 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, the findings were released online since October 2000, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.
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