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The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Chen Shui-bian, Ma Ying-jeou, Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Jiang Zemin were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid-September, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
20-22/3/05 |
15-21/9/05 |
13-17/3/06 |
14-20/9/06 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,016 |
1,000 |
1,010 |
1,013 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
62.7% |
61.9% |
59.4% |
58.4% |
-- |
Sampling error of ratings
(at 95% conf. level)* |
+/- 1.8 |
+/- 1.8 |
+/- 1.8 |
+/- 1.6 |
-- |
| Zhu Rongji |
75.1 [1] |
76.2 [2] |
74.7 [2] |
74.3 [1] |
-0.4 |
| Wen Jiabao |
71.5 [2] |
76.5 [1] |
76.0 [1] |
74.0 [2] |
-2.0 |
| Hu Jintao |
68.0 [3] |
74.3 [3] |
73.1 [3] |
70.7 [3] |
-2.4 |
| Wu Yi |
** |
** |
67.9 [4] |
67.9 [4] |
-- |
| Jiang Zemin |
63.1[4] |
65.6 [5] |
64.2 [5] |
61.0 [5] |
-3.2 |
| Ma Ying-jeou |
59.0 [5] |
65.4 [6] |
64.0 [6] |
58.9 [6] |
-5.1 |
| James Soong |
** |
** |
** |
51.7 [7] |
-- |
| Lee Teng-hui |
31.4 [8] |
37.7 [10] |
28.7 [9] |
32.7 [8] |
+4.0 |
| Lu Hsiu-lien |
28.9 [9] |
38.3 [9] |
28.8 [8] |
31.0 [9] |
+2.2 |
| Chen Shui-bian |
27.8 [10] |
38.9 [8] |
25.7 [10] |
18.9 [10] |
-6.8 |
| Lien Chan |
48.5 [6] |
56.8 [7] |
55.3 [7] |
** |
-- |
| Zeng Qinghong |
** |
67.4 [4] |
** |
** |
-- |
| Li Peng |
42.2 [7] |
** |
** |
** |
-- |
|
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings, which may need to be determined by the next decimal place of the ratings.
Survey conducted in mid-September revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao were the top 3, attaining 74.3, 74.0 and 70.7 marks respectively. Wu Yi, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and James Soong occupied the 4th to 7th ranks, attaining 67.9, 61.0, 58.9 and 51.7 marks correspondingly. The 8th to 10th ranks fell to Lee Teng-hui, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian, with respective scores of 32.7, 31.0 and 18.9 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 69.6 marks, while that for the top 10 was 54.1 marks. For this latest survey, Lien Chan and Zeng Qinghong obtained support ratings of 52.0 and 62.1 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 24 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
20-22/3/05 |
15-21/9/05 |
13-17/3/06 |
14-20/9/06 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating* |
Overall ranking^ |
| Zhu Rongji |
75.1 |
76.2 |
74.7 |
74.3 |
4 |
75.1 |
1 |
| Wen Jiabao |
71.5 |
76.5 |
76.0 |
74.0 |
4 |
74.5 |
2 |
| Hu Jintao |
68.0 |
74.3 |
73.1 |
70.7 |
4 |
71.5 |
3 |
| Jiang Zemin |
63.1 |
65.6 |
64.2 |
61.0 |
4 |
63.5 |
4 |
| Ma Ying-jeou |
59.0 |
65.4 |
64.0 |
58.9 |
4 |
61.8 |
5 |
| Lee Teng-hui |
31.4 |
37.7 |
28.7 |
32.7 |
4 |
32.6 |
6 |
| Lu Hsiu-lien |
28.9 |
38.3 |
28.8 |
31.0 |
4 |
31.7 |
7 |
| Chen Shui-bian |
27.8 |
38.9 |
25.7 |
18.9 |
4 |
27.8 |
8 |
| Lien Chan |
48.5 |
56.8 |
55.3 |
** |
3 |
53.5 |
9 |
| Wu Yi |
-- |
-- |
67.9 |
67.9 |
2 |
67.9 |
10 |
| Zeng Qinghong |
-- |
67.4 |
-- |
** |
1 |
67.4 |
11 |
| James Soong |
-- |
-- |
-- |
51.7 |
1 |
51.7 |
12 |
| Li Peng |
42.2 |
-- |
-- |
** |
1 |
42.2 |
13 |
|
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* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 24 months.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
^ "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past 24 months showed that eight political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Zhu Rongji in the top rank achieving an average rating of 75.1 marks, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao who ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 74.5 and 71.5 marks correspondingly, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and Lee Teng-hui who ranked 4th to 6th with respective scores of 63.5, 61.8 and 32.6 marks, while Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian at the 7th to 8th ranks, attaining 31.7 and 27.8 marks correspondingly. Lien Chan was listed for three times and Wu Yi was listed twice. Zeng Qinghong, James Soong and Li Peng were listed for one time each, and occupied the 11th to 13th ranks.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "In terms of influence, the leader of the Anti-Chen campaign in Taiwan, Shih Ming-teh, must be well known to everyone. However, probably because the main focus of our top 10 survey is cross-strait political leaders, Shih escapes people's attention because he is not a state leader. In our latest survey, Former Premier Zhu Rongji, incumbent Premier Wen Jiabao and President Hu Jintao continue to be the most popular cross-strait political figures among Hong Kong people. All their ratings, however, drop a bit compared to 6 months ago. In terms of relative ranking, Zhu and Wen have swapped positions, while Lien Chan's position is taken up by James Soong, otherwise there is no other change. In terms of absolute ratings, Ma Ying-jeou, Lee Teng-hui, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian are all interesting cases. Ma's rating dropped 5 marks compared to 6 months ago, but his relative ranking remains the same. The ratings of Lee and Lu dropped sharply last time, for more than 13 marks, they have rebound a bit this time, albeit at a low level. Chen's rating, however, further drops almost 7 marks, after having dropped more than 13 marks last time, to less than 19 marks, which is again record low since our survey on cross-strait leaders started in July 1995. The Anti-Chen campaign in Taiwan has apparently also taken its toll in Hong Kong."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be October 3, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, when the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performances of the Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan survey
Two years after HKUPOP was established, in 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. In July 1997, we expanded our "Top 5 Chinese leaders" rating surveys which dates back to July 1995 to become "Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan", in order to further study people's knowledge and opinions on cross-strait issues. We believe that as long as people are concerned with certain issues, we should find resources to conduct regular surveys on such issues. This has nothing to do with any political orientation, but is part of opinion researchers' social responsibility. In a modern liberal democratic society, the media and survey organizations should regularly examine people's opinions and feelings towards other nations and races, beyond geographical and ethnic boundaries. The development of HKUPOP's "Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan" survey is as follows:
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Four years after HKUPOP was established, in June 1995, we began our regular surveys on the ratings of top 5 Chinese leaders. The questions include Hong Kong people's recognition and extent of support towards cross-strait political leaders. In May 1997, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, in order to increase the scope and representativeness of the survey, it was expanded from "Top 5" to "Top 10", and the results of the expanded survey were released to public in June 1997 for the first time. From the beginning to its end, the "Top 5" survey was conducted once every two months. For the "Top 10" survey, its frequency was changed from once every two months in the beginning until October 1997, to once every four months in order to cope with the changing social conditions. Starting from March 2001, the frequency was changed again and the survey is now conducted once every six months.
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Both "Top 5" and "Top 10" surveys are conducted in two stages. The question wordings are also the same. In the naming stage, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "Please name up to a certain number of contemporary political leaders in Mainland China and Taiwan that you are most familiar with." and multiple responses are allowed. In the rating stage, the question used is "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate
XXX?"
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Regarding sample size, from the beginning to the end, the sample size of "Top 5" survey was set at slightly over 500. As for the "Top 10" survey, the sample size from the beginning to January 2000 was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
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Our findings of "Top 5" surveys conducted in or before September 1996, and those of "Top 10" surveys conducted in or before July 1997, were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, our "Top 10" surveys were released online since April 2002. All previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats, while those of "Top 5" surveys would be uploaded soon.
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