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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Results obtained in early September revealed that, 81% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 12% showed support. Meanwhile, 59% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 34% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 58% opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 27% supported it. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 53% gave a positive view while 35% gave a negative answer.
As for respondents' appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, POP has been tracking people's appraisal of these leaders since 1995, but our series on Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek stopped in 2003, while that on more recently deceased leaders Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun and Deng Xiaoping continued. The most recent results are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
14-17/3/05 |
1-7/9/05 |
13-17/3/06 |
1-7/9/06 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,017 |
1,007 |
1,010 |
1,007 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
63.5% |
62.0% |
59.4% |
57.5% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
-- |
| Deng Xiaoping had accrued more merits |
76% |
78% |
75% |
79% |
+4% |
| Deng Xiaoping had accrued more faults |
2% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
-1% |
| Zhao Ziyang had accrued more merits |
58% |
62% |
57% |
59% |
+2% |
| Zhao Ziyang had accrued more faults |
3% |
4% |
3% |
4% |
+1% |
| Yang Shangkun had accrued more merits |
12% |
20% |
17% |
17% |
-- |
| Yang Shangkun had accrued more faults |
13% |
18% |
15% |
20% |
+5% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
According to our latest survey, those considering Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang have accrued more merits than faults in the development of China accounted for 79% and 59% respectively. For Yang Shangkun, 17% of the respondents thought he has accrued more merits than faults, 20% found more faults than merits in Yang, while 44% of the respondents had no idea.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, and to Taiwan's rejoining the United Nations, have both increased again after they dropped 3 months ago. These figures are now approaching their record highs registered 6 months ago. Meanwhile, people's confidence in cross-strait reunification and their assessment of whether "one country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan did not change much over the past three months. They both stand very much on the positive side. However, because our survey was conducted in early September, when the "anti-Chen" campaign has started but not yet peaked, our figures may not be able to reflect people's latest sentiment towards Taiwan. One may expect that as the "pro-" and "anti-Chen" campaigns further clash with each other all over Taiwan, the question of whether Chen Shui-bian would resign lingers, and the December contest for the mayors of Taipei and Kaohsiung heats up, Hong Kong people's sentiment would be further stirred up. Our next survey in three months would hopefully be able to map such changes. Finally, regarding people's appraisals of deceased Chinese leaders, our survey continues to show that Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang are highly praised for their merits accrued, while Yang Shangkun only received a mediocre appraisal."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be September 26, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Taiwan issues
Be it under British colonial rule or under "one country, two systems", Hong Kong has always been part of China. It thus seems natural for HKUPOP to survey people's opinion on Chinese national and ethnical issues, if we can squeeze some resources. This is exactly what we did, when we embarked on conducting the regular surveys on Taiwan issues and the appraisal of deceased Chinese leaders long time ago. We explain the development of the former series below, and reserve the latter for the future:
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Two years after HKUPOP was established, in 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. They include: Taiwan independence, Taiwan joining the United Nations, Hong Kong people's trust of the Taiwan government, and people's confidence in cross-strait reunification. By 1996, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, whether "one country, two systems" should be equally applicable to Taiwan or not became a talking point for peoples across the Strait. HKUPOP therefore added it to the pool of tracking questions. Starting from April 2000, the survey was conducted once every two months but in June 2000, its frequency was changed to once every three months to cope with the social conditions.
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In terms of wording, the 4 questions used in the questionnaire are "Are you confident in the ultimate reunification of Taiwan and Mainland China?", "Do you agree to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations?", "Do you agree to Taiwan becoming independent?" and "Do you think "One country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan?"
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Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of Taiwan issues survey was set at slightly over 500. From June 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
Our first findings of Taiwan issues surveys in May 1997 or before were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, the issues on Taiwan independence and cross-trait reunification were released online. The findings on the applicability of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan and its rejoining the United Nations were released online since June 2004 and March 2005, respectively. All previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.
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