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The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-July. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Selina Chow, Jasper Tsang, Cheng Yiu-tong, Ronald Arculli, Bernard Chan, David Li, Laura Cha, Andrew Liao and Anthony Cheung were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early-August, respondents were asked to rate each councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
4-6/7/05 |
3-6/10/05 |
3-7/2/06 |
4-10/5/06 |
1-4/8/06 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,020 |
1,010 |
1,015 |
1,019 |
1,010 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
61.9% |
64.2% |
59.5% |
60.7% |
56.0% |
-- |
Sampling error of rating
(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 1.6 |
+/- 1.6 |
+/- 1.6 |
+/- 1.4 |
+/-1.4 |
-- |
| Ronald Arculli |
Not yet a member |
** |
59.3 [1] |
58.9[1] |
-0.4 |
| Selina Chow |
58.5 |
59.6 |
57.8[1] |
56.7 [2] |
57.0[2] |
+0.3 |
| Cheng Yiu-tong |
49.8 |
51.0 |
51.8[3] |
** |
49.8[3] |
-- |
| Leung Chun-ying |
47.8 |
48.7 |
47.5[5] |
49.7 [4] |
49.3[4] |
-0.4 |
| Jasper Tsang |
48.8 |
49.9 |
47.6[4] |
48.3 [5] |
47.5[5] |
-0.8 |
| David Li |
Not yet a member |
54.7[2] |
54.9 [3] |
** |
-- |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings, applicable only to surveys starting from 2006.
The latest survey conducted in early-August showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 58.9 marks. Selina Chow followed behind with 57.0 marks. Cheng Yiu-tong and Leung Chun-ying occupied the 3rd and 4th ranks, with 49.8 and 49.3 marks correspondingly. Jasper Tsang ranked the 5th, scoring 47.5 marks. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 52.5 marks. For this latest survey, Bernard Chan obtained support ratings of 56.8 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 7 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
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* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 3 surveys.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
The overall rankings in the past 7 months showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for three times. They are Selina Chow in the top rank achieving an average rating of 57.2 marks, Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang ranked 2nd and 3rd with respective scores of 48.8 and 47.8 marks. Moreover, three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for two times that Ronald Arculli occupied the 4th rank, attaining 59.1 marks, while David Li and Cheng Yiu-tong ranked 5th and 6th with 54.8 and 50.8 marks respectively.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "After the reorganization of the Executive Council last October, the popularity structure of its members is beginning to take shape. Ronald Arculli has topped the list for two consecutive times, but in terms of recognition rate, he is still struggling with Cheung Yiu-tong and David Li near the threshold. All three Councillors have come on list for two times out of three, while Selina Chow, Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang are on the list every time. All of them together can be regarded as the better-known Councillors. As for the other 9 non-official members, some of them may have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the best-known Councillors, they do not appear in our 'Top 5' list by design. In terms of relative ranking, Ronald Arculli and Selina Chow are always among the top two, and can be considered as the more popular Councillors. Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang always appear at the bottom two positions, and can be considered as the less popular Councillors."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be August
22, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Mapping the popularity of Executive Councillors
The Executive Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Executive Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since the handover.
From July 1997, HKUPOP conducted this survey every month by asking the question "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the members of the HKSAR Executive Council?" Then from July 2000, the frequency of survey was changed to once every 2 months, and ended in May 2002.
Once every 6 months from August 2002 to February 2005, HKUPOP adopted a more specific way of asking, and the question became "Do you think XXX, YYY, ZZZ…are doing a good or bad job as the non-official members of Executive Council?"
Meanwhile, once every 3 months between July 2003 and October 2005, HKUPOP also surveyed the popularity rating for each non-official Executive Councillor. The question used was "Please rate your support of XXX as non-official Executive Councillor using a 0-100 scale. 0 stands for absolutely no support, 100 stands for absolute support, 50 stands for half-half. How would you rate XXX?" This rating exercise targeted at all non-official members and sit-in members including the Head of Central Policy Unit and the Director of Chief Executive's Office, which summed up to a maximum of 22 persons in October 2005 right before the reorganization. As for the official Executive Councillors (i.e. Principal Officials under accountability system), their rating was conducted even more frequently, and that will be explained in subsequent releases.
In October 2005, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official members to 8. To cope with this change and reduce our workload, HKUPOP has started the rating survey on "Top 5 non-official members of Executive Council" since then in order to replace the previous rating survey of all individual Councillors. This "Top 5 Councillors" survey includes one naming and one rating stages, and its current cycle is to repeat once every 3 months.
Thus this example has shown that HKUPOP would constantly review the pace of constitutional development, public concern and our research resources available, and make timely improvements on its survey method, frequency and way of release accordingly.
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