HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal OfficialsBack

Press Release on July 11, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2005. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
4-7/7/06	1,015	55.9%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sampling errors and sample size for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error for percentages*（maximum value）	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error for percentages*（maximum value）
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

* Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	4-10/5	18-25/5	1-6/6	19-21/6	4-7/7	Latest change
Sample base	1,019	1,022	1,033	1,012	1,015	--
Overall response rate	60.7%	62.0%	60.8%	58.2%	55.9%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.2	+/-1.0	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	67.1	67.2	68.1	66.3	65.8	-0.5
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	73%	74%	75%	72%	68%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	12%	10%	11%	11%	13%	+2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	2-8/3	3-7/4	4-10/5	1-6/6	4-7/7	Latest change*
Sample base	1,026	1,029	1,019	1,033	1,015	--
Overall response rate	60.4%	59.5%	60.7%	60.8%	55.9%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)**	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)**	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Ratings of CS Rafael Hui	57.5	58.4	56.8	57.2	55.8	-1.4
Vote of confidence in Rafael Hui	37%	36%	35%	36%	37%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Rafael Hui	11%	10%	11%	9%	11%	+2%
Ratings of FS Henry Tang	63.6	65.0	63.3	64.0	63.9	-0.1
Vote of confidence in Henry Tang	66%	67%	64%	64%	69%	+5%
Vote of no confidence in Henry Tang	9%	7%	10%	9%	7%	-2%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	66.3	66.8	65.5	66.7	65.3	-1.4
Vote of confidence in Y.L.Wong	62%	65%	65%	62%	64%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Y.L.Wong	2%	2%	4%	3%	3%	--

* The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	2-8/3		4-10/5		4-7/7		Latest change**
Sample base	1,026*		1,019*		1,015*		--
Overall response rate	60.4%		60.7%		55.9%		--
Sample base for each question/rating	Base	Rating	Base	Rating	Base	Rating	--
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	746	65.3	509	63.3	753	64.4	+1.1
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	699	61.2	523	58.4	592	59.6	+1.2
Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	737	59.0	526	58.2	501	59.1	+0.9
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	611	57.2	580	55.2	359	57.1	+1.9
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow	752	57.2	553	55.5	445	56.7	+1.2
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong	618	53.8	594	53.6	631	53.7	+0.1
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	625	53.2	587	52.6	417	52.7	+0.1
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	648	52.0	534	49.9	536	51.4	+1.5
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	677	52.1	461	51.2	611	51.2	--
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	480	50.9	478	48.7	627	49.2	+0.5
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	562	48.3	533	47.8	516	45.8	-2.0

* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of hypothetical support ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 65.8 marks, and 68% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 55.8, 63.9 and 65.3 marks, and 37%, 69% and 64% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 64.4 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee followed behind in the 2nd and 3rd ranks, scoring 59.6 and 59.1 marks respectively. The 4th to 7th ranks went to Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, scoring 57.1, 56.7, 53.7 and 52.7 marks respectively. Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung occupied the 8th to 10th ranks, scoring 51.4, 51.2 and 49.2 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place, with a popularity rating of 45.8 marks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang continue to drop in early July, back to the level registered in the last ten days of February before the government announced this year's Budget. If we synchronized CE's popularity figures with those of the three Secretaries of Departments, we would find that CE's popularity has dropped significantly over the past month, while those of the Secretaries have fluctuated according to different indicators. This shows that the events which happened over the past month, especially June 4 and July 1, have compressed the popularity of the CE but not other officials. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to their support ratings registered two months ago, most ratings have gone up slightly, but all within the margins of error. In terms of relative ranking, there is no change except the swapping of adjacent positions between Sarah Liao and York Chow, and between Patrick Ho and Arthur Li."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 18, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest results of subjective freedom indicators will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Would HKUPOP conduct popularity surveys on Anson Chan and Regina Ip?

The general practice of HKUPOP is to begin monitoring the popularity of government officials once they are appointed and stop once they leave office. This applies to Chris Patten, CH Tung, Anson Chan and Regina Ip. Nevertheless, counting on POP tracking surveys alone, these people may be included in our surveys via the following channels:

Be included in our regular surveys of cross-strait political figures if they have become national leaders, and if they are popular enough according to our nomination surveys;
Become councillors and be included in our regular surveys of various kinds of councillors;
Become popular enough to be included in our regular survey of local political figures;
Be included in our election surveys because they may participate in certain elections, including the election of the Chief Executive.

These surveys, however, are much less frequent and shallow compared to our regular surveys of incumbent government officials. They are therefore of less study value.

It should be pointed out, however, that POP may be commissioned any time to study the popularity of these public figures, according to our prescribed service policy. In all such projects, we require full autonomy and independence in their design and operation, and we would release our findings for public consumption upon completion of the projects.