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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycles for these items are different from the rest. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
The survey conducted in mid-June showed that 53% of the respondents were most concerned with social problems, 42% with economic problems, while 4% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over social, economic and political problems were 7.24, 7.11 and 5.71 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, social and political conditions were 57%, 55% and 40% in respective order. Regarding people's appraisal of Hong Kong's development, 78%, 62% and 52% respectively considered our economic, social and political conditions have improved in the last 3 years, while 52%, 46% and 43% respectively believed they would become better in 3 years' time.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "As the economy recovers, people's satisfaction with the current economic and social conditions have surged 22 and 24 percentage points respectively, compared to 6 months ago, which have reached record highs since the handover. People have also become more concerned with social than economic problems. With respect to the current political condition, satisfaction rate has also jumped 17 percentage points, back to that before the row over constitutional reform at the end of last year. Looking ahead, about 45% to 50% believed that political, economic and social conditions would be better than now three years later, representing a drop in optimism compared to 9 months ago. In other words, although people are quite satisfied with the current situations, they are becoming cautious about future development."
In view of people's increasing concern over the selection of the next Chief Executive, Robert Chung added, "The fact that people's satisfaction with the current economic and social conditions have reached record high is no doubt an advantage for Donald Tsang's quest for another term of office. Such developments, however, would not affect POP's operation in any way, because we have our regular routines and procedures for conducting tracking surveys and CE election surveys."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 11, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Note: During politically sensitive period, such as during election, or when several political powers are wrestling, POP is often subject to pressure and attacks through receiving telephone harassment, email attacks, curse letters, open smearing, unfair commentaries and so on. Because Hong Kong is going to step into a politically sensitive period soon, we would use this column space to explain our positions from time to time.
How does HKUPOP face external criticisms?
By nature, external criticisms can be categorized as of good will and cheap shots. Criticisms with good will can normally be resolved through peaceful discussion and information dissemination. As a science, all opinion surveys have their shortcomings, and possibly errors as well. POP never hides our mistakes and objectives of conducting any research, and we will not shift the responsibility of any mistake to our partners. Of course, all our partners and commissioning organizations have to give consent to POP's autonomy and independence in advance, otherwise there would not be any partnership in the first place.
As for the cheap shots with political intentions, counter-debate is meaningless. For example, a survey may show that a candidate is doing well in an election. If this candidate loses the election in the end, even if the difference falls within sampling errors, critics would constantly attack us for being inaccurate. On the other hand, if this candidate wins at the end, the same critics would attack us for campaigning for the candidate, and for reversing the result ought-to-be. Take another example, if POP receives funding from the government or the University, critics would say that POP should not use public money. However, having known that POP is self-funded, they would say that POP should not be part of the University. These accusations are tautologies which require no hard facts, and there are plenty of them.
POP's general practice is to answer all criticisms as much as possible regardless of their intentions, as long as they come along with their true names. However, we are just an academic research institute, with very little resources to handle public relation matters. All we want is a quiet environment to continue our work.
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