Findings of July 1 Rally onsite survey available from HKU POP SITEBack

Press Release No. 2 on July 4, 2006

Latest Figures

Since the first July 1 Rally in 2003, HKUPOP has been conducting onsite surveys of rally participants of age 15 or above, in order to investigate their background and demands. The results were then released to the public via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk). As for this year's July 1 Rally, the research team of HKUPOP interviewed 629 rally participants onsite. In that evening, the preliminary results were released to the media who had sponsored the project via private links in the POP SITE. The related link is now open to the public. Viewers may click on the "July 1 Rally Feature Page" icon, and then choose "Onsite Survey on July 1 Rally 2006". Herewith the contact information for the onsite surveys:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
1/7/06	629	85.1%	+/- 4%
1/7/05	599	79.1%	+/- 4%
1/7/04	610	85.2%	+/- 4%
1/7/03	1,154	87.2%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 of the times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Herewith the figures of some of the major questions:

Q1 How important is "fighting for democracy" in bringing you to the rally today?

Date of survey	1/7/03	1/7/04^	1/7/05^	1/7/06	Latest change
Very important	--	72%	77%	83%	+6%
Quite important	--	20%	19%	13%	-6%
Half-half	--	5%	2%	3%	+1%
Quite unimportant	--	1%	1%	1%	--
Very unimportant	--	1%	1%	--	--
Don't know	--	<1%	--	<1%	--

^ The expressions used in 2004 and 2005 were "fighting for the implementation of democracy in Hong Kong soon".

Q2 How important is "fighting for equality and justice" in bringing you to the rally today? (in 2006)

Very important	Quite important	Half-half	Quite unimportant	Very unimportant	Don't know
73%	22%	4%	1%	<1%	-

Q3 How important is "expressing my dissatisfaction with the HKSAR Government" in bringing you to the rally today?

Date of survey	1/7/03^	1/7/04	1/7/05	1/7/06	Latest change
Very important	83%	69%	43%	47%	+4%
Quite important	9%	22%	31%	26%	-5%
Half-half	3%	7%	19%	20%	+1%
Quite unimportant	1%	1%	5%	6%	+1%
Very unimportant	4%	1%	1%	1%	--
Don't know	1%	<1%	2%	1%	-1%

^ The expression used in 2003 was "the overall performance of SARG is disappointing".

Q4 How important is "expressing my dissatisfaction with the Central Government" in bringing you to the rally today?

Date of survey	1/7/03	1/7/04^	1/7/05^	1/7/06	Latest change
Very important	--	64%	60%	42%	-18%
Quite important	--	23%	26%	24%	-2%
Half-half	--	8%	8%	22%	+14%
Quite unimportant	--	3%	4%	7%	+3%
Very unimportant	--	2%	1%	3%	+2%
Don't know	--	1%	1%	1%	--

^ The expression used in 2004 was "expressing my dissatisfaction with the Central Government's policies towards Hong Kong", and in 2005, "protesting against the interference of the Central Government in Hong Kong".

Q5 How important is "responding to the appeal from Anson Chan" in bringing you to the rally today? (in 2006)

Very important	Quite important	Half-half	Quite unimportant	Very unimportant	Don't know
12%	15%	29%	23%	21%	1%

Q6 Do you agree with the slogan "Equality, Justice, Democracy and Hope" put forward by the Civil Human Rights Front?

Very agree	Quite agree	Half-half	Quite disagree	Very disagree	Don't know
60%	29%	10%	1%	<1%	1%

Q7 Rating of leaders and governments (0 = absolutely not supportive, 100 = absolutely supportive, 50 = half-half):

Date of survey	1/7/03	1/7/04	1/7/05	1/7/06	Latest change
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)	+/-2.0	+/-1.5	+/-1.8	+/-1.8	--
a) CE Tung Chee-hwa / Donald Tsang	13.8 ^	25.9 ^	--	46.3	n/a
b) Premier Wen Jiabao	62.0	--	--	56.1	n/a
c) HKSAR Government	--	32.8	44.0	46.8	+2.8
d) Central Government	--	43.6	35.8	44.3	+8.5

^ The person rated in 2003 and 2004 was Tung Chee-hwa, it became Donald Tsang in 2006.

Q12-14 Did you participate in:

Date of survey	1/7/03	1/7/04	1/7/05	1/7/06	Latest change
July 1 Rally in 2003, Yes	--	81%	84%	79%	-5%
July 1 Rally in 2003, No	--	19%	16%	21%	+5%
July 1 Rally in 2004, Yes	--	--	84%	78%	-6%
July 1 Rally in 2004, No	--	--	16%	21%	+5%
July 1 Rally in 2005, Yes	--	--	--	70%	--
July 1 Rally in 2005, No	--	--	--	29%	--

Demographic Profile of Rally Participants

Date of survey	1/7/03	1/7/04	1/7/05	1/7/06	Latest change
Gender
Male	60%	65%	69%	68%	-1%
Female	40%	35%	31%	32%	+1%
Age
15 – 19	11%	7%	4%	5%	+1%
20 – 29	35%	26%	21%	15%	-6%
30 – 39	27%	22%	15%	15%	--
40 – 49	21%	25%	27%	28%	+1%
50 – 59	5%	12%	23%	22%	-1%
60 or above	2%	3%	7%	12%	+5%
Missing	--	5%	3%	3%	--
Education Attainment
Primary or below	3%	4%	5%	8%	+3%
Secondary	41%	38%	43%	44%	+1%
Tertiary or above	56%	58%	52%	47%	-5%
Social Class
Upper class	2%	2%	2%	1%	-1%
Middle class	59%	62%	55%	62%	+7%
Lower class or grassroots	35%	30%	40%	34%	-6%
Don't know/Hard to say	5%	5%	3%	3%	--

Commentary

Results of the survey show that among protestors of age 15 and above, 88% of them "agreed somewhat" or "agreed very much" with the theme "Equality, Justice, Democracy and Hope" put forward by the Civil Human Rights Front, almost none disagreed. Regarding protestors' demands and looking at "very important" figures alone, 83% said striving for democracy was "very important", 73% chose striving for equality and justices, while 47% and 42% respectively expressed discontent with the HKSAR and the Central governments. If we look at the combined figures of "fairly important" with "very important", then 96% said striving for democracy was important, 95% said striving for equality and justices was important, and 73% and 66% expressed discontent with the HKSAR and Central governments. According to Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, the primary target of rally protestors was neither the HKSAR Government nor the Central Government.

Robert Chung also looked at the findings from another angle. Using a scale of 0 to 100, the average support rating given by the protestors to CE Donald Tsang was 46.3 marks, Premier Wen Jiabao scored 56.1, SAR Government 46.8 and Central Government 44.3. Compared to CE Tung Chee-hwa's 13.8 marks in 2003, 25.9 marks in 2004, 32.8 for the SAR Government and 43.6 for the Central Government also in 2004, and SAR Government's 44.0 and Central Government's 35.8 in 2005, the anger of this year's protestors has obviously subsided.

Our findings also reveals that among this year's protestors, 79% had joined the first July 1 Rally in 2003, 78% had joined the rally in 2004 and 70% had joined the rally in 2005. This indicates that many participants have gradually developed the habit of joining the July 1 rallies. With respect to the appeal from the former Chief Secretary Anson Chan, 12% of this year's protestors considered it "very important" while 15% considered "some what important". Robert Chung thus suggested that Anson Chan's appeal might have a positive effect on about one-quarter of the protestors, but not as important as habitual participation. However, Robert Chung added, since July 1 Rally has only a short history of four years, whether it would become a permanent feature of Hong Kong's political culture or not is something yet to be seen.