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* 「95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
^^ Expressed in one-decimal place, Tsang's approval rate last time was 75.2%, compared to this time's 71.6%. There was therefore a drop of almost 4 percentage points.
The latest survey conducted in mid-June showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 66.3 marks, and 72% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 53% were satisfied, whereas 9% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
18-21/4/05 |
25-29/7/05 |
25-29/10/05 |
13-17/3/06 |
19-21/6/06 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,012 |
1,014 |
1,017 |
1,010 |
1,012 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
66.7% |
64.0% |
63.5% |
59.4% |
58.2% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/- 3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate** |
49% |
57% |
70% |
65% |
66% |
+1% |
| Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate** |
20% |
11% |
6% |
9% |
8% |
-1% |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate** |
36% |
44% |
50% |
54% |
55% |
+1% |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate** |
26% |
17% |
15% |
13% |
15% |
+2% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate** |
42% |
41% |
50% |
51% |
51% |
-- |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate** |
25% |
20% |
15% |
17% |
17% |
-- |
| Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate** |
25% |
30% |
35% |
38% |
38% |
-- |
| Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate** |
37% |
29% |
24% |
21% |
26% |
+5% |
| Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate** |
33% |
33% |
42% |
40% |
35% |
-5% |
| Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate** |
34% |
29% |
22% |
26% |
29% |
+3% |
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Both in terms of support rating or support rate, CE Donald Tsang's popularity figures have dropped significantly in the last ten days of June, back to the level registered in February to March this year. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction with the government continues to fluctuate since February, between 50% and 55%. The latest figure registered is 53%, representing an upward move of 4 percentage points in a month. As for the 5 policy areas, compared to the satisfaction rates registered 3 months ago, people's satisfaction with the pace of democratic development has significantly dropped, while other indicators have not changed much. The government's handling of its relation with the Central Government remains to be its best-performing area."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be June 29, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest survey results related to the Handover Anniversary will be released. Then on July 4, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performances of the Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is 「Focus Analysis of POP Findings", and we will discuss the recent trend in people's satisfaction with, and trust in, the HKSAR government.
Focus Analysis of POP Findings
Recent trend in people's satisfaction and trust of the government
On June 20, 2006, HKUPOP released the latest findings on Hong Kong people's trust in the local and central governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". Figures showed that all confidence figures have not changed much over the past two months, ranging between 70% to 85%, while people's trust in the local and central governments significantly dropped, from their record high, or almost record high, registered two months ago, to that of four months ago. Robert Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, then said, 「The reasons are hard to tell, we may be able to say more next time when we know the latest popularity figures of the CE and the SAR Government."
Now that the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR government have been released on schedule, what more can we say about the changes in people's satisfaction with, and trust in, the SAR government?
To put it simple, the polling cycles are all different for measuring people's trust in governments, their satisfaction with government performance, CE rating, and CE support rates. There are considerable difficulties in making synchronized comparison of the different figures. Whether an occasional up or down would become a turning point in a long-term trend or not often requires more analyses of many data points.
For the survey conducted in mid-June, people's trust in the central and local government have dropped by 7 and 9 percentage points respectively, compared to those of mid-April. For the survey conducted in the last ten days of June, people's satisfaction with SAR government's performance would also drop by 2 percentage points, if we compared it with the mid-April figure. CE Donald Tsang's popularity rating would drop by 2.6 marks, and his support rate would drop by 1 percentage point. A blind spot, however, would occur between mid-June and the last ten days of June, because no survey was conducted during that period.
With limited data, we can only guess what happened during in the blind spot based on co-variations of different indicators we have registered in the past. We guess that because CE's rating has dropped significantly between early June and the last ten days of June, the factor which has caused this drop should have also affected people's satisfaction and trust of the SAR government. This might explain why all indicators have dropped when compared to mid-April, although the magnitudes are different. Whether this underlying factor would change the entire trend of public opinion or not is something yet to be studied.
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