HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political groupsBack

Press Release on June 6, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. To facilitate better understanding of our "Top 10" series, we have included the following two pieces of supplementary information: (1) The ratings of political groups being dropped in the final stage of the rating exercise due to their relatively low recognition rates, provided that they still attain 50% recognition rate; (2) Overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over an extended period of time, which is set at past 12 calendar months for surveys on "Top 10 Political Groups". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2005. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
4-10/5/06 (First stage naming survey)	1,019	60.7%	+/- 3%
18-25/5/06 (Second stage rating survey)	1,022	62.0%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between May 4-10. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP) and Frontier were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between May 18-25, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

Date of survey	22-25/8/05	18-23/11/05	9-14/2/06	18/25-5/06	Latest change
Sample base	1,004	1,019	1,012	1,022	--
Overall response rate	63.5%	62.9%	61.0%	62.0%	--
Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.8	+/- 1.6	--
FTU	52.0 [2]	52.7 [2]	52.5[2]	54.2[1]	+1.7
CTU	51.1 [3]	51.7 [3]	51.7[3]	52.6[2]	+0.9
Civic Party	Not yet established			52.2[3]	--
DAB	47.7 [6]	47.5 [7]	49.5[5]	51.1[4]	+1.6
ADPL	50.1 [4]	49.7[4]	49.6[4]	50.5[5]	+0.9
LP	49.7 [5]	48.0 [6]	48.9[6]	50.2[6]	+1.3
DP	47.4 [7]	48.2 [5]	46.9[7]	47.4[7]	+0.5
Frontier	46.2 [8]	45.7 [9]	45.1[8]	46.6[8]	+1.5
HKASPDMC	45.5 [9]	46.5 [8]	43.9[9]	44.8[9]	+0.9
AFA	35.8 [10]	37.5 [10]	35.6[10]	37.6[10]	+2.0
A45 Concern Gp	54.1 [1]	53.8 [1]	53.8[1]	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

Findings obtained in late-May showed that, the best-known political group was Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) which attained 54.2 marks. Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU), the newly founded Civic Party (CP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) and Liberal Party (LP) ranked 2nd to 6th, achieving 52.6, 52.2, 51.1, 50.5 and 50.2 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 7th to 10th ranks fell to, Democratic Party (DP), Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC) and April Fifth Action (AFA), with respective scores of 47.4, 46.6, 44.8 and 37.6 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 52.1 marks. For this latest survey, the Neighbourhood and Workers Service (NWS) and Civil Force (CF) obtained a support rating of 51.6 and 45.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	22-25/8/05	18-23/11/05	9-14/2/06	18-25/5/06	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
FTU	52.0	52.7	52.5	54.2	4	52.9	1
CTU	51.1	51.7	51.7	52.6	4	51.8	2
ADPL	50.1	49.7	49.6	50.5	4	50.0	3
LP	49.7	48.0	48.9	50.2	4	49.2	4
DAB	47.7	47.5	49.5	51.1	4	49.0	5
DP	47.4	48.2	46.9	47.4	4	47.5	6
Frontier	46.2	45.7	45.1	46.6	4	45.9	7
HKASPDMC	45.5	46.5	43.9	44.8	4	45.2	8
AFA	35.8	37.5	35.6	37.6	4	36.6	9
A45 Concern Gp	54.1	53.8	53.8	--	3	53.9	10
Civic Party	--	--	--	52.2	1	52.2	11

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top 9 political groups were all listed for four times. FTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 52.9 marks. CTU and ADPL ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 51.8 and 50.0 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 4th to 9th ranks fell to LP, DAB, DP, Frontier, HKASPDMC, and finally AFA, with respective scores of 49.2, 49.0, 47.5, 45.9, 45.2 and 36.6 marks. Former A45 Concern Group and the newly founded Civic Party were listed three times and one time, ranked 10th and 11th respectively.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The newly founded Civic Party has not fully inherited the popularity strength of the Article 45 Concern Group, it is ranked third in our latest survey. FTU now moves to the top position used to be occupied by the Concern Group, followed by CTU, which has also moved up one position. DAB, on the other hand, climbed one more step to occupy the fourth rank, after swapping positions with ADPL. The rankings of the remaining political groups have remained unchanged. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only include groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they have not been included in our final list."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be June 13, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which is usually based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".

FAQs of Opinion Research

Q: Political parties are not legally defined in Hong Kong, how does HKUPOP define an organization as a political party?
A: It is somewhat difficult, but we could still solve the problem in three ways. First, let them be defined by the organizations themselves; second, let them be defined by the people; third, study political groups from the widest perspective in order to avoid the distinction between political parties and political groups. In our survey of top 10 political groups, we combined the second and third methods, and let people first nominate the political groups they know, and then rank the most well-known groups according to their supporting rates.

Q: If a political party or group is disbanded to set up a new political party or group, should we treat the two groups as the same?
A: No. Whenever a political party or group is re-organized or re-named, it signifies a new start. Apart from the difference in names, the old and new political party or group would also differ in terms of organization structure, membership arrangement and development objectives. Moreover, the old party or group may not be disbanded after all. From the perspective of opinion studies, the new and old organizations can be compared, but cannot be treated as the same entity.