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* 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in late May showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 67.2 marks, and 74% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 49% were satisfied, whereas 11% were dissatisfied.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Both in terms of support rating or support rate, CE Donald Tsang's popularity figures have remained very stable in the month of May. This shows that recent events, like many celebrities' verbal support of Tsang, and his own statement of 'favoritism', did not have much effect on his popularity. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction with the government has begun to fluctuate from February onward, between 50% and 55%. The latest figure registered is 49%, right at the lower bracket. The shape of recent fluctuations looks somewhat like the Hang Seng Index."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be June 1, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest annual survey on June Fourth Incident will be released. Then, on June 6, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, the rating of the top ten political groups will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which is usually based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "World Opinion Research".
World Opinion Research
Some guidelines from WAPOR
Earlier this month, the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) held its 59th Annual Conference in Montreal, Canada. As usual, WAPOR is concerned with the development of opinion polling around the world, especially media practices in reporting opinion polls. HKUPOP today introduces one of WAPOR's concerns as follows:
According to WAPOR's guidelines for opinion polling, when publishing an opinion survey, "whatever information may be given in the published report of the survey, the publisher and/or the research organisation involved must be prepared on request to supply the other information about the survey methods described in the Notes on the application of Rule 25 of the International Code." Rule 25 of the International Code is about methodological and operational details of opinion surveys, it stipulates that "The researcher must provide the client with all appropriate technical details of any research project carried out for that client." In other words, international standards require all government and non-government organizations to maintain a high degree of transparency regarding methodological details whenever they publish opinion surveys, in order to facilitate other peoples and professionals' assessment of the limitations and possible errors of all such surveys.
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