|
The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Selina Chow, Leung Chun-ying, Jasper Tsang, David Li, Cheng Yiu-tong, Ronald Arculli, Bernard Chan, Anthony Cheung, Henry Fan and Leong Che-hung were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early-May, respondents were asked to rate each councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
1-6/4/05 |
4-6/7/05 |
3-6/10/05 |
3-7/2/06 |
4-10/5/06 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,024 |
1,020 |
1,010 |
1,015 |
1,019 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
63.1% |
61.9% |
64.2% |
59.5% |
60.7% |
-- |
Sampling error of rating
(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 1.6 |
+/- 1.6 |
+/- 1.6 |
+/- 1.6 |
+/- 1.4 |
-- |
| Ronald Arculli |
Not yet a member |
** |
59.3 [1] |
-- |
| Selina Chow |
58.9 |
58.5 |
59.6 |
57.8[1] |
56.7 [2] |
-1.1 |
| David Li |
Not yet a member |
54.7[2] |
54.9 [3] |
+0.2 |
| Leung Chun-ying |
46.3 |
47.8 |
48.7 |
47.5[5] |
49.7 [4] |
+2.2 |
| Jasper Tsang |
46.3 |
48.8 |
49.9 |
47.6[4] |
48.3 [5] |
+0.7 |
| Cheng Yiu-tong |
47.2 |
49.8 |
51.0 |
51.8[3] |
** |
-- |
|
|
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings, applicable only to surveys starting from 2006.
The latest survey conducted in early-May showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 59.3 marks. Selina Chow followed behind with 56.7 marks. David Li occupied the 3rd rank, with 54.9 marks correspondingly. Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang ranked 4th to 5th, scoring 49.7 and 48.3 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 53.8 marks. For this latest survey, Cheng Yiu-tong obtained support ratings of 50.8 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate.
|
|
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Probably because people are still unfamiliar with the new Executive Councillors after they came into office last October, there are some significant changes in our 'top 5' list compared to that three months ago. Ronald Arculli who was not there last time now tops the list, having displaced Selina Chow to the second position and David Li to the third. Cheung Yiu-tong was third last time, this time he couldn't make it to the list due to his relatively low recognition rate. Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang ranked 4th and 5th last time, they have now swapped positions, and their ratings remain low. Because Arculli has entered the list with a high score, the average rating of the 'Top 5' has increased from 51.9 to 53.8 marks, bolstering the popularity of non-official Executive Councillors on the whole. It should, however, be noted that our 'Top 5' list includes only those who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 10 non-official members may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear in our 'Top 5' list by design."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be May 30, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting 2006, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research", and the questions have stemmed from a recent enquiry received by POP.
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Note: A citizen emailed us a number of times in April and May, to say that he questioned the results of a survey conducted by Transport Department on the installation of TV in franchised buses, he would like HKUPOP to comment on the survey. Among his many comments, he wrote: "…TD [Transport Department] claimed that an independent consultancy firm has been appointed regularly to conduct a survey on passengers' response of the captioned subject and a conclusion is drawn that more than 80% of passengers like watching the bus TV. As such, TD agreed that bus companies could only set up quiet zone on the lower deck while leaving the upper deck open-sound. According to my observation during these few years while traveling on buses, there wasn't any case showing more than 80% of passengers watching the bus TV during their journey (instead, only a minority was watching). I began to doubt the reliability and accuracy of the survey result…" Based on these comments, we have generated the following FAQs.
Q: Does HKUPOP provide comments on surveys conducted by other organizations?
A: We try not to, in order to avoid any conflict of interest, unless there is a desperate necessity for us to do so. However, we do not avoid taking the responsibility of educating the general public whenever needed. This occurs when we can discuss research methodology in detail, rather than giving short comments to individual studies. We hope this task could be taken up by independent academics or professionals who do not have any conflict of interest. As a long term solution, we have been advocating for a long time for the adoption of international standards in the conduct and release of public opinion surveys, and the release of the full research report whenever a survey is published and whenever the government cited a study it conducted or commissioned.
Q: Does POP initiate surveys upon the suggestion of members of the general public?
A: It is not our general practice, but we will look into this possibility in future. However, we do accept commissioned survey, but even then, we require research autonomy and shared copyrights, meaning that all fieldwork operations and data analyses would be conducted independently by the POP Team without interference from any outside party.
|
