HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal OfficialsBack

Press Release on May 16, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2005 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
4-10/5/06	1,019	60.7%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sampling errors and sample size for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error for percentages*（maximum value）	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error for percentages*（maximum value）
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

* Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-8/3	13-17/3	3-7/4	18-21/4	4-10/5	Latest change
Sample base	1,026	1,010	1,029	1,015	1,019	--
Overall response rate	60.4%	59.4%	59.5%	59.5%	60.7%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.2	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	67.5	67.9	68.3	68.9	67.1	-1.8
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	72%	72%	72%	73%	73%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	10%	9%	9%	9%	12%	+3%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-7/2	22/2	2-8/3	3-7/4	4-10/5	Latest change*
Sample base	1015	540-632#	1,026	1,029	1,019	--
Overall response rate	59.5%	68.3%	60.4%	59.5%	60.7%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)**	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)**	+/-3%	+/-4%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Ratings of CS Rafael Hui	56.0	--	57.5	58.4	56.8	-1.6
Vote of confidence in Rafael Hui	35%	--	37%	36%	35%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Rafael Hui	11%	--	11%	10%	11%	+1%
Ratings of FS Henry Tang	63.0	63.0	63.6	65.0	63.3	-1.7
Vote of confidence in Henry Tang	65%	61%	66%	67%	64%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Henry Tang	8%	6%	9%	7%	10%	+3%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	65.0	--	66.3	66.8	65.5	-1.3
Vote of confidence in Y.L.Wong	59%	--	62%	65%	65%	--
Vote of no confidence in Y.L.Wong	3%	--	2%	2%	4%	+2%

* The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# These questions only used sub-samples of the Budget instant poll, and the sub-sample size for each question varied.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-6/1		2-8/3		4-10/5		Latest change**
Sample base	1,018*		1,026*		1,019*		--
Overall response rate	63.5%		60.4%		60.7%		--
Sample base for each question/rating	Base	Rating	Base	Rating	Base	Rating	--
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	536	66.4	746	65.3	509	63.3	-2.0
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	527	58.8	699	61.2	523	58.4	-2.8
Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	Survey not started yet		737	59.0	526	58.2	-0.8
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow	505	57.1	752	57.2	553	55.5	-1.7
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	527	57.2	611	57.2	580	55.2	-2.0
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong^	505	54.7	618	53.8	594	53.6	-0.2
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	527	52.7	625	53.2	587	52.6	-0.6
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	505	53.6	677	52.1	461	51.2	-0.9
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	536	50.9	648	52.0	534	49.9	-2.1
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	491	51.8	480	50.9	478	48.7	-2.2
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	527	46.9	562	48.3	533	47.8	-0.5
Ex-Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	491	60.1	Left

* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of hypothetical support ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
^ Joseph Wong changed his position from Secretary for the Civil Service to Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology on January 24, 2006.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 67.1 marks, and 73% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 56.8, 63.3 and 65.5 marks, and 35%, 64% and 65% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 63.3 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee followed behind in the 2nd and 3rd ranks, scoring 58.4 and 58.2 marks respectively. The 4th to 7th ranks went to Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, scoring 55.5, 55.2, 53.6 and 52.6 marks respectively. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung occupied the 8th to 10th ranks, scoring 51.2, 49.9 and 48.7 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place, with a popularity rating of 47.8 marks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The support rate of CE Donald Tsang continues to stay at 73%, but his support rating has dropped 1.8 marks, probably due to the slight increase in the proportion of people who oppose him. The situation is more or less the same with the three Secretaries of Departments. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to their support ratings registered two months ago, their relative rankings have remained exactly the same, although all their absolute ratings have fallen. Ambrose Lee continues to score the highest while Stephen Lam remains at the bottom."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be May 23, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the popularity ratings of top five members of Executive Council will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from the last regular press release, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research", and the questions have stemmed from some enquiries recently received by POP.

Some FAQs of Opinion Research

Note: A citizen called our HKUPOP Office a number of times in April and May, to say that he did not agree with the findings that CE Donald Tsang enjoyed high popularity. Among his many comments, he asked - "In measuring the CE's popularity, is your telephone sample biased against people living in certain districts? Why don't you interview professionals and university professors, who are more critical than the general public?" Based on these comments, we have generated the following FAQs.

Q: How can systematic biases be eliminated in sample surveys?
A: We may never be able to eliminate all biases, but we can minimize them. For HKUPOP telephone surveys, we randomly sample telephone numbers from household telephone directories, and then select one respondent from a target household using the "next birthday rule". Theoretically, our sampling frame covers everyone in Hong Kong. The best way to examine the representativeness of a sample is to compare its demographic profile with that of the target population, usually in terms of gender, age, education attainment, housing type, occupation, geographical distribution and so on. Such profiles are always given in HKUPOP survey reports and releases.

Q: Why not interview experts and professionals instead of members of the general public?
A: We sometimes do. However, expert and public opinions belong to different levels and they cannot replace each other. In democratic societies where important issues are ultimately decided by the popular vote, it is important to study from time to time what the public wants, in spite of what the experts say.