HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

Press Release on May 9, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors. To facilitate better understanding of our "Top 10" series, since last year we have included the following two pieces of supplementary information in our releases: (1) The ratings of Legislative Councillors dropped in the final stage of the rating exercise due to their relatively low recognition rates, provided that they still attain 50% recognition rate; (2) Overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over an extended period of time, which is set at past 12 calendar months for surveys on "Top 10 Legislative Councillors". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2005 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
3-7/4/06 (First stage naming survey)	1,029	59.5%	+/- 3%
18-21/4/06 (Second stage rating survey)	1,015	59.5%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Martin Lee, Audrey Eu, Leung Kwok-hung, Selina Chow and Emily Lau were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late-April, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	9-12/5/05	5-9/8/05	9-13/11/05	16-20/1/06	18-21/4/06	Latest change
Sample base	1,004	1,001	1,016	1,011	1,015	--
Overall response rate	62.6%	61.0%	64.1%	61.0%	59.5%	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.8	+/-1.8	+/-1.8	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	--
Rita Fan	64.1 [1]	63.7 [1]	65.1 [1]	62.0 [1]	65.4 [1]	+3.4
Audrey Eu	63.5 [2]	**	61.8 [2]	**	57.6 [2]	--
Selina Chow	60.3 [3]	59.5 [2]	57.5 [3]	54.6 [2]	56.4 [3]	+1.8
James Tien	53.4 [5]	54.9 [3]	55.5 [4]	51.3 [4]	55.6 [4]	+4.3
Lee Cheuk-yan	55.3 [4]	53.6 [4]	54.5 [5]	52.3 [3]	54.3 [5]	+2.0
Jasper Tsang	48.1 [8]	47.7 [8]	49.7 [7]	48.9 [5]	50.9 [6]	+2.0
Emily Lau	50.5 [7]	49.1 [6]	48.9 [8]	43.3[9]	48.2 [7]	+4.9
Martin Lee	53.0 [6]	48.6 [7]	51.0 [6]	46.6 [6]	48.2 [8]	+1.6
Albert Cheng	45.9 [9]	43.0 [9]	46.4 [9]	44.1[8]	44.5 [9]	+0.4
Leung Kwok-hung	35.7 [10]	32.1 [10]	35.1 [10]	30.8[10]	33.4 [10]	+2.6
Lee Wing-tat	**	52.0 [5]	**	45.9[7]	**	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The latest survey conducted in late April showed that Rita Fan was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 65.4 marks. Audrey Eu followed behind with 57.6 marks. Selina Chow, James Tien and Lee Cheuk-yan occupied the 3rd to 5th ranks, with 56.4, 55.6 and 54.3 marks correspondingly. Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau, Martin Lee and Albert Cheng ranked 6th to 9th, scoring 50.9, 48.2, 48.2 and 44.5 marks respectively. The 10th rank fell to Leung Kwok-hung who scored 33.4 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 57.8 marks, while that for the top 10 was 51.4 marks. For this latest survey, Lee Wing-tat and Ma Lik obtained support ratings of 51.5 and 51.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	5-9/8/05	9-13/11/05	16-20/1/06	18-21/4/06	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Rita Fan	63.7	65.1	62.0	63.7	4	64.1	1
Selina Chow	59.5	57.5	54.6	58.0	4	57.0	2
James Tien	54.9	55.5	51.3	53.8	4	54.3	3
Lee Cheuk-yan	53.6	54.5	52.3	53.9	4	53.7	4
Jasper Tsang	47.7	49.7	48.9	48.6	4	49.3	5
Martin Lee	48.6	51.0	46.6	49.8	4	48.6	6
Emily Lau	49.1	48.9	43.3	48.0	4	47.4	7
Albert Cheng	43.0	46.4	44.1	44.8	4	44.5	8
Leung Kwok-hung	32.1	35.1	30.8	33.4	4	32.8	9
Audrey Eu	--	61.8	--	62.7	2	59.7	10
Lee Wing-tat	52.0	--	45.9	48.9	2	48.9	11

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that nine Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Rita Fan in the top rank achieving an average rating of 64.1 marks, Selina Chow ranking 2nd attaining 57.0 marks, James Tien and Lee Cheuk-yan who ranked 3rd and 4th with respective scores of 54.3 and 53.7 marks, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Emily Lau at the 5th to 7th ranks, attaining 49.3, 48.6 and 47.4 marks correspondingly, Albert Cheng and Leung Kwok-hung ranking 8th and 9th with 44.5 and 32.8 marks respectively. Audrey Eu and Lee Wing-tat were both listed for two times, they occupied the 10th and 11th ranks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of the best known Legco members have all increased, back to the level registered before the dispute over constitutional development. Emily Lau registered the biggest increase, followed by James Tien and Rita Fan. The relative rankings of these Legco members, however, have not changed much, mostly within two positions up or down. Rita Fan continues to top the list, while Audrey Eu and Lee Wing-tat continue to compete for the recognition threshold. Because Eu has re-entered the list this time, the relative rankings of various Legco members are almost the same as those registered last November. It should be noted that this list of 'Top 10 Legislative Councillors' includes only those who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'Top 10' list by design."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be May 11, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures of people's appraisal of local news media will be released. Then, on May 16, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting 2006, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research", and the questions have stemmed from a recent comment received by POP.

Some FAQs of Opinion Research

Note: HKUPOP received the following comment on May 8, 2006 - "We do not know whom you asked in your surveys. If all of them are members of the Democratic Party, they would give zero mark to the government. If all of them are government supporters, they would give 100 marks to Donald Tsang. Opinion polls are just lousy. Why don't you ask people on the street about Legco members? [The next and last sentence of the original comment could not be translated, because it was nonsensical.]" While some personal comments seem irrelevant, we have teased out the technical questions and generated the following FAQs.

Q: How can opinion polls avoid asking supporters or opponents of certain political groups?

A: Opinion polls do not need to avoid asking supporters or opponents of political groups. The important point is to make sure that the proportions of respondents in favour of certain opinions are the same as those in the target population. We therefore need to use scientific random sampling method. POP normally randomly samples telephone numbers from telephone directories, and then samples one respondent from the target household for interview. This method is often used in contemporary social surveys, and is much better than street interviews.

Q: How can people know the contact information of each survey?

A: POP's practice is to give detailed contact information of every survey whenever the survey is released, including the definition of target population and its research design, which includes the sampling method, the demographic background of the respondents, the questionnaire in full, and other contact information. According to international standards, providing such information is the responsibility of any organization when releasing or reporting the survey results.