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* 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. For questions related to popularity of CE, no sample was collected on 21 February.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in late April showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 68.9 marks, and 73% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 55% were satisfied, whereas 9% were dissatisfied.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The support rating of CE Donald Tsang continues to rise very slowly, while his support rate stays very stably at 73%. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction with the SARG's overall performance has also slightly increased, back to the level registered after the government changed its West Kowloon development plan and the FS delivered his Budget Speech. The fact that many celebrities have come out to speak in favour of Tsang does not seem to have much effect on Tsang's popularity. From a positive perspective, if people can distant themselves from sensational stories of pro-somebody versus anti-somebody campaigns, and concentrate on appraising political leaders with a clear mind, this could itself be an achievement."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be May 2, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting 2006, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: CE's support rate in the latest survey is 73%, objection rate 9%, sampling error being +/-3%, does this mean that his "real" support rate is 70% to 76%, and his "real" objection rate is 6% to 12%?
A: This is oversimplification. Using 95% as the confidence level, sampling errors of +/-3 percentage points only occur when certain figures reach about 50%. For figures near the two extremes, sampling errors are smaller. For a sample of 1,015 subjects, the sampling error for a figure at 73% is +/-2.8 percentage points, while the sampling error for a figure at 9% is +/-1.8 percentage points. The expression "margin of error" commonly used by the Western media is jus a simplified concept, it needs to be adjusted when applied to relatively large or small percentages.
Q: Can you further elaborate the relationship among sample size, percentages and sampling errors?
A: Please refer to the article "The Basics of Rolling Polls" carried in "POP Column" of the
"HKU POP SITE". The article was published on September 11, 2004.
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