Press Release on April 11, 2006
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| Latest Figures | Commentary
| News about POP | Some FAQs of Opinion Research |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive
/ Popularity of Principal Officials)
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| Latest Figures |
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE"
(http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2005 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
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| Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages* |
| 3-7/4/06 |
1,029 |
59.5% |
+/- 3% |
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
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As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sampling errors and sample size for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
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Sample
size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling
error for percentages*（maximum value） |
Sample
size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling
error for percentages*（maximum value） |
| 1,300 |
+/-
2.8 % |
1,350 |
+/-
2.7 % |
| 1,200 |
+/-
2.9 % |
1,250 |
+/-
2.8 % |
| 1,100 |
+/-
3.0 % |
1,150 |
+/-
3.0 % |
| 1,000 |
+/-
3.2 % |
1,050 |
+/-
3.1 % |
| 900 |
+/-
3.3 % |
950 |
+/-
3.2 % |
| 800 |
+/-
3.5 % |
850 |
+/-
3.4 % |
| 700 |
+/-
3.8 % |
750 |
+/-
3.7 % |
| 600 |
+/-
4.1 % |
650 |
+/-
3.9 % |
| 500 |
+/-
4.5 % |
550 |
+/-
4.3 % |
| 400 |
+/-
5.0 % |
450 |
+/-
4.7 % |
* Based on 95% confidence interval.
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Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
17-21/2 |
22/2 |
2-8/3 |
13-17/3 |
3-7/4 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
602# |
567-677# |
1,026 |
1,010 |
1,029 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
60.9% |
68.3% |
60.4% |
59.4% |
59.5% |
-- |
| Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-1.4 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.0 |
+/-1.0 |
+/-1.0 |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-4% |
+/-4% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Rating of CE Donald Tsang |
65.9 |
66.3 |
67.5 |
67.9 |
68.3 |
+0.4 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
65% |
70% |
72% |
72% |
72% |
-- |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
10% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
-- |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. For questions related to popularity of CE, no sample was collected on 21 February.
Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
3-6/1 |
3-7/2 |
22/2 |
2-8/3 |
3-7/4 |
Latest change* |
| Sample base |
1,018 |
1015 |
540-632# |
1,026 |
1,029 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
63.5% |
59.5% |
68.3% |
60.4% |
59.5% |
-- |
| Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)** |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)** |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-4% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Ratings of CS Rafael Hui |
58.2 |
56.0 |
-- |
57.5 |
58.4 |
+0.9 |
| Vote of confidence in Rafael Hui |
39% |
35% |
-- |
37% |
36% |
-1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Rafael Hui |
10% |
11% |
-- |
11% |
10% |
-1% |
| Ratings of FS Henry Tang |
63.2 |
63.0 |
63.0 |
63.6 |
65.0 |
+1.4 |
| Vote of confidence in Henry Tang |
63% |
65% |
61% |
66% |
67% |
+1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Henry Tang |
9% |
8% |
6% |
9% |
7% |
-2% |
| Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong |
65.3 |
65.0 |
-- |
66.3 |
66.8 |
+0.5 |
| Vote of confidence in Y.L.Wong |
60% |
59% |
-- |
62% |
65% |
+3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Y.L.Wong |
1% |
3% |
-- |
2% |
2% |
-- |
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* The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# These questions only used sub-samples of the Budget instant poll, and the sub-sample size for each question varied.
As for the popularity indicators based on people's hypothetical reappointment or dismissal votes, the approval and disapproval rates of the Principal Officials are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
30/11-5/12/05 |
3-7/2/06 |
3-7/4/06 |
Latest Change(percentage)* |
| Total sample size |
1,017 |
1,015 ^ |
1,029 ^ |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
63.5% |
59.5% |
59.5% |
-- |
| Sample base for each question/percentage of answer |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee |
1,017 |
67% |
488 |
70% |
608 |
69% |
-1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee |
1,017 |
3% |
488 |
6% |
608 |
4% |
-2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip |
1,017 |
53% |
600 |
58% |
599 |
53% |
-5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip |
1,017 |
6% |
600 |
8% |
599 |
5% |
-3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow |
1,017 |
47% |
504 |
45% |
636 |
49% |
+4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow |
1,017 |
16% |
504 |
17% |
636 |
17% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao |
1,017 |
47% |
574 |
49% |
641 |
46% |
-3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao |
1,017 |
20% |
574 |
22% |
641 |
23% |
+1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue |
Survey notstarted yet |
545 |
39% |
692 |
45% |
+6% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue |
545 |
3% |
692 |
4% |
+1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma |
1,017 |
34% |
605 |
34% |
694 |
36% |
+2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma |
1,017 |
22% |
605 |
25% |
694 |
20% |
-5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li |
1,017 |
41% |
624 |
30% |
687 |
36% |
+6% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li |
1,017 |
27% |
624 |
40% |
687 |
32% |
-8% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho |
1,017 |
31% |
523 |
29% |
612 |
32% |
+3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho |
1,017 |
26% |
523 |
33% |
612 |
26% |
-7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam |
1,017 |
25% |
543 |
24% |
682 |
31% |
+7% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam |
1,017 |
30% |
543 |
33% |
682 |
27% |
-6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen |
1,017 |
32% |
545 |
32% |
658 |
29% |
-3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen |
1,017 |
32% |
545 |
33% |
658 |
33% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong^^ |
1,017 |
31% |
539 |
22% |
632 |
27% |
+5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong^^ |
1,017 |
20% |
539 |
23% |
632 |
16% |
-7% |
| Vote of confidence in ex-Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang |
1,017 |
31% |
Left |
| Vote of no confidence in ex-Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang |
1,017 |
7% |
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* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
^ Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
^^ Joseph Wong changed his position from Secretary for the Civil Service to Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology on January 24, 2006.
Results of our latest survey revealed that the rating of CE Donald Tsang was 68.3 marks. Meanwhile, 72% of the respondents supported Tsang as the Chief Executive. As for Secretaries of Departments, the support ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 58.4, 65.0 and 66.8 marks, and 36%, 67% and 65% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 69%. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan followed behind in the 2nd rank who attained 53%. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, obtaining supporting rates of 49%, 46% and 45% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 6th to 9th places, achieving 36%, 36%, 32% and 31%. Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping ranked the 10th and 11th, as they gained 29% and 27% vote of confidence from the public respectively. In other words, only Ambrose Lee and Stephen Ip scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The support rates of the CE and the three Secretaries of Departments have not changed much over the month past. CE Donald Tsang's support rate continues to stay very stable at 72%. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to their support rates registered two months ago, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li, Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong all registered significant increases. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip registered a significant drop, while all other figures fluctuated within sampling errors."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be April 18, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures of people's appraisal of the local news media will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting 2006, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: Why is POP not releasing support ratings and support rates of Directors of Bureaux at the same time?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of March 14, 2006.
Q: What is the meaning of "weighting" mentioned in the press release?
A: Due to various reasons, the characteristics of a survey sample may differ from those of the target population. For example, a survey may have captured 1,029 Hong Kong residents, 43.2% of which are males. However, government statistics may show that 47.0% of Hong Kong adults are males. In order to increase the representativeness of the sample, the research organization may choose to scale up the importance of each male subject by 0.088 time, and compress the importance of each female subject by the same proportion, in order to match the sex ratio of the target population. This is called "statistical weighting". HKUPOP's general practice is to weight all raw data according to the latest figures obtained from the government regarding gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population, and to report both the raw and weighted demographic profiles of the respondents in all releases.
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|
| Latest Figures | Commentary
| News about POP | Some FAQs of Opinion Research |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive
/ Popularity of Principal Officials)
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|
