HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues Back


Press Release on March 17, 2006
 

| Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |

 
Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2005 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

 
  Date of survey  Overall sample size  Response rate  Sampling error of percentages* 
  2-8/3/06 1,026  60.4%  +/-3%
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues are summarized as follows:

  Date of survey  1-3/3/05   6-8/6/05   1-7/9/05   9-14/12/05   2-8/3/06   Latest change 
  Sample base  1,019   1,029   1,007   1,017   1,026   -- 
  Overall response rate  63.1%   66.0%   62.0%   67.7%   60.4%   -- 
  Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*  +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   -- 
  Taiwan independence: Opposition rate  78%   77%   81%   78%   83%   +5% 
  Taiwan independence: Support rate  12%   9%   10%   9%   11%   +2% 
  Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate  58%   53%   58%   53%   60%   +7% 
  Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate  26%   24%   26%   24%   28%   +4% 
  Confidence in cross-strait reunification  53%   50%   68%   49%   60%   +11% 
  No-confidence in cross-strait reunification  36%   34%   22%   36%   32%   -4% 
  Believed 「one country, two systems」 was applicable to Taiwan  49%   42%   50%   46%   53%   +7% 
  Believed 「one country, two systems」 was not applicable to Taiwan  37%   37%   35%   34%   33%   -1% 

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

Results obtained in early March revealed that, 83% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 11% showed support. Meanwhile, 60% opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 28% supported it. Moreover, 60% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 32% expressed no confidence. As for the applicability of 「one country, two systems」 to Taiwan, 53% gave a positive view while 33% gave a negative view.


Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「That 83% of Hong Kong people opposed to the independence of Taiwan, and 60% opposed to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, are both record high figures since these questions started in mid-1993. The 53% who believed that "one country, two systems" could be applied to Taiwan is also record high since this question started in late 1996. Hong Kong people's strong feelings towards the independence of Taiwan is both a function of their increasing agreement with the Central Government's viewpoint after the handover, as well as an indicator of their frustration at President Chen Shui-bian's recent speeches and actions, especially his recent move to cease the function of the "National Unification Council" and the application of its guidelines.」

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be March 21, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the results of the Budget follow-up survey will be released. Then on March 23, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2 pm, we will release the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and HKSAR Government.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting this year, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is 「About HKUPOP」.

About HKUPOP

Why should HKUPOP conduct regular surveys on Taiwan issues?

Two years after HKUPOP was established, in 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. They include: Taiwan independence, Taiwan joining the United Nations, Hong Kong people's trust of the Taiwan government, and people's confidence in cross-strait reunification. By 1996, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, whether 「one country, two systems」 should be equally applicable to Taiwan or not became a talking point for peoples across the Strait. HKUPOP therefore added it to the pool of tracking questions. Put it simple, the reason why HKUPOP conducted these surveys is just because they reflect people's concern, and nothing to do with any overt or covert political stands. Some online readers criticized HKUPOP for intervening Taiwan's internal politics by conducting these surveys. They have completely misunderstood us.

What are the other national issues studied by HKUPOP?

Counting only regular tracking surveys other than those on Taiwan issues, HKUPOP has been monitoring Hong Kong people's strength of ethnic identity, their trust in the Central Government, their confidence in the future of China and 「one country, two systems」, their views on June 4 and Hong Kong's handover, their ratings of political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, their receptiveness of Tibet independence in parallel to their receptiveness of Taiwan independence, as well as new topics covered in regular surveys conducted in Macau in recent years.

 

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