HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the Principal OfficialsBack

Press Release on March 14, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2005 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
2-8/3/06	1,026	60.4%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16-20/1	3-7/2	17-21/2	22/2	2-8/3	Latest change
Sample base	1,011	1,015	602#	567-677#	1,026	--
Overall response rate	61.0%	59.5%	60.9%	68.3%	60.4%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.0	+/-1.2	+/-1.4	+/-1.2	+/-1.0	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-4%	+/-4%	+/-3%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	67.0	67.4	65.9	66.3	67.5	+1.2
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	67%	68%	65%	70%	72%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	12%	11%	10%	11%	10%	-1%

* 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. For questions related to popularity of CE, no sample was collected on 21 February.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	30/11-5/12/05	3-6/1/06	3-7/2/06	22/2/06	2-8/3/06	Latest change*
Sample base	1,017	1,018	1015	540-632#	1,026	--
Overall response rate	62.5%	63.5%	59.5%	68.3%	60.4%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)**	+/-1.6	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	--
Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)**	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-4%	+/-3%	--
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	65.3	65.3	65.0	--	66.3	+1.3
Vote of confidence in Y.L.Wong	58%	60%	59%	--	62%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Y.L.Wong	3%	1%	3%	--	2%	-1%
Ratings of FS Henry Tang	61.7	63.2	63.0	63.0	63.6	+0.6
Vote of confidence in Henry Tang	61%	63%	65%	61%	66%	+5%
Vote of no confidence in Henry Tang	9%	9%	8%	6%	9%	+3%
Ratings of CS Rafael Hui	57.9	58.2	56.0	--	57.5	+1.5
Vote of confidence in Rafael Hui	39%	39%	35%	--	37%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Rafael Hui	8%	10%	11%	--	11%	--

* The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# These questions only used sub-samples of the Budget instant poll, and the sub-sample size for each question varied.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-6/10/05	1-7/11/05	30/11-5/12/05	3-6/1/06	2-8/3/06	Latest change
Sample base	1,010	1,003	1,017	491-536*	480-752*	--
Overall response rate	64.2%	64.6%	62.5%	63.5%	60.4%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)**	+/-1.6	+/-1.4	+/-1.6	+/-2.2	+/-2.0	--
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	64.0	62.2	62.3	66.4	65.3	-1.1
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	60.6	59.2	58.9	58.8	61.2	+2.4
Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	Survey not started yet				59.0	--
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow	56.5	56.0	55.3	57.1	57.2	+0.1
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	59.3	58.6	56.1	57.2	57.2	--
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong^	52.9	53.1	51.9	54.7	53.8	-0.9
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	53.1	53.5	51.5	52.7	53.2	+0.5
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	54.2	54.1	53.6	53.6	52.1	-1.5
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	51.0	51.3	50.5	50.9	52.0	+1.1
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	51.4	51.3	49.6	51.8	50.9	-0.9
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	48.2	49.1	46.8	46.9	48.3	+1.4

* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
^ The position of Joseph Wong was changed from Secretary for the Civil Service to Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology on 24 January 2006.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 67.5 marks, and 72% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of SJ Wong Yan-lung, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and CS Rafael Hui Si-yan were 66.3, 63.6 and 57.5 marks, and 62%, 66% and 37% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 65.3 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan followed behind in the 2nd rank, scoring 61.2 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks go to Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung scoring 59.0, 57.2 and 57.2 marks respectively. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung occupied the 6th to 10th ranks, scoring 53.8, 53.2, 52.1, 52.0 and 50.9 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place, with popularity ratings of 48.3 marks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「CE Donald Tsang's support rating has slightly increased, while his support rate of 72% is record high since last November. This may result from the recent open support of the Central Government. For the Principal Officials, the ratings for all three Secretaries of Departments have increased. Wong Yan-lung continues to score the highest, while Rafael Hui records the biggest increase but continues to lag behind Wong Yan-lung and Henry Tang. As for the Directors of Bureaux, when compared with ratings recorded two months ago, except for Stephen Ip, all ratings fluctuate within sampling errors. Ambrose Lee continues to score the highest while Stephen Lam remains at the bottom with less than 50 marks.」

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be March 17, 2006, Friday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the people's opinions towards Taiwan issues will be released. Then on March 21, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, we will release the results of the Budget follow-up survey.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from the last regular press release, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is 「FAQs of Opinion Research」.

Some FAQs of Opinion Research

Q: What is the difference between 「support ratings」 and 「support rates」?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of January 10, 2006.

Q: Why is POP not releasing support ratings and support rates of Directors of Bureau at the same time?
A: Since the accountability system started, POP has closely monitored the popularity of the Principal Officials using regular surveys. At first, we mainly used rating questions, supplemented by support rate questions. Other indicators were also used, mainly for additional analysis. However, parallel to the development of democracy on the whole and people's sense of voting in particular, starting from 2006, we have adjusted the importance of support rating and support rate questions to the ratio of 1:1. CE support ratings and support rates are now conducted and released twice a month, those of Secretaries of Departments once a month, and those of Directors of Bureaux separately in odd and even months respectively.