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| Date of survey |
Sample base |
Overall response rate |
Sampling error of percentages* |
| 22/2/06 |
1,026 |
68.3% |
+/-3% |
| 17-21/2/06 |
1,017 |
60.9% |
+/-3% |
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample errors.
The survey findings are shown as follows:
| Date of survey |
3-6/1 |
16-20/1 |
3-7/2 |
17-21/2# |
Latest change |
22/2 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,018 |
1,011 |
1,015 |
602-1,017# |
-- |
567-677# |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
63.5% |
61.0% |
59.5% |
60.9% |
-- |
68.3% |
-- |
| Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-1.0 |
+/-1.0 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.4 |
-- |
+/-1.2 |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-4% |
-- |
+/-4% |
-- |
| Rating of CE Donald Tsang |
67.5 |
67.0 |
67.4 |
65.9 |
-1.5 |
66.3 |
+0.4 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
69% |
67% |
68% |
65% |
-3% |
70% |
+5% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
10% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
-1% |
11% |
+1% |
| Satisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction** |
-- |
-- |
-- |
51%^ |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction** |
-- |
-- |
-- |
8%^ |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance** |
-- |
50% |
-- |
50% |
-- |
55% |
+5% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance** |
-- |
11% |
-- |
15% |
+4 |
10% |
-5% |
*"95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for this item is different from the rest. The last survey was conducted in mid October last year and the positive and negative figures were 52% and 4% back then.
# These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. For questions related to popularity of CE and HKSAR, the first survey only involved the sub-sample collected from 17-20 February.
Results of our survey conducted before the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech revealed that the rating of CE Donald Tsang was 65.9 marks. Meanwhile, 65% of the respondents supported Tsang as the Chief Executive, whereas 10% did not. Moreover, 51% were satisfied with his policy direction, whereas 8% were dissatisfied. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, 50% were satisfied, whereas 15% were dissatisfied. After the Budget Speech was delivered, the latest rating of CE Donald Tsang was 66.3 marks. Meanwhile, 70% of the respondents supported Tsang as the Chief Executive, whereas 11% did not. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 55% were satisfied, whereas 10% were dissatisfied.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed,"Despite some fluctuations in CE Donald Tsang's popularity ratings recently, the support rate of the CE and people's satisfaction rate with the SAR government have both recovered to the level registered before the row on constitutional reform. Because the latest figures were collected shortly after the government changed its West Kowloon development plan and also after the FS delivered his Budget Speech, just one day apart, it is very difficult to distinguish the separate effects of the two events. Nevertheless, according to the result of our Budget instant poll released last week, FS's Budget Speech did not seem to have any impact on his popularity figures. We can therefore deduce that the re-planning of West Kowloon might have a more positive effect on CE and SARG's popularity than the Budget."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be March 7, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, the latest figures on subjective social and legal indicators will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting this year, we have included a small educational section in our regular press release for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is"About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
The background the POP question on"policy directions"
The exact question used in mapping people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction is as follows:
"On the whole, how satisfied are you with Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's policy direction?"
Available answers include"very satisfied","quite satisfied","half-half","not quite satisfied","very dissatisfied" and"don't know / hard to say". Obviously, the number of"refusals" is also registered.
HKUPOP was established in 1991, we began to record people's satisfaction of Governor Chris Patten's policy address ever since he gave his first one in October 1992. The question used then was:"On the whole, how satisfied are you with XXX's policy address?" We used this question up to September 2002, shortly before Tung Chee-hwa delivered his first policy address of his second session. Meanwhile, POP continued to develop other indicators of policy satisfaction, including"people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction" since July 1997,"hypothetical voting on XXX as the CE" and"people's appraisal of CE's job performance", both since February 2002. Our frequent CE rating exercise continues, and Donald Tsang's becoming the CE did not change our operation. Our effort to search and test for the best method to study people's satisfaction of public policies continues up to this date.
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