|
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
Findings obtained in mid-February showed that, the best-known political group was Article 45 Concern Group (A45 Concern Gp) which attained 53.8 marks. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) and Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) ranked 2nd to 5th, achieving 52.5, 51.7, 49.6 and 49.5 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 6th to 10th ranks fell to Liberal Party (LP), Democratic Party (DP), Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC) and April Fifth Action (AFA), with respective scores of 48.9, 46.9, 45.1, 43.9 and 35.6 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 51.4 marks. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
21-24/5/05 |
22-25/8/05 |
18-23/11/05 |
9-14/2/06 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating* |
Overall ranking** |
| A45 Concern Gp |
54.0 |
54.1 |
53.8 |
53.8 |
4 |
53.9 |
1 |
| FTU |
52.2 |
52.0 |
52.7 |
52.5 |
4 |
52.4 |
2 |
| CTU |
52.5 |
51.1 |
51.7 |
51.7 |
4 |
51.8 |
3 |
| ADPL |
47.4 |
50.1 |
49.7 |
49.6 |
4 |
49.2 |
4 |
| LP |
48.3 |
49.7 |
48.0 |
48.9 |
4 |
48.7 |
5 |
| DP |
49.0 |
47.4 |
48.2 |
46.9 |
4 |
47.9 |
6 |
| DAB |
46.5 |
47.7 |
47.5 |
49.5 |
4 |
47.8 |
7 |
| HKASPDMC |
46.4 |
45.5 |
46.5 |
43.9 |
4 |
45.6 |
8 |
| Frontier |
45.2 |
46.2 |
45.7 |
45.1 |
4 |
45.6 |
9 |
| AFA |
36.3 |
35.8 |
37.5 |
35.6 |
4 |
36.3 |
10 |
|
|
* 「Average rating」 is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
** 「Overall rankings」 are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top 10 political groups were all listed for four times. A45 Concern Group was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 53.9 marks. FTU and CTU ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 52.4 and 51.8 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 4th to 10th ranks fell to ADPL, LP, DP, DAB, HKASPDMC, Frontier, and finally AFA, with respective scores of 49.2, 48.7, 47.9, 47.8, 45.6, 45.6 and 36.3 marks.
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Among the most well-known political groups, Article 45 Concern Group continues to top the list, while FTU and CTU keep trailing behind in the second and third places. In our latest ranking, the popularity of DAB has increased both in terms of absolute rating and relative ranking. It is now in the middle-rank of the list. As the A45 Concern Group has decided to turn itself into a political party, it would be interesting to watch how its popularity would change. However, it should be noted that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only include groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they have not been included in our final list. Whether the new party formed by the "Concern Group" can go straight into "Top 10" is something yet to be seen.」
The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between February 3-7. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Article 45 Concern Group (A45 Concern Gp) and Frontier were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between February 9-14, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. For this latest survey, the Neighbourhood and Workers Service (NWS) and Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) obtained a support rating of 51.1 and 47.4 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be February 23, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest findings on people's instant reactions towards the Budget will be released. Then, on February 28, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting this year, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is still "FAQs of Opinion Research".
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: After the A45 Concern Group turns into a political party, can we accumulate the popularity ratings of the new party with the Concern Group?
A: We won't do that. If the news report about A45 Concern Group turning into Civic Party is true, unless the Concern Group still continues to exist in a certain mode, we will take away the Concern Group from our ratings of the top 10 political groups series, and Civic Party will be included in our survey as a brand new political group.
Q: Some obsolete or non-existent political groups have their names appeared in our Stage One naming survey, would this affect the final result?
A: No, because we have already taken away those political groups before the second stage rating survey. Since political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, we will try to be as lenient as possible in the naming stage, and then those groups which fall outside the popular definition will be eliminated in the next stage.
|
