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* The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
As for the popularity indicators based on people's hypothetical reappointment or dismissal votes, the approval and disapproval rates of the Principal Officials are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
1-3/6/05 |
1-4/8/05 |
3-6/10/05 |
30/11-5/12/05 |
3-7/2/06 |
Latest change* |
| Sample base |
1,015 |
1,015 |
1,010 |
1,017 |
488-624^ |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
65.6% |
59.4% |
64.2% |
62.5% |
59.5% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)** |
+/- 3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-5% |
-- |
| Vote of cofidence in
Secretary for Security Ambrose
Lee |
70% |
67% |
73% |
67% |
70% |
-3% |
| Vote of no cofidence in
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee |
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
6% |
+3% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for
Economic Development ande Labour Stephen
Ip |
59% |
56% |
59% |
53% |
58% |
+5% |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for
Economic Development ande Labour Stephen Ip |
5% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
+2% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah
Liao |
56% |
55% |
59% |
47% |
49% |
+2% |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao |
16% |
15% |
14% |
20% |
22% |
+2% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York
Chow |
60% |
40% |
49% |
47% |
45% |
-2% |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow |
8% |
22% |
18% |
16% |
17% |
+1% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise
Yue |
Survey not started yet |
39% |
-- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue |
3% |
-- |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick
Ma |
34% |
32% |
37% |
34% |
34% |
-- |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma |
23% |
24% |
21% |
22% |
25% |
+3% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael
Suen |
37% |
33% |
35% |
32% |
32%
|
-- |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen |
30% |
33% |
30% |
32% |
33% |
+1% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur
Li |
45% |
39% |
42% |
41% |
30% |
-11% |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li |
24% |
30% |
27% |
27% |
40% |
+13% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick
Ho |
36% |
33% |
36% |
31% |
29% |
-2% |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho |
26% |
28% |
26% |
26% |
33% |
+7% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen
Lam |
23% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
-1% |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam |
34% |
31% |
28% |
30% |
33% |
+3% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology
Joseph
Wong^^ |
36% |
33% |
34% |
31% |
22% |
-9% |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology
Joseph Wong^^ |
20% |
20% |
21% |
20% |
23% |
+3% |
| Vote of cofidence in Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John
Tsang |
37% |
33% |
32% |
31% |
Left |
| Vote of no cofidence in Secretary for
Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang |
7% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
|
|
* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same
cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins
specified.
^ Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also
varies.
^^ The position of Joseph Wong was changed from Secretary for the Civil Service to Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology on 24 January 2006.
Results of our survey conducted in early February revealed that the latest rating of CE Donald Tsang was 67.4 marks. Meanwhile, 68% of the respondents supported Tsang as the Chief Executive. By using a 5-point scale, 65% of the respondents thought Tsang was doing a good job as the CE, as contrast to only 5% who held the opposite view. As for Secretaries of Departments, the support ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 56.0, 63.0 and 65.0 marks, and 35%, 65% and 59% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 70%. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan followed behind in the 2nd rank who attained 58%. The 3rd to 5th ranks go to Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok and the newly appointed Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, obtaining supporting rates of 49%, 45% and 39% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 6th to 10th places, achieving 34%, 32%, 30%, 29% and 24%. Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping ranked the 11th, he gained 22% vote of confidence from the public. In other words, only Ambrose Lee and Stephen Ip scored approval rates of over 50%.
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Other than CS Rafael Hui, the popularity ratings and support rates of the CE and the Secretaries of Departments have not changed much compared to those one month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, in terms of changes in their support rates over the last two months, a significant drop of 11 percentage points is registered for the Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li, obviously due to the debate over education reform. The newly appointed Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue scored a mediocre rate of 39%, while the support rate for Joseph Wong dropped 9 percentage points as he moved from the post of Secretary for the Civil Service to Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology. This means people have some reservations on the suitability of his new appointment.」
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be February 14, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, the rating of Top Five Executive Councillors will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting this year, we have included a small educational section in our regular press release for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is still "FAQs of Opinion Research".
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: Why is there no support ratings for any Director of Bureau in this press release?
A: In order to avoid confusion, we have decided to release support ratings and support rates of the Directors of Bureaux every alternative month starting 2006. However, because the CE and the Secretaries of Departments are the core members of SARG's leadership, we will continue to conduct and release their support ratings and support rates in parallel.
Q: Why are we using different wordings to measure the support rates of CE and the principal officials?
A: 「Support rate」, 「approval rate」 and 「vote of confidence/dismissal」 used in this release are just a general expressions. One should always look at the exact wordings used in the questionnaire. To measure the support rate of the CE, we used this question -- 「If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for Donald Tsang Yam-kuen?」 To measure the support rate of the principal officials, we used this question -- 「If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of a certain official tomorrow, how would you vote?」 Put it in simple terms, we have tried our best to use the same concept modified to suit different situations.
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