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Press Release on January 3, 2006 |
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| Latest Figures | Commentary
| News about the POP Site | Some FAQs of Opinion Research
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Latest Figures
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE"
(http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census.
This is the last set of figures collected in 2005 for this series. Regarding macro-analyses for 2005 wrap-up stories, please refer to the half-yearly average figures and charts for these surveys available in our website. Recent figures are summarized below:
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| Date of survey |
11-14/4/05 |
20-23/6/05 |
22-25/8/05 |
17-21/10/05 |
15-19/12/05 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,009 |
1,026 |
1,004 |
1,009 |
1,016 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
62.8% |
61.9% |
63.5% |
65.6% |
63.8% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
-- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government** |
44% |
56% |
57% |
62% |
59% |
-3% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government** |
14% |
13% |
15% |
9% |
15% |
+6% |
| Trust in Beijing Government** |
40% |
48% |
46% |
50% |
44% |
-6% |
| Distrust in Beijing Government** |
26% |
22% |
26% |
21% |
27% |
+6% |
| Confidence in HK's future |
67% |
77% |
73% |
74% |
79% |
+5% |
| No-confidence in
HK's future |
19% |
11% |
20% |
17% |
13% |
-4% |
| Confidence in
China's future |
79% |
78% |
82% |
84% |
80% |
-4% |
| No-confidence in
China's future |
12% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
12% |
+2% |
| Confidence in
"one country, two systems" |
56% |
59% |
64% |
65% |
67% |
+2% |
| No-confidence in
"one country, two systems" |
31% |
24% |
27% |
26% |
23% |
-3% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
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Survey conducted in mid-December revealed that 59% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, and 44% trusted the Beijing Central Government. On the other hand, 79% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 80% had confidence in China's future, while 67% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our findings were recorded before Legco vetoed government's constitutional reform package. Among the five indicators of confidence and trust, people's trust in the local and central governments, as well as their confidence in China's future, have all receded to about that in August 2005. People's confidence in Hong Kong's future, however, has climbed to record high since October 1997, and their confidence in 'one country, two systems' has also climbed to record high since October 1998. The row on constitutional development has apparently taken its toll on people's trust in the central government, but not their confidence in Hong Kong's future development."
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News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be January 10, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from today, we have included a small educational section in our regular press release for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
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Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: Why is there no decimal place for the findings carried in this press release, whereas there are decimal places in the corresponding online tables?
A: It's a matter of accuracy. Since there are already sampling errors of a few percentage points, giving decimal places are not meaningful. It may also mislead readers into thinking that the findings are very representative and accurate up to a fraction of a percentage point. Since online tables are meant for more serious references, we have left the decimal places unscratched. Press releases are usually quoted directly by the media, so we prefer to emphasize the concept of accuracy.
Q: What is the difference between people's trust in governments and their appraisal of government performance?
A: People's trust in a government is often part of an attitude with deep roots, whereas their appraisal of a government's performance may be swayed by specific policies. Both are useful indicators, but for governments which are relatively more remote but nevertheless important, like the Central Government and the Taiwan Government in the heart of Hong Kong people, "trust in government" is probably a more useful measurement.
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