HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and HKSAR Government, the 2005 year-end and 2006 forecast surveyBack

Press Release on December 29, 2005

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest figures on the popularity of CE Donald Tsang, people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government, as well as the 2005 year-end and 2006 forecast survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. For the first two items, this is the last release of the year. Regarding macro-analyses for year-end stories, please refer to the half-yearly average figures and charts for these surveys available in our website. Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	25-29/10	1-7/11	18-23/11	30/11-5/12	15-19/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,017	1,003	1,019	1,017	1,016	--
Overall response rate	63.5%	64.6%	62.9%	62.5%	63.8%	--
Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.2	--
Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	68.2	67.1	67.4	65.6	64.2	-1.4
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	75%	75%	72%	68%	64%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	6%	8%	10%	11%	15%	+4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	57%	--	51%	--	49%	-2%^
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	9%	--	10%	--	12%	+2%^

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Results of our survey conducted in mid-December revealed that the latest rating of CE Donald Tsang was 64.2 marks. Meanwhile, 64% of the respondents supported Tsang as the Chief Executive, whereas 15% did not. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 49% were satisfied, whereas 12% were dissatisfied.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang were recorded before Legco vetoed his constitutional reform package. Both his popularity rating and support rate remain high, but they have been dragged down by the dispute to become historical low after he took office as CE. Likewise, people's satisfaction with the SAR government has also dropped, but much slower than one month before. Whether Tsang could satisfactorily handle society's conflicts after his first duty visit to Beijing would certainly affect his and the government's popularity in the near future."

As for people's year-end review of 2005 and their forecast for 2006, the figures are summarized below, together with parallel figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey	13-18/12/02	20-23/12/03	18-23/12/04	15-19/12/05	Latest change
Sample base	1,026	1,022	1,020	1,016	--
Overall response rate	67.6%	66.0%	67.4%	63.8%	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	--
Satisfied with HK's development for the year past**	14%	25%	38%	60%	+22%
Dissatisfied with HK's development for the year past**	62%	46%	29%	12%	-17%
Expected HK's development to be better next year	42%	74%	65%	58%	-7%
Expected HK's development to be worse next year	28%	6%	9%	11%	+2%
Perceived economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	78%	54%	50%	45%	-5%
Perceived constitutional development to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	4%	8%	12%	17%	+5%
Wished HK becomes a prosperous society	47%	38%	38%	37%	-1%
Wished HK becomes a fair society	20%	24%	24%	29%	+5%
Wished HK becomes a free society	22%	22%	23%	18%	-5%
Respondents who were happy for the year past**	39%	37%	48%	61%	+13%
Respondents who were unhappy for the year past**	27%	23%	19%	11%	-8%
Expected personal development to become better next year	37%	52%	53%	53%	--
Expected personal development to become worse next year	21%	9%	8%	7%	-1%
New year wishes: Economic-related	43%	31%	27%	23%	-4%
New year wishes: Personal health	7%	15%	13%	14%	+1%
New year wishes: Personal career or studies	12%	13%	12%	11%	-1%
New year wishes: World peace	9%	10%	8%	13%	+5%
No special wish	10%	12%	11%	12%	+1%

Looking back to the whole year of 2005, 60% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past, 12% were dissatisfied. Meanwhile, 58% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 11% said it would be worse. Besides, 45% considered that "economy" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 17% thought "constitutional development" was the most pressing. Given the choice of a "prosperous", "free", "fair", "welfare", and "clean" society, 37% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become "a prosperous society", while 29% and 18% respectively opted for a "fair" and "free" society.

Findings also suggested that 61% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 11% were not. As regards the prospect for the coming year, 53% believed their personal development would become better, 7% thought they would become worse off. As for people's new year wishes, 23% were economic-related, 14% on personal health, 11% on personal career or studies and 13% on world peace. However, 12% did not make any wish.

Robert Chung observed again, "The percentage of people satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past has jumped 22 percentage points to reach a record high of 60% since this series of surveys began in 1992. Moreover, 61% said they were happy in the year past, a record high after the handover, and people's optimism of their personal development in the year to come has also reached record high since we began to ask this question in 1993. There is little doubt that people are quite satisfied with the year 2005, obviously due to the change of SARG leadership."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be January 3, 2006, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released.

Besides, since the micro and macro analyses for all POP tracking survey series have already been published in the POP Site, according to the frequencies of different surveys, POP will not further compile year-end summaries for them. Everyone is welcome to quote the macro-analysis figures and charts carried in the POP Site for year-end summaries and analyses. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.