HKU POP SITE releases the latest results of survey on constitutional reformBack

In order to gauge people's views towards universal suffrage and the government's constitutional reform package, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has conducted two rounds of surveys on constitutional reform before and after the December 4 Rally using the same set of questions. The first survey was conducted before the rally and sponsored by the Apple Daily, while the second one was conducted after the rally and sponsored by the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI). For both surveys, POP was fully responsible for designing the survey and conducting the fieldwork, quality control, data analysis and press release compilation, without any interference from the client. The results of the first survey have already been released via the Apple Daily and the "HKU POP SITE". This press release carries the latest results of the second survey sponsored by NDI, and compares them with those of the first survey. For detailed results, please refer to the "HKU POP SITE".

Both surveys were conducted by telephone interviewers, and the target population was Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census.

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

According to the latest survey conducted from 9 to 12 December, 43% of the respondents supported the government's constitutional reform package. However, 52% thought the government should include a timetable for universal suffrage in the reform package. While some Legislative Council members said they would vote against the reform package if the government refused to include the timetable, 47% would not support such a move whereas 25% said they would. Concerning the universal suffrage of the Chief Executive and the Legislative Council, 29% and 38% respectively thought they should be achieved by the next session, while 58% and 61% said they should be achieved In or before 2012.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed, "Comparing the results of the two rounds of surveys, it is found that the people's views towards the reform package before and after the December 4 Rally have remained practically unchanged, meaning that public opinion is very stable. In both surveys, nearly 45% found the government's reform package acceptable, but over half demanded the inclusion of timetable for universal suffrage in the reform package. Nevertheless, if the government insists on not including it, only less than 30% would like to see the package voted down. In other words, people accepts a package without timetable, but it would become a win-win situation if a timetable could be included."

Robert Chung also observed, "During our latest survey, 25 respondents said they had taken part in the December 4 Rally. As expected, the vast majority of them demanded that universal suffrage should be achieved before 2012, and would like to see the inclusion of timetable for universal suffrage in the reform package. However, about one-fifth of them also supported the government's package, and would not like to see the package voted down due to its lack of timetable for universal suffrage. In other words, not all December 4 Rally participants are completely against the government's proposal, but for the sake of promoting consensus in society, the government should also make some appropriate concessions."

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.