HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the Principal OfficialsBack


Press Release on December 13, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are first summarized as follows:

 
  Date of survey  3-6/10   12/10   25-29/10   1-7/11   30/11-5/12   Latest change 
  Sample base  1,010   914   1,017   1,003   1,017   -- 
  Overall response rate  64.2%   66.1%   63.5%   64.6%   62.5%   -- 
  Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)*  +/-1.0   +/-1.1   +/-1.0   +/-1.0   +/-1.0   -- 
  Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)*  +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   -- 
  Rating of CE Donald Tsang  68.0   67.4   68.2   67.1   65.6   -1.5 
  Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang  77%   74%   75%   75%   68%   -7% 
  Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang  8%   9%   6%   8%   11%   +3% 

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 65.6 marks, and 68% supported him as the Chief Executive. Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Dragged by the row on constitutional reform, the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has dropped significantly before and after the December 4 Rally. His popularity rating and support rate have dropped back to that three months ago, before he announced his trip to the Pearl River Delta with all Legco members, and also getting near to the level when he first succeeded the post of Chief Executive. If Tsang cannot find a win-win solution in the near future, for both the people and the government, his popularity would be subject to further pressure downward.」

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
  Date of survey  1-4/8   1-7/9   3-6/10   1-7/11   30/11-5/12   Latest change 
  Sample base  1,015   1,007   1,010   1,003   1,017   -- 
  Overall response rate  59.4%   62.0%   64.2%   64.6%   62.5%   -- 
  Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)*  +/- 1.6   +/- 1.4   +/-1.6   +/-1.4   +/-1.6   -- 
  SJ Y.L. Wong  Survey not started yet   63.1 65.3 +2.2
  FS Henry Tang  63.3   62.5   63.6   60.9   61.7   +0.8 
  CS Rafael Hui  57.0   58.5   57.8   60.2   57.9   -2.3 
  Ex - SJ Elsie Leung  51.8   53.1   53.0   Resigned  --
  Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee  61.7   61.9   64.0   62.2   62.3   +0.1 
  Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip  59.3   58.4   60.6   59.2   58.9   -0.3 
  Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao  57.8   58.6   59.3   58.6   56.1   -2.5 
  Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang  54.7   54.8   56.1   56.1   55.6   -0.5 
  Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow  52.4   52.7   56.5   56.0   55.3   -0.7 
  Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li  52.9   52.0   54.2   54.1   53.6   -0.5 
  Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong  51.3   51.5   52.9   53.1   51.9   -1.2 
  Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma  50.3   52.6   53.1   53.5   51.5   -2.0 
  Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho  49.5   49.1   51.0   51.3   50.5   -0.8 
  Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen  50.0   51.0   51.4   51.3   49.6   -1.7 
  Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam  45.3   47.1   48.2   49.1   46.8   -2.3 

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

Our latest survey showed that the ratings of SJ Wong Yan-lung, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and CS Rafael Hui Si-yan were 65.3, 61.7 and 57.9 marks respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 62.3 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung ranked 2nd and 3rd, scoring 58.9 and 56.1 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok followed behind, attaining 55.6 and 55.3 marks respectively. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang occupied the 6th to 8th ranks, scoring 53.6, 51.9 and 51.5 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 9th to 11th places, with popularity ratings of 50.5, 49.6 and 46.8 marks.

 
As for the popularity indicators based on people's hypothetical reappointment or dismissal votes, the approval and disapproval rates of the Principal Officials are summarized as follows:

  Date of survey  11-14/4   1-3/6   1-4/8   3-6/10   30/11-5/12   Latest change* 
  Sample base  1,009   1,015   1,015   1,010   1,017   -- 
  Overall response rate  62.8%   65.6%   59.4%   64.2%   62.5%   -- 
  Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)**  +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   -- 
  FS Henry Tang  60% [4%]   63% [5%]   70% [6%]   68% [7%]   61% [9%]   -7% [+2%] 
  SJ Y.L. Wong  Survey not started yet 58% [3%]   --  
  CS Rafael Hui  Survey not started yet 33% [4%]    37% [6%]  39% [8%]   +2% [+2%]  
  Ex - SJ Elsie Leung  --   35% [30%]   36% [30%]   33% [31%]   Resigned   -- 
  Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee  --   70% [3%]   67% [3%]   73% [2%]   67% [3%]   -6% [+1%] 
  Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip  --   59% [5%]   56% [7%]   59% [5%]   53% [6%]   -6% [+1%] 
  Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao  --   56% [16%]   55% [15%]   59% [14%]   47% [20%]   -12% [+6%] 
  Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow  --   60% [8%]   40% [22%]   49% [18%]   47% [16%]   -2% [-2%] 
  Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li  --   45% [24%]   39% [30%]   42% [27%]   41% [27%]   -1% [--] 
  Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma  --   34% [23%]   32% [24%]   37% [21%]   34% [22%]   -3% [+1%] 
  Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen  --   37% [30%]   33% [33%]   35% [30%]   32% [32%]   -3% [+2%] 
  Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho  --   36% [26%]   33% [28%]   36% [26%]   31% [26%]   -5% [--] 
  Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang  --   37% [7%]   33% [8%]   32% [8%]   31% [7%]   -1% [-1%] 
  Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong  --   36% [20%]   33% [20%]   34% [21%]   31% [20%]   -3% [-1%] 
  Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam  --   23% [34%]   26% [31%]   25% [28%]   25% [30%]   -- [+2%] 
* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Henry Tang, Y.L. Wong and Rafael Hui were 61%, 58% and 39% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Ambrose Lee and Stephen Ip scored approval rates of over 50%, at 67% and 53% correspondingly.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Among the principal officials, the popularity of SJ Wong Yan-lung continues to rise, now very close to that of CE Donald Tsang. The popularity ratings of FS Henry Tang and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee increased a bit, but only within sampling errors. Other than these three officials, the popularity of all others has dropped, signaling a decline in government's popularity on the whole. Officials with biggest drops include Sarah Liao, Rafael Hui, Stephen Lam, Frederick Ma and Michael Suen. The number of officials failing to reach the benchmark score of 50 has also increased from one to two."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be December 20, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, we will release the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current social conditions and people's ethnic identity.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.