HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups as well as details of the WAPOR Hong Kong ConferenceBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. To facilitate better understanding of our "Top 10" series, starting from this release, while the research method has remained the same, we will also include the following two pieces of supplementary information: (1) The ratings of political figures or groups being dropped in the final stage of the rating exercise due to their relatively low recognition rates, provided that they still attain 50% recognition rate; (2) Overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over an extended period of time, which is set at past 12 calendar months for "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" and "Top 10 Political Groups" surveys. The following table shows the findings of the latest survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census.

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

Findings obtained in mid-November showed that, the best-known political group was Article 45 Concern Group (A45 Concern Gp) which attained 53.8 marks. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) ranked 2nd to 4th, achieving 52.7, 51.7 and 49.7 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 5th to 10th ranks fell to Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC), Frontier and April Fifth Action (AFA), with respective scores of 48.2, 48.0, 47.5, 46.5, 45.7 and 37.5 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 51.2 marks. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top 10 political groups were all listed for four times. A45 Concern Group was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 53.8 marks. FTU and CTU ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 52.1 and 51.3 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 4th to 10th ranks fell to LP, ADPL, DP, DAB, Frontier, HKASPDMC and finally AFA, with respective scores of 48.7, 48.6, 47.9, 47.0, 45.8, 45.6 and 36.6 marks. 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「There are ups and downs in the popularity of the top 10 political groups, Liberal Party in the middle-rank registered the biggest drop while AFA at the bottom registered the biggest increase. Article 45 Concern Group continues to top the list, while DP again overtakes Liberal Party and DAB.」 Regarding the method ranking political groups, Chung explained, 「Our "Top 10 Political Groups" include only groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they have not been included in our "Top 10" list. Moreover, because overall rankings are based on results obtained over an extended period of time, they are relatively more stable, but are less sensitive to recent changes. Two sides of the same coin.」

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between November 1-7. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between November 18-23, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. For this latest survey, the Neighbourhood and Workers Service (NWS) and Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) obtained a support rating of 53.2 and 47.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

An international conference, namely 「Public Opinion: East Meets West」, organized by the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP), will be held from 8 to 10 December (this Thursday to Saturday) in the University of Hong Kong. All journalists are welcome. One important event of the conference is a free seminar tailor-made for local journalists and policy researchers, in which Professor Evans Witt, a renowned academic in public opinion, will speak on 「20 Questions a Journalist should ask about Poll Results」, with details as follows:

• Date: 8 December (Thursday)

• Time: 1430 – 1630

• Venue: Wang GungWu Lecture Theatre, Graduate House, HKU
  

Professor Witt is one of the authors of the original 「20 Questions」. We have taken this opportunity to translate the whole document into Chinese, which will be dispatched to all participants of the seminar for free. Because the number of seats are limited, intending participants are asked to send their names, contact numbers and email addresses to Ms Kitty Chan by fax at 2517-6951 or email [email protected] to reserve their seats. All remaining seats will be provided on a first-come-first-serve basis. For details of the seminar and the entire conference, please go to our POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be December 13, 2005, Tuesday, at 2pm, the latest figures on the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.