HKU POP SITE releases CE and SARG popularity figures as well as research plans for the December 4 RallyBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are first summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycles for these items are different from the rest. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.

Results of our survey conducted in mid-November revealed that the latest rating of CE Donald Tsang was 67.4 marks, and 72% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 51% were satisfied, whereas 10% were dissatisfied.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Both the popularity rating and support rate of CE Donald Tsang continue to fluctuate within narrow and statistically insignificant ranges. People's satisfaction with the SAR government, however, has dropped back to that of two months ago. Exactly how the government would react to the demands of those people taking to the street on December 4 will no doubt set the scene for CE and SARG's popularity development in the near future."

Regarding the number of people who would demonstrate on December 4, Robert Chung said, "HKUPOP does not have any survey figure to do the projection yet. However, because CE and SARG now enjoy considerable public support, any rally which aims at creating confrontation may not be able to win the heart of the people. On the contrary, a rally which stresses peaceful expression of people's determination to call for democracy, backed with good reasons and a genuine faith, may be able to win more people."

As with other large-scale rallies in the past, HKUPOP will assist the HKU Student Research Team to conduct a headcount of demonstrators during the forthcoming December 4 Rally, using the same method as that for the last two July 1 Rallies. The HKU Student Research Team intends to accept sponsorship from any print media for the operation, in return for their exclusive use in next day's newspapers. Interested media please contact Miss Chau at 2859-2988 for further information. The methodology used in these headcounts can be found at the HKU POP SITE, under "Special Features" - "Research on Mass Gatherings and Rallies Feature Page". Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, the Director of the Public Opinion Programme, is the advisor of the HKU Student Research Team, but the responsibility of the head counting exercise rests entirely on the Student Research Team.

Also on December 4, Joseph Man Chan, Professor at the School of Journalism and Communication, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong, will again conduct a sample survey of demonstrators onsite, in order to study the demands of the demonstrators. Findings of the survey are expected to be available in ten days' time.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release will be December 6, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the top 10 Political Groups will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.