HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of Principal Officials and non-official members of the Executive CouncilBack


Press Release on October 18, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the popularity figures of Principal Officials under the accountability system and non-official members of the Executive Council registered before Donald Tsang gave his first Policy Address. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 

 Date of survey 1-3/6 4-6/7 1-4/8 1-7/9 3-6/10 Latest change
 Sample base 1,015 1,020 1,015 1,007 1,010 --
 Overall response rate 65.6% 61.9% 59.4% 62.0% 64.2% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.6 +/-1.4 +/-1.6 --
 FS Henry Tang 63.0 1 63.7 63.3 62.5 63.6 +1.1
 CS Rafael Hui Survey not started yet 60.5 57.0 58.5 57.8 -0.7
 SJ Elsie Leung 50.2 54.3 51.8 53.1 53.0 -0.1
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 62.8 61.0 61.7 61.9 64.0 +2.1
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 60.5 59.8 59.3 58.4 60.6 +2.2
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 58.3 58.5 57.8 58.6 59.3 +0.7
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 60.5 57.4 52.4 52.7 56.5 +3.8
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 55.8 55.3 54.7 54.8 56.1 +1.3
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 53.7 53.8 52.9 52.0 54.2 +2.2
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 51.5 52.3 50.3 52.6 53.1 +0.5
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 51.9 52.8 51.3 51.5 52.9 +1.4
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 49.8 2 51.3 50.0 51.0 51.4 +0.4
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 49.7 52.2 49.5 49.1 51.0 +1.9
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 45.1 47.5 45.3 47.1 48.2 +1.1

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
1 Henry Tang was also the Acting Chief Executive at that time.
2 Michael Suen was also the Acting Chief Secretary at that time.

 

Our survey conducted in early October showed that the ratings of FS Henry Tang Ying-yen, CS Rafael Hui Si-yan and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 63.6, 57.8 and 53.0 marks respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 64.0 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung ranked 2nd and 3rd, scoring 60.6 and 59.3 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung followed behind, aattaining 56.5, 56.1 and 54.2 marks respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping occupied the 7th to 10th ranks, who scored 53.1, 52.9, 51.4 and 51.0 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place with a popularity rating of 48.2 marks.

 

As for the popularity indicators based on people's hypothetical reappointment or dismissal votes, the approval and disapproval rates of the Principal Officials are summarized as follows:

 

 Date of survey 1-6/4 11-14/4 1-3/6 1-4/8 3-6/10 Latest change*
 Sample base 1,024 1,009 1,015 1,015 1,010 --
 Overall response rate 63.1% 62.8% 65.6% 59.4% 64.2% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)** +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/-3% +/-3% --
 FS Henry Tang 61% [6%] 60% [4%] 63% [5%] 70% [6%] 68% [7%] -2% [+1%]
 CS Rafael Hui Survey not started yet 33% [4%] 37% [6%] +4% [+2%]
 SJ Elsie Leung 31% [30%] -- 35% [30%] 36% [30%] 33% [31%] -3% [+2%]
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 65% [3%] -- 70% [3%] 67% [3%] 73% [2%] +6% [-1%]
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 65% [7%] -- 56% [16%] 55% [15%] 59% [14%] +4% [-1%]
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 56% [5%] -- 59% [5%] 56% [7%] 59% [5%] +3% [-1%]
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 54% [9%] -- 60% [8%] 40% [22%] 49% [18%] +9% [-5%]
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 44% [22%] -- 45% [24%] 39% [30%] 42% [27%] +3% [-2%]
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 32% [25%] -- 34% [23%] 32% [24%] 37% [21%] +5% [-3%]
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 34% [22%] -- 36% [26%] 33% [28%] 36% [26%] +3% [-1%]
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 28% [33%] -- 37% [30%] 33% [33%] 35% [30%] +2% [-3%]
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 29% [24%] -- 36% [20%] 33% [20%] 34% [21%] +1% [+1%]
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 29% [9%] -- 37% [7%] 33% [8%] 32% [8%] -1% [--]
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 23% [32%] -- 23% [34%] 26% [31%] 25% [28%] -1% [-3%]

* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.

 

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Henry Tang, Rafael Hui and Elsie Leung were 68%, 37% and 33% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Ambrose Lee, Sarah Liao and Stephen Ip scored approval rates of over 50%, at 73%, 59% and 59% correspondingly. For the latest popularity figures of non-official members of the Executive Council, recent figures are summarized as follows:

 

 Date of survey 4-7/10/04 3-6/1/05 1-6/4/05 4-6/7/05 3-6/10 Latest change
 Sample base 1,016 1,022 1,024 1,020 1,010 --
 Overall response rate 62.4% 64.6% 63.1% 61.9% 64.2% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/-1.6 --
 Non-official member Selina Chow 56.1 55.8 58.9 58.5 59.6 +1.1
 Non-official member Bernard C Chan Survey not started yet ** ** 54.0 55.2 +1.2
 Non-official member Cheng Yiu-tong 47.4 47.9 47.2 49.8 51.0 +1.2
 Non-official member Jasper Tsang 45.1 47.5 46.3 48.8 49.9 +1.1
 Non-official member Leung Chun-ying 43.3 45.5 46.3 47.8 48.7 +0.9
 Non-official member Liao Cheung-sing ** ** ** ** ** --
 Non-official member Laura M Cha Survey not started yet ** ** ** ** --
 Sit-in member Lau Siu-kai 48.8 50.1 50.4 51.1 51.9 +0.8
 Ex-sit-in member Lam Woon-kwong 52.3 52.4 Resigned --

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.

 

The survey conducted in early October revealed that, regarding people's ratings of non-official members of the Executive Council, Selina Chow topped the list, attaining 59.6 marks. Bernard C Chan followed behind with 55.2 marks. The ratings of Cheng Yiu-tong, Jasper Tsang and Leung Chun-ying were 51.0, 49.9 and 48.7 marks correspondingly, while those of Liao Cheung-sing and Laura M Cha were not taken as representative because of their less-than-50% recognition rates. As for the sit-in member, the Head of Central Policy Unit Lau Siu-kai scored 51.9 marks.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "This survey was conducted before Donald Tsang revamped the Executive Council and the accountability system for principal officials in his policy address. As a wrap-up, our long-time series shows that non-official Exco members have always been on the low side of the popularity scale. Usually, only four non-official Exco members manage to pass the benchmark of 50% recognition rate, and only one of them gets over 50 marks in terms of support rating. Whereas for the 11 Directors of Bureaux, most of them usually score 45 to 60 marks, not counting the early stage of confusion. Such scores dropped around July 1 in 2003 and 2004, but have gone up recently. As for the Secretaries of Departments, since we have only three Secretaries and their scores are affected by their personal flavour, it is difficult to draw a general conclusion. Tsang's recent expansion of the Exco and his reorganization of the reporting system of principal officials could change the popularity structure of his entire cabinet."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release will be October 25, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, we will release the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems".

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.