HKU POP SITE releases findings on people's expectation of CE's Policy Address Back

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings on people's expectation of the first Policy Address of CE Donald Tsang. Figures on people's expectation of different policy addresses in recent years are tabulated as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

According to our survey conducted in late September, when asked to name unaided one issue that CE Donald Tsang should focus on in his first Policy Address to be announced this Wednesday, 38% of the respondents wished he would take "economic development" as his first priority, while 20% chose "labour and employment". Besides, 7% chose "social welfare", while "medical policy", "political development" and "education" each took up 5%, and 13% of the respondents failed to give a specific answer.

In order to further study people's expectations, another set of questions was asked in early October. Respondents were asked to evaluate each of the 6 top items mentioned individually, on a 5-point scale, how necessary each item has to be tackled in the Policy Address. While the main results are summarized below, please refer to the "HKU POP SITE" for detailed figures.:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Percentages in this column may not be equal to the sum of percentages shown in the columns of "very necessary" and "quite necessary" due to the round-off problem.

When asked to evaluate each item individually, labour and employment issues topped the list, as 93% of the respondents said CE Donald Tsang needed to tackle this in the coming Policy Address. Economic development, education, medical policy and social welfare issues followed, as 89%, 87%, 86% and 82% thought they need to be tackled in the Policy Address correspondingly. Meanwhile, 64% said it is necessary to tackle political development issues.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, explained, "We used a two-stage design to study people's expectation of the forthcoming Policy Address this year, because we want to study both the relative and absolute importance of different policy items. In relative terms, economic development and labour-employment issues have no doubt topped the list in recent years. However, upon in-depth analysis, education, medical and social welfare policies are also important in absolute terms. All items are rated by 80-90% of the respondents as 'necessary', including 50-60% rating them as 'very necessary'. Even for political development, about 65% rated it as 'necessary', including about 25% who rated it as 'very necessary'. The priorities of economic development and labour-employment issues have interchanged in our two waves of surveys, probably because when not prompted, many respondents believed economic development has already included labour and employment. When rated on its own, labour-employment stands out to be the most pressing item."

When Donald Tsang first attended a question-and-answer session in the Legislative Council as Chief Executive, he cited many findings from government surveys without giving details. Robert Chung today appeals to the Chief Executive not to repeat this practice. In case CE wishes to cite opinion findings in his first Policy Address, he should at least reveal their source, research method, contact information, full text of questionnaire, date of survey, sampling method, response rate, weighting method and standard sampling error. The government can first study the standards adopted by the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR, website at http://www.unl.edu/WAPOR/) and other international organizations of similar caliber before making a decision.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. Since CE Donald Tsang will announce his first Policy Address on October 12, Wednesday, we will release the latest popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's instant reactions towards the Policy Address the next day (October 13, Thursday) at 2 pm. Then, on October 18, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of Principal Officials under the accountability system and non-official members of the Executive Council will be released.

Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.