HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and TaiwanBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan. To facilitate better understanding of our "Top 10" series, while the research method has remained the same, we have also included the following two pieces of supplementary information: (1) The ratings of political figures dropped in the final stage of the rating exercise due to their relatively low recognition rates, provided that they still attain 50% recognition rate; (2) Overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over an extended period of time, which is set at past 24 calendar months for surveys on "top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan". The following table shows the findings of the latest survey. As a general practice, our figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census.

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

Survey conducted in mid-September revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Wen Jiabao, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao were the most popular political figures, attaining 76.5, 76.2 and 74.3 marks respectively. Zeng Qinghong, who visited Hong Kong earlier this month, ranked 4th and scored 67.4 marks. Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and Lien Chan occupied the 5th to 7th ranks, attaining 65.6, 65.4 and 56.8 marks correspondingly. The 8th to 10th ranks fell to Chen Shui-bian, Lu Hsiu-lien and Lee Teng-hui, with respective scores of 38.9, 38.3 and 37.7 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 72.0 marks, while that for the top 10 was 59.7 marks. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 24 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 24 months.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 24 months showed that nine political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Zhu Rongji in the top rank achieving an average rating of 75.4 marks, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao who ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 73.3 and 71.3 marks correspondingly, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and Lien Chan who ranked 4th to 6th with respective scores of 64.7, 63.7 and 52.5 marks, and Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Lu Hsiu-lien at the 7th to 9th ranks, attaining 33.4, 32.0 and 31.9 marks correspondingly. Li Peng and Zeng Qinghong were listed for three times and one time respectively, they occupied the 10th and 11th ranks.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "As political tension across the Strait relaxes, Hong Kong people's rating of the their best known cross-strait political figures increases across the board. Vice President Zeng Qinghong who visited Hong Kong this month comes on the list for the first time, at the 4th rank. Premier Wen Jiabao is now at the top, surpassing past Premier Zhu Rongji for the first time. The new Chairman of Kuomingtang Ma Ying-jeou now ranks 6th, and becomes the most popular Taiwan political figure. In terms of overall rankings in the past two years, the top positions go to Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao in ranked order." Regarding the method of ranking political figures, Chung explained, "Our 'Top 10' includes only figures who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they have not been included in our 'Top 10'. Moreover, because the two-year overall rankings are based on results obtained over a number of surveys, they are relatively more stable, but are less sensitive to recent changes. There are two sides to every coin."

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Ma Ying-jeou, Chen Shui-bian, Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Lien Chan were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid-September, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For this latest survey, Wu Yi and James Soong obtained support ratings of 69.9 and 57.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be October 4, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, we will release the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.