HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's opinions on Taiwan issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leadersBack


Press Release on September 20, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings of people's opinions on Taiwan issues and their appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. People's opinions towards Taiwan issues are first summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 13-15/9/04 6-9/12/04 1-3/3/05 6-8/6/05 1-7/9/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,023 1,007 1,019 1,029 1,007 --
 Overall response rate 64.4% 67.8% 63.1% 66.0% 62.0% --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Taiwan independence: Opposition rate 75% 78% 78% 77% 81% +4%
 Taiwan independence: Support rate 12% 11% 12% 9% 10% +1%
 Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate 52% 58% 58% 53% 58% +5%
 Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate 27% 24% 26% 24% 26% +2%
 Confidence in cross-strait reunification 39% 42% 53% 50% 68% +18%
 No-confidence in cross-strait reunification 45% 43% 36% 34% 22% -12%
 Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to TW 44% 45% 49% 42% 50% +8%
 Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to TW 36% 37% 37% 37% 35% -2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

Results obtained in early September revealed that 81% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed to the independence of Taiwan whereas only 10% showed support. Meanwhile, 58% opposed to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 26% supported it. Moreover, 68% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 22% expressed no confidence. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 50% gave a positive view while 35 % gave a negative view.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Over 80% of Hong Kong people opposed to the independence of Taiwan, while nearly 70% expressed confidence in ultimate reunification, both figures being record high since this series of questions began in June 1993. On the other hand, 50% believed that 'one country, two systems' could be applied to Taiwan, which is also a record high figure since this question was introduced in November 1996. The 18 percentage-point leap in people's confidence in cross-strait reunification was probably due to people's enthusiasm at Ma Ying-jeou's becoming the new Chairman of Kuomintang, after the operation of cross-strait direct charter flights in the Chinese New Year and the visits of Lien Chan and Jame Soong to Mainland China."

 

As for Hong Kong people's appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, POP has been tracking people's appraisal of these leaders since 1995, but our series on Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek stopped in 2003, while that on more recently deceased leaders Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun and Deng Xiaoping continued. The most recent results are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 10-15/7/02 14-16/7/03 14-17/3/05 1-7/9/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,052 1,073 1,017 1,007 --
 Overall response rate 67.8% 69.2% 63.5% 62.0% --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Deng Xiaoping had accrued more merits 71% 70% 76% 78% +2%
 Deng Xiaoping had accrued more faults 3% 5% 2% 4% +2%
 Zhao Ziyang had accrued more merits -- -- 58% 62% +4%
 Zhao Ziyang had accrued more faults -- -- 3% 4% +1%
 Yang Shangkun had accrued more merits -- -- 12% 20% +8%
 Yang Shangkun had accrued more faults -- -- 13% 18% +5%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

According to our latest survey, those considering Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang have accrued more merits than faults in the development of China accounted for 78% and 62% respectively. For Yang Shangkun, 20% of the respondents thought he has accrued more merits than faults, 18% found more faults than merits in Yang, while 43% of the respondents had no idea.

 

Robert Chung observed again, "When appraising the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, Hong Kong people may differ significantly from people in Taiwan and the Mainland. Putting our past figures together, Hong Kong people have clearly judged Deng Xiaoping, Zhou Enlai and Zhao Ziyang as having accrued more merits than faults in terms of China's development, while Mao Zedong, Chiang Kai-Shek and Yang Shangkun have been judged as only half and half. How the other Chinese societies appraise the merits and faults of these leaders will be a very useful comparison."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to our schedule, the date and time of our next release of survey findings will be September 27, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.