HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the Principal OfficialsBack


Press Release on August 9, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are first summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 1-4/2^ 20-23/6 4-6/7 25-29/7 1-4/8 Latest change
 Sample base 1,019 1,026 1,020 1,014 1,015 --
 Overall response rate 61.5% 61.9% 61.9% 64.0% 59.4% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.4 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.0 +/-1.2 +/-1.2 --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/-3% +/-3% --
 Rating of CE Donald Tsang 70.4 72.3 71.4 69.0 67.4 -1.6
 Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang 74% 75% 77% 72% 66% -6%
 Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang 9% 8% 7% 7% 10% +3%
 Considered Tsang was doing a good job as CE** 52% -- -- -- 48% -4%^^
 Considered Tsang was doing a bad job as CE** 8% -- -- -- 3% -5%^^

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ Donald Tsang was the CS during the survey period.
^^ The polling cycles for these items are different from the rest. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.

 

The latest survey conducted in early August shows that, CE Donald Tsang scored 67.4 marks, while 66% supported him as the CE. By using a 5-point scale, 48% of the respondents thought Tsang was doing a good job as the CE, as contrast to 3% who held the opposite view. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 1-6/4 3-6/5 1-3/6 4-6/7 1-4/8 Latest change
 Sample base 1,024 1,024 1,015 1,020 1,015 --
 Overall response rate 63.1% 64.4% 65.6% 61.9% 59.4% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.6 --
 FS Henry Tang 60.4 62.1 63.01 63.7 63.3 -0.4
 CS Rafael Hui Survey not started yet 60.5 57.0 -3.5
 SJ Elsie Leung 49.9 51.4 50.2 54.3 51.8 -2.5
 Ex-CS Donald Tsang 69.32 71.22 Resigned
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 62.4 59.5 62.8 61.0 61.7 +0.7
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 59.5 57.2 60.5 59.8 59.3 -0.5
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 62.6 57.9 58.3 58.5 57.8 -0.7
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 54.0 54.1 55.8 55.3 54.7 -0.6
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 54.7 53.2 53.7 53.8 52.9 -0.9
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 59.0 57.1 60.5 57.4 52.4 -5.0
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 49.7 49.9 51.9 52.8 51.3 -1.5
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 50.1 50.3 51.5 52.3 50.3 -2.0
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 48.0 48.2 49.83 51.3 50.0 -1.3
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 50.3 49.2 49.7 52.2 49.5 -2.7
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 44.8 44.4 45.1 47.5 45.3 -2.2

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
1 Henry Tang was also the Acting Chief Executive at that time.
2 Donald Tsang was also the Acting Chief Executive at that time.
3 Michael Suen was also the Acting Chief Secretary at that time.

 

Our survey conducted in early August showed that the ratings of FS Henry Tang Ying-yen, CS Rafael Hui Si-yan and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 63.3, 57.0 and 51.8 marks respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell on Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 61.7 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan, Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah ranked 2nd to 4th, scoring 59.3, 57.8 and 54.7 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok followed behind, attaining 52.9 and 52.4 marks respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping occupied the 7th to 10th ranks, who scored 51.3, 50.3, 50.0 and 49.5 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place with a popularity rating of 45.3 marks.

 

As for the popularity indicators based on people's hypothetical reappointment or dismissal votes, the approval and disapproval rates of the Principal Officials are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 1-4/2 1-6/4 11-14/4 1-3/6 1-4/8 Latest change*
 Sample base 1,019 1,024 1,009 1,015 1,015 --
 Overall response rate 61.5% 63.1% 62.8% 65.6% 59.4% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)** +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/-3% --
 FS Henry Tang 61% [8%] 61% [6%] 60% [4%] 63% [5%] 70% [6%] +7% [+1%]
 SJ Elsie Leung 30% [35%] 31% [30%] -- 35% [30%] 36% [30%] +1% [--]
 CS Rafael Hui Survey not started yet 33% [4%] -- [--]
 Ex-CS Donald Tsang 64% [6%] Acting CE Resigned
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 68% [3%] 65% [3%] -- 70% [3%] 67% [3%] -3% [--]
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 55% [6%] 56% [5%] -- 59% [5%] 56% [7%] -3% [+2%]
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 68% [7%] 65% [7%] -- 56% [16%] 55% [15%] -1% [-1%]
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 56% [5%] 54% [9%] -- 60% [8%] 40% [22%] -20% [+14%]
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 46% [23%] 44% [22%] -- 45% [24%] 39% [30%] -6% [+6%]
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 29% [23%] 29% [24%] -- 36% [20%] 33% [20%] -3% [--]
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 25% [40%] 28% [33%] -- 37% [30%] 33% [33%] -4% [+3%]
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 38% [21%] 34% [22%] -- 36% [26%] 33% [28%] -3% [+2%]
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 31% [10%] 29% [9%] -- 37% [7%] 33% [8%] -4% [+1%]
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 31% [22%] 32% [25%] -- 34% [23%] 32% [24%]^ -2% [+1%]
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 23% [32%] 23% [32%] -- 23% [34%] 26% [31%]# +3% [-3%]

* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.
^ Erratum : The approval and disapproval rates for Frederick Ma were 32% and 24% instead of 26% and 31% as reported in the original release.
# Erratum : The approval and disapproval rates for Stephen Lam were 26% and 31% instead of 32% and 24% as reported in the original release.

 

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Henry Tang, Elsie Leung and Rafael Hui were 70%, 36% and 33% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Ambrose Lee, Stephen Ip and Sarah Liao scored approval rates of over 50%, at 67%, 56% and 55% correspondingly.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity rating and support rate of Donald Tsang continued to drop in early August, a very clear signal that Tsang's honeymoon period is over. Tsang recently elaborated his policy directions, issued a 'Letter to Hong Kong', and drew people's attention to his forthcoming policy address. However, he was also caught in a debate on whether his introduction of executive order to regulate covert surveillance by law enforcement agencies was appropriate or not. All these will have important implications to his next wave of popularity rating. As for the principal officials, other than Ambrose Lee, the popularity ratings of all officials have dropped. York Chow registered the biggest drop of 5 marks, obviously caused by the threat of Streptococcus suis infection, which also indirectly explains the drop of CE's rating. Among the 14 principal officials, two have ratings below 50 and support rates below 33%." For discussions on "honeymoon period", please read Robert Chung's column article published yesterday.

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release will be August 16, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.