HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the Principal OfficialsBack


Press Release on July 12, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are first summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 18-21/4^ 3-6/5^ 21-24/5^ 20-23/6 4-6/7 Latest change
 Sample base 1,012 1,024 1,001 1,026 1,020 --
 Overall response rate 66.7% 64.4% 59.0% 61.9% 61.9% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.0 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.2 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.0 --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Rating of CE Donald Tsang 68.3 71.2 70.4 72.3 71.4 -0.9
 Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang 72% 77% 74% 75% 77% +2%
 Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang 9% 7% 9% 8% 7% -1%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
^ Donald Tsang was the Acting CE during the survey period.

 

The latest survey conducted in early July shows that, CE Donald Tsang scored 71.4 marks, while 77% supported him as the CE. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 1-3/3 1-6/4 3-6/5 1-3/6 4-6/7 Latest change
 Sample base 1,019 1,024 1,024 1,015 1,020 --
 Overall response rate 63.1% 63.1% 64.4% 65.6% 61.9% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 --
 FS Henry Tang 59.7 60.4 62.1 63.01 63.7 +0.7
 CS Rafael Hui Survey not started yet 60.5 --
 SJ Elsie Leung 48.2 49.9 51.4 50.2 54.3 +4.1
 Ex-CS Donald Tsang 63.7 69.32 71.22 Resigned
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 56.4 62.4 59.5 62.8 61.0 -1.8
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 53.9 59.5 57.2 60.5 59.8 -0.7
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 57.5 62.6 57.9 58.3 58.5 +0.2
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 54.8 59.0 57.1 60.5 57.4 -3.1
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 49.9 54.0 54.1 55.8 55.3 -0.5
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 50.4 54.7 53.2 53.7 53.8 +0.1
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 47.6 49.7 49.9 51.9 52.8 +0.9
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 47.2 50.1 50.3 51.5 52.3 +0.8
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 48.1 50.3 49.2 49.7 52.2 +2.5
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 44.5 48.0 48.2 49.83 51.3 +1.5
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 43.3 44.8 44.4 45.1 47.5 +2.4

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
1 Henry Tang was also the Acting Chief Executive at that time.
2 Donald Tsang was also the Acting Chief Executive at that time.
3 Michael Suen was also the Acting Chief Secretary at that time.

 

Our survey conducted in early July showed that the ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 60.5, 63.7 and 54.3 marks respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell on Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 61.0 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan, Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok ranked 2nd to 4th, scoring 59.8, 58.5 and 57.4 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung followed behind, attaining 55.3 and 53.8 marks respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung occupied the 7th to 10th ranks, who scored 52.8, 52.3, 52.2 and 51.3 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place with a popularity rating of 47.5 marks.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity rating of Donald Tsang has come down a bit from its record high, but his support rate has gone up a bit, both changes being within sampling errors. In other words, Tsang's popularity has not changed much after he stepped into his post-election honeymoon period. In fact, CE's high popularity might have helped the new Chief Secretary Rafael Hui attain his over 60 marks popularity rating and almost 60% recognition rate in such a short time. Among the principal officials, Henry Tang now has the highest score. Over the past month, Elsie Leung recorded the biggest increase, while York Chow registered the biggest drop. All officials other than Stephen Lam now have ratings over 50 marks."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be July 14, 2005, Thursday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of the non-official members of the Executive Council will be released. Then, on July 19, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, we will release the latest findings on the subjective freedom indicators.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.