HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, the third survey on CE election and a column articleBack

Popularity of Donald Tsang

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the first round of popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang after he formally becomes the CE, as well as the results of the third survey on CE election. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. The recent trend of Donald Tsang's popularity figures is summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
^ Donald Tsang was the Acting CE during the survey period.

The latest survey conducted in late June shows that, new CE Donald Tsang scored 72.3 marks, while 75% supported him as the CE.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed, "The latest popularity rating of Donald Tsang is 72.3 marks, which is a record high since we started to poll on his popularity in April 1997. This shows that Donald Tsang is now entering another honeymoon period after becoming the CE. However, in terms of popularity change, the jump this time is much smaller than that in mid-March when he became Acting CE. As for how long he could maintain himself at this popularity level, his performance in the coming month or two would be critical."

CE Election Surveys

With regard to the CE election survey, the result of many rounds of surveys conducted by POP in 1996 are now reorganized under the "CE Election Feature Page" of the POP Site. As for the CE election surveys in 2005, the results of the first two rounds have already been released. This third survey released today is the last one of the series, in which people's opinions of Donald Tsang's success and the whole process were gauged. Results are now tabulated below, together with the corresponding questions and figures obtained in 1996:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
**Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Figures reveal that, 52% of the respondents believed that Donald Tsang's success in the CE election has increased their confidence in the future of Hong Kong. Besides, 81% thought that Donald Tsang would do a better job than CH Tung as the CE. As for the whole CE election process, respondents' views were mixed, as 36% and 30% expressed satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the process respectively, while another 22% opted for "half-half".

This survey has also touched on the previous performance of the potential candidates during the election process. Respondents' opinions are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Our survey shows that 37% of the respondents thought that Donald Tsang was able to achieve his goal of facing the general public during the election process, whereas 30% held the opposite view and 22% opted for "half-half". Regarding Lee Wing-tat's contest for the CE nomination, 68% and 73% of the respondents said it had no influence on their perceptions towards Lee Wing-tat and the Democratic Party respectively, 15% and 12% said their negative feelings towards Lee Wing-tat and the Democratic Party have increased. Finally, 66% said that Chim Pui-chung's contest has not changed their perceptions towards him, while 18% said their negative feeling has increased.

Robert Chung observed, "People are apparently much more positive about Donald Tsang's recent victory than that of CH Tung in 1996, but there is little improvement in their appraisal of the election system. Only a minority considered Donald Tsang has achieved his goal to face the general public during the election process. Meanwhile, it seems that the participation of Lee Wing-tat and Chim Pui-chung has brought little effect to the image of themselves and the Democratic Party."

Column Article

POP Site and the Hong Kong Economic Journal today publish a column article written by Robert Chung, Director of POP, entitled "Does Tsang's Government respect Opinion Surveys?". The author requested the government to follow international standards of opinion research to release all the details of some Central Policy Unit surveys cited by Donald Tsang in his question-and-answer session in Legco yesterday. Chung wrote, "Tsang's use of opinion surveys yesterday was an advancement, but still far from ideal." He continued, "The government has frequently cited polls without giving details, due to poor civic standards and lazy journalism… Now that Tsang has promised to establish his new rule based on public opinion, he obviously needs to revolutionalize the government's attitude towards opinion research and polling, and give them the proper respect."

General Notes

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be June 30, 2005, Thursday, at 2 pm, when we will release the popularity figures of the HKSAR Government and survey results related to the Handover Anniversary. Then, on July 5, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.