HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of the Principal OfficialsBack


Press Release on June 10, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census, and are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 1-4/2 1-3/3 1-6/4 3-6/5 1-3/6 Latest change
 Sample base 1,019 1,019 1,024 1,024 1,015 --
 Overall response rate 61.5% 63.1% 63.1% 64.4% 65.6% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* @ +/- 1.4 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 --
 Ex-CS Donald Tsang 60.9 63.7 69.31 71.21 Resigned
 FS Henry Tang 58.1 59.7 60.4 62.1 63.02 +0.9
 SJ Elsie Leung 47.8 48.2 49.9 51.4 50.2 -1.2
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 60.7 56.4 62.4 59.5 62.8 +3.3
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 57.6 54.8 59.0 57.1 60.5 +3.4
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 57.1 53.9 59.5 57.2 60.5 +3.3
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 60.9 57.5 62.6 57.9 58.3 +0.4
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 53.1 49.9 54.0 54.1 55.8 +1.7
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 53.2 50.4 54.7 53.2 53.7 +0.5
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 48.4 47.6 49.7 49.9 51.9 +2.0
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 48.7 47.2 50.1 50.3 51.5 +1.2
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 45.4 44.5 48.0 48.2 49.83 +1.6
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 51.3 48.1 50.3 49.2 49.7 +0.5
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 44.7 43.3 44.8 44.4 45.1 +0.7

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
1 Donald Tsang was also the Acting Chief Executive at that time.
2 Henry Tang is also the Acting Chief Executive now.
3 Michael Suen is also the Acting Chief Secretary now.
@ Erratum: The label of error margins in the original release was mis-typed

 

Our survey conducted in early June showed that the ratings of FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 63.0 and 50.2 marks respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell on Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 62.8 marks. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung ranked 2nd to 4th, scoring 60.5, 60.5 and 58.3 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang occupied the 5th to 8th ranks, who scored 55.8, 53.7, 51.9 and 51.5 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping followed behind, attaining 49.8 and 49.7 marks respectively. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place with a popularity rating of 45.1 marks.

 

As for the popularity indicators based on people's hypothetical reappointment or dismissal votes, the approval and disapproval rates of the Principal Officials are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 1-3/12/04 1-4/2/05 1-6/4/05 11-14/4/05 1-3/6 Latest change*
 Sample base 1,004 1,019 1,024 1,009 1,015 --
 Overall response rate 65.7% 61.5% 63.1% 62.8% 65.6% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)** +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Ex-CS Donald Tsang 59% [9%] 64% [6%] Acting CE Resigned
 FS Henry Tang 63% [7%] 61% [8%] 61% [6%] 60% [4%] 63% [5%] +3% [+1%]^
 SJ Elsie Leung 30% [34%] 30% [35%] 31% [30%] -- 35% [30%] +4% [--]
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 68% [3%] 68% [3%] 65% [3%] -- 70% [3%] +5% [--]
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 55% [5%] 56% [5%] 54% [9%] -- 60% [8%] +6% [-1%]
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 53% [7%] 55% [6%] 56% [5%] -- 59% [5%] +3% [--]
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 65% [9%] 68% [7%] 65% [7%] -- 56% [16%] -9% [+9%]
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 45% [24%] 46% [23%] 44% [22%] -- 45% [24%] +1% [+2%]
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 28% [6%] 31% [10%] 29% [9%] -- 37% [7%] +8% [-2%]
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 22% [47%] 25% [40%] 28% [33%] -- 37% [30%] +9% [-3%]
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 32% [25%] 29% [23%] 29% [24%] -- 36% [20%] +7% [-4%]
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 40% [19%] 38% [21%] 34% [22%] -- 36% [26%] +2% [+4%]
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 28% [26%] 31% [22%] 32% [25%] -- 34% [23%] +2% [-2%]
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 24% [31%] 23% [32%] 23% [32%] -- 23% [34%] -- [+2%]

* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of popularity ratings.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.
^ To match the figures of other Principal Officials, compared to 2 months ago, Henry Tang's support rate increased by 2 percentage points, while that of vote of confidence dropped by 1 percentage point.

 

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 63% and 35% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Ambrose Lee, York Chow, Stephen Ip and Sarah Liao scored approval rates of over 50%, at 70%, 60%, 59% and 56% correspondingly.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to one month ago, the popularity of practically all Principal Officials has increased. Among the Directors of Bureaux , Sarah Liao registered the least gain and dropped to the fourth position, obviously caused by the Eastern Harbour Tunnel toll increase and recent traffic problems. Donald Tsang fell outside the scope of the survey after he resigned to stand for the CE election. Henry Tang and Michael Suen became Acting CE and Acting CS, but that did not help their popularity very much. Stephen Lam continued to register poor popularity, he is the only official with more people asking for his dismissal than reappointment."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, but because we have added releases on the CE election, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be changed to June 13, 2005, Monday, at 2 pm, when we release the second round of survey on CE election. Then, on June 15, 2005, Wednesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current social conditions and people's ethnic identity will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.