HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the most well-known political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the most well-known political groups. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census, and are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

Findings obtained in late May showed that, the top 3 on the list of the most well-known political groups were Article 45 Concern Group (A45 Concern Gp), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU) and Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), attaining 54.0, 52.5 and 52.2 marks correspondingly. Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) ranked 4th to 6th, with support ratings of 49.0, 48.3 and 47.4 marks respectively. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC), Frontier, and April Fifth Action (AFA) in respective order. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 51.2 marks.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity of the ten most well-known political groups has generally improved in the past three months. CTU, HKASPDMC, and DP have registered significant increases statistically, probably because June 4 anniversary is near. If we look at changes since the formation of the new Legco, the popularity of DAB and FTU has been on an upward trend, while that of Frontier and AFA has been moving downward. Article 45 Concern Group, however, has remained at the top throughout, meaning that the political spectrum of the democratic camp continues to expand, while the popularity of the pro-China camp keeps rising, and Liberal Party plays steady in the middle rank. The effect of the CE election on the popularity of different political groups is yet to be seen."

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between May 3-6. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between May 21-24, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate was also dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, but because we have added releases on CE election, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be June 10, 2005, Friday, at 2 pm, we will release the latest popularity figures of the Principal Officials. Then, on June 13, 2005, Monday, at 2 pm, the second round of survey on CE election will be released. Besides, the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current social conditions and people's ethnic identity will be released on June 15, 2005, Wednesday, at 2 pm.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.