HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of the Acting CE and the Principal OfficialsBack


Press Release on May 10, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of Acting CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the census results. Recent figures on the popularity of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

 
  CH Tung's term Donald Tsang's term
 Date of survey 1-3/3 16/3 1-6/4 11-14/4 18-21/4 3-6/5 Latest change
 Sample base 1,019 1,041 1,024 1,009 1,012 1,024 --
 Overall response rate 63.1% 65.2% 63.1% 62.8% 66.7% 64.4% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% conf. level)* @ +/- 1.4 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.2 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.0 --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Rating of CE/Acting CE 47.9** 70.4 69.3 71.8 68.3 71.2 +2.9
 Vote of confidence in CE/Acting CE 18% 68% 69% 73% 72% 77% +5%
 Vote of no confidence in CE/Acting CE 69% 9% 12% 9% 9% 7% -2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** The parallel rating of Donald Tsang as Chief Secretary was 63.7 marks.
@ Erratum: The error margins reported in the original release were mis-typed

 

The latest survey conducted in early May showed that, Acting CE Donald Tsang scored 71.2 marks, and 77% supported him as the Chief Executive. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 1-3/3 16/3 1-6/4 11-14/4 3-6/5 Latest change
 Sample base 1,019 1,041 1,024 1,009 1,024 --
 Overall response rate 63.1% 65.2% 63.1% 62.8% 64.4% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* @ +/- 1.6 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.6 --
 CS Donald Tsang 63.7 As Acting CE already
 FS Henry Tang 59.7 63.3 60.4 62.3 62.1 -0.2**
 SJ Elsie Leung 48.2 -- 49.9 -- 51.4 +1.5
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 56.4 -- 62.4 -- 59.5 -2.9
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 57.5 -- 62.6 -- 57.9 -4.7
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 53.9 -- 59.5 -- 57.2 -2.3
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 54.8 -- 59.0 -- 57.1 -1.9
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 49.9 -- 54.0 -- 54.1 +0.1
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 50.4 -- 54.7 -- 53.2 -1.5
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 47.2 -- 50.1 -- 50.3 +0.2
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 47.6 -- 49.7 -- 49.9 +0.2
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 48.1 -- 50.3 -- 49.2 -1.1
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 44.5 -- 48.0 -- 48.2 +0.2
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 43.3 -- 44.8 -- 44.4 -0.4

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** If basing on the rating registered in early April, so as to correspond to the comparisons among other Principal Officials, Henry Tang's rating rose 1.7 marks when comparing to a month ago.
@ Erratum: The error margins reported in the original release were mis-typed

 

Survey conducted in early May showed that, the ratings of FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 62.1 and 51.4 marks respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong with 59.5 marks. Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok ranked 2nd to 4th, who scored 57.9, 57.2 and 57.1 marks respectively. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung followed behind, scoring 54.1 and 53.2 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung, who attained 50.3, 49.9, 49.2 and 48.2 marks in respective orders. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place with popularity rating of 44.4 marks.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed, "Both the popularity rating and approval rate of Donald Tsang have surged over the last two weeks, his approval rate now stands at almost 80%. Tsang has obviously passed the first popularity test, after his well-received performance at the Legco question-and-answer session. As for the popularity of the principal officials, there were ups and downs over the last month. Sarah Liao registered the biggest drop, of almost 5 marks, no doubt caused by the toll increase at the Eastern Harbour Tunnel. Her popularity may continue to be compressed by recent traffic problems."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release will be May 17, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.